

Montedio Yamagata v Consadole Sapporo
Montedio Yamagata
Consadole SapporoJ2 League · WED 21 OCT · ND Soft Stadium Yamagata
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Montedio Yamagata win at 54%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Montedio Yamagata was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–23
- 1′KICK-OFF Montedio Yamagata v Consadole Sapporo
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Montedio Yamagata win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
- 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Consadole Sapporo
- 44′We said Montedio Yamagata at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–36–22
- 45′SECOND HALF Montedio Yamagata 0–0 Consadole Sapporo
- 46′HALF-TIME Montedio Yamagata 0–0 Consadole Sapporo
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Montedio Yamagata · On: H. Nodake · Off: Yoshio Kaina
- 51′We said Montedio Yamagata at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–21
- 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 37–43–20
- 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Montedio Yamagata win 40%)
- 61′We said Montedio Yamagata at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
- 61′We said Montedio Yamagata at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Montedio Yamagata win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
- 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Montedio Yamagata 0–1 Consadole Sapporo
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Montedio Yamagata win: 54% at kick-off, 9% now
- 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Consadole Sapporo win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 48%)
- 62′A goal for Consadole Sapporo on 62′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–25–67
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Montedio Yamagata · On: J. Takahashi · Off: A. S. Disaro
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Consadole Sapporo · On: H. Miyazawa · Off: S. Kido
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Consadole Sapporo · On: H. Miyazawa · Off: S. Kido
- 72′We said Montedio Yamagata at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Montedio Yamagata win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Montedio Yamagata · On: S. Doi · Off: R. Kawana
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Montedio Yamagata · On: K. Mori · Off: S. Horikane
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Consadole Sapporo · On: T. Arano · Off: R. Aoki
- 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Montedio Yamagata 0–2 Consadole Sapporo
- 84′Consadole Sapporo score on 84′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Montedio Yamagata · On: R. Kida · Off: K. Yanagimachi
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Consadole Sapporo · On: S. Sarachat · Off: S. Toyama
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Consadole Sapporo · On: Park Min-Gyu · Off: K. Konomi
- 94′Full time, 0–2. We called Montedio Yamagata at 54% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–2 · 0–0–100
- FTFULL TIME Montedio Yamagata 0–2 Consadole Sapporo
- FTMontedio Yamagata 0–2 Consadole Sapporo · Montedio Yamagata win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Montedio Yamagata are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Montedio Yamagata 54%, draw 23%, Consadole Sapporo 23%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Montedio Yamagata win54%
Consadole Sapporo win23%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 05:00
RoundMatchday 12
VenueND Soft Stadium Yamagata
Match timeline
All events
Montedio YamagataMIN
Consadole SapporoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Montedio Yamagata
Consadole Sapporo
Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League
Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Montedio Yamagata a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montedio Yamagata win | 54% | 40% | +14 |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | −4 |
| Consadole Sapporo win | 23% | 32% | −9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 51% | +5 |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 30% | +4 |
| Montedio Yamagata or draw | 77% | 68% | +9 |
| Montedio Yamagata clean sheet | 33% | – | – |
| Consadole Sapporo clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2022Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 13 Sept
MONTEDIO YAMAGATA
CONSADOLE SAPPORO
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 | Omiya Ardija | 11 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 | Albirex Niigata | 11 | −4 | 20 |
| 4 | Kataller Toyama | 11 | +9 | 19 |
| 5 | Yokohama FC | 11 | +6 | 18 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 11 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 | Iwaki | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Fujieda MYFC | 11 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Jubilo Iwata | 11 | −1 | 14 |
| 12 | Sagan Tosu | 11 | −2 | 14 |
| 13 | Tokushima Vortis | 11 | −2 | 14 |
| 14 | Montedio Yamagata | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 15 | Blaublitz Akita | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | Tochigi City | 11 | −1 | 11 |
| 17 | Consadole Sapporo | 11 | −6 | 11 |
| 18 | Imabari | 11 | −8 | 11 |
| 19 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 11 | −11 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 11 | −14 | 10 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Vegalta Sendai
Omiya Ardija
Albirex Niigata
Kataller Toyama
Yokohama FC
Shonan Bellmare
Oita Trinita
Iwaki
Fujieda MYFC
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Jubilo Iwata
Sagan Tosu
Tokushima Vortis
Blaublitz Akita
Tochigi City
Imabari
Vanraure Hachinohe
Ventforet Kofu