Oita Trinita v Ventforet Kofu prediction · J2 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Oita TrinitaDrawVentforet Kofu

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Oita Trinita 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oita Trinita are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oita Trinita 45%, draw 28%, Ventforet Kofu 27%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Oita Trinita v Ventforet KofuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Oita Trinita win45%

Draw28%

Ventforet Kofu win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueResonac Dome Oita

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oita Trinita

Ventforet Kofu

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J2 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Oita Trinita	12	+7	18
20	Ventforet Kofu	12	−17	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oita trinita winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

45% The market50%

Us45%

~~Market~~50%

We make Oita Trinita a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oita Trinita v Ventforet Kofu~~1.31 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 18 v 10~~7 v 20

~~The market · Oita Trinita win~~50% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Oita Trinita win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oita Trinita win	45%	50%	−5
Draw	28%	28%	0
Ventforet Kofu win	27%	22%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	40%	42%	−2
Both teams to score	45%	46%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	23%	−3
Oita Trinita or draw	73%	78%	−5
Oita Trinita clean sheet	39%	–	–
Ventforet Kofu clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 10.6 9.9 4.7 1 13.5 12.8 6.1 2 8.9 8.4 4.0 3 3.9 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oita Trinita down, Ventforet Kofu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,280 J2 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oita Trinita at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ventforet Kofu away: 0.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Oita Trinita, 0.95 for Ventforet Kofu. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VEN 2–0 OIT · OIT 2–1 VEN · OIT 0–0 VEN · VEN 1–2 OIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept

OITA TRINITA

DDWWWD1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 0–0

VENTFORET KOFU

LLLWLL0–1 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	12	+12	27
2	Albirex Niigata	12	−3	23
3	Kataller Toyama	12	+12	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	+9	22
5	Omiya Ardija	13	+7	21
6	Shonan Bellmare	12	+2	19
7	Oita Trinita	12	+7	18
8	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	12	+1	17
9	Tokushima Vortis	13	−2	17
10	Iwaki	12	+1	16
11	Fujieda MYFC	13	+1	15
12	Jubilo Iwata	12	−1	15
13	Sagan Tosu	12	−3	14
14	Consadole Sapporo	12	−4	14
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	12	−10	14
16	Montedio Yamagata	12	0	13
17	Blaublitz Akita	12	−1	13
18	Tochigi City	12	−1	12
19	Imabari	12	−10	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	12	−17	10