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Omiya Ardija v Vanraure Hachinohe

Omiya Ardija

3–1Full time

Vanraure Hachinohe

J2 League · SAT 10 OCT · NACK5 Stadium Omiya

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 08:32

Omiya Ardija 3–1 Vanraure Hachinohe OMIYA ARDIJA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Omiya Ardija win~~53%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.325

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.272

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Omiya Ardija win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Omiya Ardija was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–24–22
1′KICK-OFF Omiya Ardija v Vanraure Hachinohe
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Omiya Ardija 1–0 Vanraure Hachinohe
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Omiya Ardija 1–0 Vanraure Hachinohe
45′SECOND HALF Omiya Ardija 1–0 Vanraure Hachinohe
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Omiya Ardija 2–0 Vanraure Hachinohe · Y. Ozaki
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Omiya Ardija 2–0 Vanraure Hachinohe
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Vanraure Hachinohe · On: K. Nagata · Off: S. Nakano
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Vanraure Hachinohe · On: W. Owie · Off: R. Sawakami
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Omiya Ardija 2–1 Vanraure Hachinohe · R. Nishio
64′⚽ GOAL · 66' Omiya Ardija 2–1 Vanraure Hachinohe
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Omiya Ardija 3–1 Vanraure Hachinohe · R. Nishio
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Omiya Ardija 3–1 Vanraure Hachinohe
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Omiya Ardija 3–1 Vanraure Hachinohe
75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Omiya Ardija · On: K. Sugimoto · Off: O. Yamamoto
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Vanraure Hachinohe · On: Y. Igari · Off: S. Takayoshi
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Vanraure Hachinohe · On: M. Shintani · Off: A. Sato
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Omiya Ardija · On: Kaua Diniz · Off: Carlinhos Junior
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Omiya Ardija
92′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Omiya Ardija
FTFULL TIME Omiya Ardija 3–1 Vanraure Hachinohe
FTOmiya Ardija 3–1 Vanraure Hachinohe · Omiya Ardija win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Omiya Ardija win53%

Draw24%

Vanraure Hachinohe win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 06:00

Venue · NACK5 Stadium Omiya

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Omiya Ardija

Formation not confirmed

24 T. Glover

37 K. Sekiguchi

88 R. Nishio

19 Y. Ozaki

3 H. Kato

47 M. Edward

16 G. Kato

18 O. Yamamoto

11 Caprini

9 Carlinhos Junior

14 T. Izumi

Coach · Narcis Pelach

Substitutes

50 · M. Wakabayashi

22 · R. Motegi

13 · O. Iyoha

44 · S. Kidera

8 · Kaua Diniz

15 · K. Nakayama

77 · Y. Kobayashi

23 · K. Sugimoto

49 · J. McGhee

Vanraure Hachinohe

Formation not confirmed

13 S. Onishi

11 H. Yukie

15 K. Sasaki

3 Y. Sawada

29 K. Oka

34 S. Takayoshi

17 Y. Sato

8 S. Otoizumi

7 A. Sato

99 S. Nakano

10 R. Sawakami

Coach · Keiji Kuraishi

Substitutes

25 · Y. Taniguchi

4 · S. Suzuki

80 · K. Nagata

33 · Y. Igari

24 · R. Kurisawa

30 · Y. Inami

6 · F. Unoki

88 · M. Shintani

35 · W. Owie

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Omiya Ardija

Formation not confirmed

24 T. Glover

37 K. Sekiguchi

88 R. Nishio

19 Y. Ozaki

3 H. Kato

47 M. Edward

16 G. Kato

18 O. Yamamoto

11 Caprini

9 Carlinhos Junior

14 T. Izumi

Coach · Narcis Pelach

Substitutes

50 · M. Wakabayashi

22 · R. Motegi

13 · O. Iyoha

44 · S. Kidera

8 · Kaua Diniz

15 · K. Nakayama

77 · Y. Kobayashi

23 · K. Sugimoto

49 · J. McGhee

Vanraure Hachinohe

Formation not confirmed

13 S. Onishi

11 H. Yukie

15 K. Sasaki

3 Y. Sawada

29 K. Oka

34 S. Takayoshi

17 Y. Sato

8 S. Otoizumi

7 A. Sato

99 S. Nakano

10 R. Sawakami

Coach · Keiji Kuraishi

Substitutes

25 · Y. Taniguchi

4 · S. Suzuki

80 · K. Nagata

33 · Y. Igari

24 · R. Kurisawa

30 · Y. Inami

6 · F. Unoki

88 · M. Shintani

35 · W. Owie

Our number · omiya ardija winPublished 10 Oct 06:01

53% The market57%

Us53%

~~Market~~57%

We make Omiya Ardija a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Omiya Ardija win	53%	57%	−4
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Vanraure Hachinohe win	22%	19%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	50%	57%	−8
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	36%	−8
Omiya Ardija or draw	78%	81%	−3
Omiya Ardija clean sheet	38%	–	–
Vanraure Hachinohe clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.8%

0123450 7.2 7.0 3.4 1 11.8 11.3 5.6 2 9.8 9.4 4.6 3 5.5 5.3 2.6 4 2.3 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Omiya Ardija down, Vanraure Hachinohe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,248 J2 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Omiya Ardija at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Vanraure Hachinohe away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Omiya Ardija, 0.99 for Vanraure Hachinohe. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in J2 League

OMIYA ARDIJA

DDDDWD2–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 1–1

VANRAURE HACHINOHE

WDLLWL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	9	+9	20
2	Albirex Niigata	9	0	19
3	Kataller Toyama	9	+9	17
4	Omiya Ardija	9	+9	17
5	Yokohama FC	9	+7	17
6	Shonan Bellmare	9	+2	16
7	Fujieda MYFC	9	+3	13
8	Blaublitz Akita	9	+2	13
9	Tokushima Vortis	9	−1	13
10	Montedio Yamagata	9	+3	12
11	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	9	0	12
12	Oita Trinita	9	+2	11
13	Tochigi City	9	0	10
14	Jubilo Iwata	9	−2	10
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	9	−9	10
16	Iwaki	9	−5	9
17	Sagan Tosu	9	−4	8
18	Consadole Sapporo	9	−6	8
19	Imabari	9	−9	7
20	Ventforet Kofu	9	−10	7