Omiya Ardija v Kataller Toyama prediction · J2 League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30

Omiya Ardija 0–3 Kataller Toyama OMIYA ARDIJA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Omiya Ardija win~~46%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.792

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.705

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Omiya Ardija win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Omiya Ardija 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–28
1′KICK-OFF Omiya Ardija v Kataller Toyama
21′We said Omiya Ardija at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–9
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Omiya Ardija 1–0 Kataller Toyama
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Omiya Ardija win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
22′GOAL DISALLOWED · 22' Omiya Ardija
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Omiya Ardija win: 46% at kick-off, 43% now
45′SECOND HALF Omiya Ardija 0–0 Kataller Toyama
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Omiya Ardija win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
46′HALF-TIME Omiya Ardija 0–0 Kataller Toyama
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Omiya Ardija win 38%)
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Kataller Toyama
51′We said Omiya Ardija at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–42–23
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 32–45–22
60′We said Omiya Ardija at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–4
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Omiya Ardija 1–0 Kataller Toyama
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Omiya Ardija win: 46% at kick-off, 79% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Omiya Ardija win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 48%)
60′GOAL DISALLOWED · 60' Omiya Ardija
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Omiya Ardija win: 46% at kick-off, 30% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Omiya Ardija win 79%)
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Omiya Ardija 0–1 Kataller Toyama
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Omiya Ardija win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Kataller Toyama win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 51%)
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Kataller Toyama · On: Y. Kunitake · Off: T. Kim
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Kataller Toyama · On: K. Ogawa · Off: T. Yoshihira
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Kataller Toyama · On: K. Tsuboi · Off: M. Furukawa
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Omiya Ardija 0–2 Kataller Toyama
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Omiya Ardija · On: Y. Toyokawa · Off: Y. Kobayashi
72′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Omiya Ardija · On: K. Sugimoto · Off: Carlinhos Junior
72′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Omiya Ardija · On: K. Nakayama · Off: S. Kidera Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Omiya Ardija · On: K. Nakayama · Off: M. Edward
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Omiya Ardija
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Omiya Ardija · On: H. Hidaka · Off: O. Yamamoto
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Kataller Toyama · On: S. Mizoguchi · Off: S. Nishiya
90′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Omiya Ardija 0–3 Kataller Toyama
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Kataller Toyama · On: J. Imase · Off: G. Takenaka
92′Kataller Toyama score on 90′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Omiya Ardija 0–3 Kataller Toyama
FTOmiya Ardija 0–3 Kataller Toyama · Omiya Ardija win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Omiya Ardija are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Omiya Ardija 46%, draw 25%, Kataller Toyama 28%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Omiya Ardija v Kataller ToyamaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Omiya Ardija win46%

Draw25%

Kataller Toyama win28%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueNACK5 Stadium Omiya

Line-ups

Omiya Ardija

Kataller Toyama

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Omiya Ardija

Kataller Toyama

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Omiya Ardija	11	+10	20
4	Kataller Toyama	11	+9	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Omiya Ardija

Formation not confirmed

24 T. Glover

44 S. Kidera

5 Gabriel

88 R. Nishio

3 H. Kato

47 M. Edward

16 G. Kato

18 O. Yamamoto

77 Y. Kobayashi

9 Carlinhos Junior

14 T. Izumi

Coach · Narcis Pelach

Substitutes

50 · M. Wakabayashi

22 · R. Motegi

19 · Y. Ozaki

13 · O. Iyoha

15 · K. Nakayama

23 · K. Sugimoto

10 · Y. Toyokawa

11 · Caprini

20 · H. Hidaka

Kataller Toyama

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Hirao

23 S. Nishiya

56 S. Okamoto

27 Kang Min-Woo

33 Y. Takahashi

34 G. Takenaka

14 S. Tanimoto

28 S. Fuseya

9 T. Yoshihira

11 T. Kim

39 M. Furukawa

Coach · Ryo Adachi

Substitutes

31 · Koh Bong-jo

5 · J. Imase

8 · D. Matsuoka

32 · S. Mizoguchi

6 · S. Sera

55 · Y. Kunitake

15 · K. Tsuboi

13 · K. Ogawa

30 · Y. Nakashima

Our number · omiya ardija winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

46% The market43%

Us46%

~~Market~~43%

We make Omiya Ardija a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Omiya Ardija v Kataller Toyama~~1.55 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 20 v 19~~2 v 4

~~The market · Omiya Ardija win~~43% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Omiya Ardija win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Omiya Ardija win	46%	43%	+3
Draw	25%	25%	0
Kataller Toyama win	28%	32%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	50%	66%	−16
Both teams to score	53%	67%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	75%	84%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	29%	45%	−16
Omiya Ardija or draw	72%	68%	+4
Omiya Ardija clean sheet	32%	–	–
Kataller Toyama clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.0 7.8 4.5 1 10.5 11.9 6.8 2.6 2 8.1 9.1 5.2 2.0 3 4.2 4.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Omiya Ardija down, Kataller Toyama across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,268 J2 League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Omiya Ardija at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kataller Toyama away: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Omiya Ardija, 1.15 for Kataller Toyama. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KAT 0–2 OMI · OMI 2–2 KAT · OMI 1–2 KAT · KAT 1–1 OMI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 12 Sept

OMIYA ARDIJA

DDWDWL0–0 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–2

KATALLER TOYAMA

DWDWDD0–0 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	11	+10	24
2	Omiya Ardija	11	+10	20
3	Albirex Niigata	11	−4	20
4	Kataller Toyama	11	+9	19
5	Yokohama FC	11	+6	18
6	Shonan Bellmare	11	+2	18
7	Oita Trinita	11	+7	17
8	Iwaki	11	+1	15
9	Fujieda MYFC	11	+2	14
10	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	11	0	14
11	Jubilo Iwata	11	−1	14
12	Sagan Tosu	11	−2	14
13	Tokushima Vortis	11	−2	14
14	Consadole Sapporo	12	−4	14
15	Blaublitz Akita	11	0	13
16	Montedio Yamagata	12	0	13
17	Tochigi City	11	−1	11
18	Imabari	11	−8	11
19	Vanraure Hachinohe	11	−11	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	11	−14	10