Oita Trinita v Albirex Niigata

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Albirex Niigata win at 42%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Oita Trinita v Albirex Niigata
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Albirex Niigata was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 30–28–42
4. 21′We said Albirex Niigata at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 61–24–15
5. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Oita Trinita 1–0 Albirex Niigata
6. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Albirex Niigata win: 42% at kick-off, 15% now
7. 21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Oita Trinita win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Albirex Niigata win 15%)
8. 22′A goal for Oita Trinita on 22′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 62–24–15
9. 24′We said Albirex Niigata at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
10. 31′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 64–24–12
11. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Albirex Niigata win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
12. 40′We said Albirex Niigata at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 90–8–2
13. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Oita Trinita 2–0 Albirex Niigata
14. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Albirex Niigata win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
15. 42′Oita Trinita score on 41′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 90–8–2
16. 44′We said Albirex Niigata at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 67–24–9
17. 44′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 67–24–9
18. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Oita Trinita 2–1 Albirex Niigata
19. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Albirex Niigata win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
20. 45′Albirex Niigata find the net on 44′. 2–1. 2–1 · 68–23–9
21. 45′SECOND HALF Oita Trinita 2–1 Albirex Niigata
22. 48′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 92–7–2
23. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Albirex Niigata · On: K. Kasai · Off: T. Osawa
24. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Albirex Niigata · On: R. Maeda · Off: T. Arai
25. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Oita Trinita 3–1 Albirex Niigata
26. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Albirex Niigata win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
27. 49′HALF-TIME Oita Trinita 2–1 Albirex Niigata
28. 50′A goal for Oita Trinita on 49′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 92–6–1
29. 56′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 99–1–0
30. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Oita Trinita 4–1 Albirex Niigata
31. 57′Oita Trinita score on 57′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
32. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Oita Trinita · On: D. Furukawa · Off: K. Arima
33. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Albirex Niigata · On: K. Shimabuku · Off: M. Moraes
34. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Oita Trinita · On: K. Sakakibara · Off: Y. Nishimura
35. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Oita Trinita · On: M. Kimoto · Off: Patrick Verhon
36. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Albirex Niigata · On: K. Kuwayama · Off: Y. Wakatsuki
37. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Albirex Niigata · On: Iury Castilho · Off: C. Konagaya
38. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Oita Trinita · On: H. Kiyotake · Off: Matheus Leiria
39. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Oita Trinita · On: I. Oda · Off: T. Shige
40. 94′6 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
41. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Oita Trinita 5–1 Albirex Niigata
42. 95′Oita Trinita find the net on 90′. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
43. FTFULL TIME Oita Trinita 5–1 Albirex Niigata
44. FTOita Trinita 5–1 Albirex Niigata · Albirex Niigata win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.