Montedio Yamagata v Tegevajaro Miyazaki prediction · J2 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Montedio YamagataDrawTegevajaro Miyazaki

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Montedio Yamagata 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Montedio Yamagata are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Montedio Yamagata 45%, draw 26%, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 30%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Montedio Yamagata v Tegevajaro MiyazakiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Montedio Yamagata win45%

Draw26%

Tegevajaro Miyazaki win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueND Soft Stadium Yamagata

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Montedio Yamagata

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J2 League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	12	+1	17
16	Montedio Yamagata	12	0	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · montedio yamagata winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

45% The market30%

Us45%

~~Market~~30%

We make Montedio Yamagata a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Montedio Yamagata v Tegevajaro Miyazaki~~1.48 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 17~~16 v 8

~~The market · Montedio Yamagata win~~30% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Montedio Yamagata win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Montedio Yamagata win	45%	30%	+15
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Tegevajaro Miyazaki win	30%	42%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	49%	48%	+1
Both teams to score	53%	53%	0
Over 1.5 goals	74%	71%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	28%	−1
Montedio Yamagata or draw	70%	58%	+12
Montedio Yamagata clean sheet	32%	–	–
Tegevajaro Miyazaki clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.4 8.2 4.8 1 10.5 12.1 7.0 2.7 2 7.8 8.9 5.1 2.0 3 3.9 4.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Montedio Yamagata down, Tegevajaro Miyazaki across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,278 J2 League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021.

Home and away form

Montedio Yamagata at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tegevajaro Miyazaki away: 1.40 scored, 1.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Montedio Yamagata, 1.16 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 18 Sept

MONTEDIO YAMAGATA

LWLLDL0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–2

TEGEVAJARO MIYAZAKI

WWDDDW3–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	12	+12	27
2	Albirex Niigata	12	−3	23
3	Kataller Toyama	12	+12	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	+9	22
5	Omiya Ardija	13	+7	21
6	Shonan Bellmare	12	+2	19
7	Oita Trinita	12	+7	18
8	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	12	+1	17
9	Tokushima Vortis	13	−2	17
10	Iwaki	12	+1	16
11	Fujieda MYFC	13	+1	15
12	Jubilo Iwata	12	−1	15
13	Sagan Tosu	12	−3	14
14	Consadole Sapporo	12	−4	14
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	12	−10	14
16	Montedio Yamagata	12	0	13
17	Blaublitz Akita	12	−1	13
18	Tochigi City	12	−1	12
19	Imabari	12	−10	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	12	−17	10