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Montedio Yamagata v Consadole Sapporo

Montedio Yamagata
0–2Full time
Consadole Sapporo

J2 League · WED 21 OCT · ND Soft Stadium Yamagata

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 07:30
Montedio Yamagata 0–2 Consadole Sapporo MONTEDIO YAMAGATA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Montedio Yamagata win54%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.929
The market’s Brier score0.695

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Montedio Yamagata win at 54%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Montedio Yamagata was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–23
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Montedio Yamagata v Consadole Sapporo
  4. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Montedio Yamagata win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
  5. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Consadole Sapporo
  6. 44′We said Montedio Yamagata at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–36–22
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Montedio Yamagata 0–0 Consadole Sapporo
  8. 46′HALF-TIME Montedio Yamagata 0–0 Consadole Sapporo
  9. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Montedio Yamagata · On: H. Nodake · Off: Yoshio Kaina
  10. 51′We said Montedio Yamagata at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–21
  11. 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 37–43–20
  12. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Montedio Yamagata win 40%)
  13. 61′We said Montedio Yamagata at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
  14. 61′We said Montedio Yamagata at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
  15. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Montedio Yamagata win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
  16. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Montedio Yamagata 0–1 Consadole Sapporo
  17. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Montedio Yamagata win: 54% at kick-off, 9% now
  18. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Consadole Sapporo win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 48%)
  19. 62′A goal for Consadole Sapporo on 62′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–25–67
  20. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Montedio Yamagata · On: J. Takahashi · Off: A. S. Disaro
  21. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Consadole Sapporo · On: H. Miyazawa · Off: S. Kido
  22. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Consadole Sapporo · On: H. Miyazawa · Off: S. Kido
  23. 72′We said Montedio Yamagata at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
  24. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Montedio Yamagata win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
  25. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Montedio Yamagata · On: S. Doi · Off: R. Kawana
  26. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Montedio Yamagata · On: K. Mori · Off: S. Horikane
  27. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Consadole Sapporo · On: T. Arano · Off: R. Aoki
  28. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Montedio Yamagata 0–2 Consadole Sapporo
  29. 84′Consadole Sapporo score on 84′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  30. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Montedio Yamagata · On: R. Kida · Off: K. Yanagimachi
  31. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Consadole Sapporo · On: S. Sarachat · Off: S. Toyama
  32. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Consadole Sapporo · On: Park Min-Gyu · Off: K. Konomi
  33. 94′Full time, 0–2. We called Montedio Yamagata at 54% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  34. FTFULL TIME Montedio Yamagata 0–2 Consadole Sapporo
  35. FTMontedio Yamagata 0–2 Consadole Sapporo · Montedio Yamagata win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Montedio Yamagata are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Montedio Yamagata 54%, draw 23%, Consadole Sapporo 23%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Montedio Yamagata v Consadole SapporoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Montedio Yamagata win54%
Draw23%
Consadole Sapporo win23%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueND Soft Stadium Yamagata

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Montedio Yamagata

Consadole Sapporo

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League

Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
14Montedio Yamagata11+213
17Consadole Sapporo11−611

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · montedio yamagata winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
54% The market40%
Us54%
Market40%

We make Montedio Yamagata a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Montedio Yamagata v Consadole Sapporo1.81 – 1.11
Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 13 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 13 v 1114 v 17
The market · Montedio Yamagata win40% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55%60% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 04:38
Our probability · Montedio Yamagata win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Montedio Yamagata win54%40%+14
Draw23%27%−4
Consadole Sapporo win23%32%−9
Over 2.5 goals56%51%+5
Both teams to score56%56%0
Over 1.5 goals79%74%+5
Over 3.5 goals34%30%+4
Montedio Yamagata or draw77%68%+9
Montedio Yamagata clean sheet33%––
Consadole Sapporo clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%
0123450 5.6 6.0 3.4 1 9.8 10.8 5.9 2.2 2 8.8 9.6 5.3 3 5.3 5.8 3.2 4 2.5 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Montedio Yamagata down, Consadole Sapporo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting4.33
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsCON 1–2 MON · MON 0–1 CON · CON 6–3 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 13 Sept

MONTEDIO YAMAGATA

LLWLLD0–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

CONSADOLE SAPPORO

DDLWLW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vegalta Sendai11+1024
2Omiya Ardija11+1020
3Albirex Niigata11−420
4Kataller Toyama11+919
5Yokohama FC11+618
6Shonan Bellmare11+218
7Oita Trinita11+717
8Iwaki11+115
9Fujieda MYFC11+214
10Tegevajaro Miyazaki11014
11Jubilo Iwata11−114
12Sagan Tosu11−214
13Tokushima Vortis11−214
14Montedio Yamagata11+213
15Blaublitz Akita11013
16Tochigi City11−111
17Consadole Sapporo11−611
18Imabari11−811
19Vanraure Hachinohe11−1111
20Ventforet Kofu11−1410

The competition's standings before kick-off.