Montedio Yamagata v Vegalta Sendai prediction · J2 League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 08:03

Montedio Yamagata 0–1 Vegalta Sendai MONTEDIO YAMAGATA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Montedio Yamagata win~~41%

~~The market said~~26%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.675

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.413

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Montedio Yamagata win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Montedio Yamagata was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–33
1′KICK-OFF Montedio Yamagata v Vegalta Sendai
2′Much as we predicted: Montedio Yamagata was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
11′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Vegalta Sendai
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Montedio Yamagata 0–1 Vegalta Sendai
25′⚽ GOAL · 26' Montedio Yamagata 0–1 Vegalta Sendai
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Montedio Yamagata 1–1 Vegalta Sendai · R. Asakura
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Montedio Yamagata 0–1 Vegalta Sendai
32′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Montedio Yamagata
45′SECOND HALF Montedio Yamagata 0–1 Vegalta Sendai
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Montedio Yamagata
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Montedio Yamagata · On: K. Sakamoto · Off: Lee Dong-Hee
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Montedio Yamagata · On: K. Yanagimachi · Off: R. Kida
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Montedio Yamagata · On: K. Sakamoto · Off: Lee Dong-Hee
68′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Vegalta Sendai
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Vegalta Sendai
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Vegalta Sendai
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vegalta Sendai · On: H. Kamada · Off: H. Iwabuchi
73′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Vegalta Sendai
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Vegalta Sendai · On: K. Miyazaki · Off: T. Umeki
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Vegalta Sendai · On: R. Matsui · Off: M. Okuyama
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Montedio Yamagata · On: A. S. Disaro · Off: J. Takahashi
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Montedio Yamagata · On: S. Horikane · Off: R. Kawana
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Vegalta Sendai · On: A. Kudo · Off: H. Takeda
FTFULL TIME Montedio Yamagata 0–1 Vegalta Sendai
FTMontedio Yamagata 0–1 Vegalta Sendai · Montedio Yamagata win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Montedio Yamagata win41%

Draw26%

Vegalta Sendai win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 05:05

VenueND Soft Stadium Yamagata

Line-ups

Montedio Yamagata

Vegalta Sendai

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Montedio Yamagata

Vegalta Sendai

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Vegalta Sendai	9	+9	20
12	Montedio Yamagata	9	+3	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Montedio Yamagata

Formation not confirmed

34 R. Sato

15 A. Kawai

2 Lee Dong-Hee

38 R. Morioka

5 H. Sugii

17 T. Terayama

8 S. Doi

7 R. Nakamura

10 R. Kida

9 J. Takahashi

77 R. Kawana

Coach · Akinobu Yokouchi

Substitutes

1 · T. Shibuya

49 · K. Sakamoto

14 · K. Yanagimachi

13 · H. Nodake

18 · R. Yokoyama

39 · K. Mori

55 · S. Horikane

20 · Yoshio Kaina

11 · A. S. Disaro

Vegalta Sendai

Formation not confirmed

33 A. Hayashi

22 R. Takada

5 M. Sugata

19 Mateus Moraes

3 M. Okuyama

37 Y. Sugiyama

8 H. Takeda

80 R. Asakura

14 R. Sagara

27 H. Iwabuchi

18 T. Umeki

Coach · Yoshiro Moriyama

Substitutes

1 · D. Hotta

55 · Han Ho-gang

6 · R. Matsui

17 · A. Kudo

10 · H. Kamada

47 · S. Araki

15 · S. Minami

9 · K. Miyazaki

11 · K. Kobayashi

Our number · montedio yamagata winPublished 11 Oct 05:01

41% The market26%

Us41%

~~Market~~26%

We make Montedio Yamagata a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · montedio yamagata win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 27% to 26% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Montedio Yamagata win	41%	26%	+15
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Vegalta Sendai win	33%	48%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	48%	50%	−2
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−3
Montedio Yamagata or draw	67%	52%	+14
Montedio Yamagata clean sheet	30%	–	–
Vegalta Sendai clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.5 9.2 5.6 2.3 1 10.3 12.3 7.5 3.1 2 7.0 8.5 5.2 2.1 3 3.3 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Montedio Yamagata down, Vegalta Sendai across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,254 J2 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Montedio Yamagata at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Vegalta Sendai away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Montedio Yamagata, 1.23 for Vegalta Sendai. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VEG 3–1 MON · MON 3–4 VEG · MON 1–1 VEG · VEG 2–0 MON

Form · last six in J2 League

MONTEDIO YAMAGATA

WLLLWL3–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

VEGALTA SENDAI

WWDWWW4–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omiya Ardija	10	+11	20
2	Vegalta Sendai	9	+9	20
3	Albirex Niigata	9	0	19
4	Kataller Toyama	9	+9	17
5	Yokohama FC	10	+6	17
6	Shonan Bellmare	9	+2	16
7	Oita Trinita	10	+3	14
8	Fujieda MYFC	10	+2	13
9	Blaublitz Akita	9	+2	13
10	Jubilo Iwata	10	−1	13
11	Tokushima Vortis	10	−2	13
12	Montedio Yamagata	9	+3	12
13	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	9	0	12
14	Sagan Tosu	10	−3	11
15	Tochigi City	10	−1	10
16	Imabari	10	−8	10
17	Ventforet Kofu	10	−9	10
18	Vanraure Hachinohe	10	−11	10
19	Iwaki	9	−5	9
20	Consadole Sapporo	10	−7	8