Kataller Toyama v Tegevajaro Miyazaki prediction · J2 League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 08:33

Kataller Toyama 1–1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki KATALLER TOYAMA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Kataller Toyama win~~41%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.823

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.803

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kataller Toyama win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kataller Toyama 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
1′KICK-OFF Kataller Toyama v Tegevajaro Miyazaki
3′Little has changed for our model: Kataller Toyama 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Kataller Toyama 0–1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
28′⚽ GOAL · 29' Kataller Toyama 0–0 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Kataller Toyama 1–0 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
37′⚽ GOAL · 38' Kataller Toyama 1–0 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
45′SECOND HALF Kataller Toyama 1–0 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
47′HALF-TIME Kataller Toyama 1–0 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tegevajaro Miyazaki · On: T. Abe · Off: H. Manabe
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Kataller Toyama · On: Kang Min-Woo · Off: S. Nishiya
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Kataller Toyama · On: T. Kim · Off: Y. Kunitake
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Tegevajaro Miyazaki
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Kataller Toyama 1–1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki · T. Yoshihira
62′⚽ GOAL · 63' Kataller Toyama 1–1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Tegevajaro Miyazaki · On: R. Sato · Off: M. Ano
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Tegevajaro Miyazaki · On: E. Watanabe · Off: Y. Iesaka
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Kataller Toyama · On: K. Tsuboi · Off: M. Furukawa
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kataller Toyama · On: D. Matsuoka · Off: G. Takenaka
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kataller Toyama · On: Y. Nakashima · Off: Y. Takahashi
79′⚽ GOAL · 38' Kataller Toyama 1–1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki · T. Yoshihira (assist Y. Takahashi)
79′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tegevajaro Miyazaki · On: T. Abe · Off: H. Manabe
79′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Kataller Toyama · On: T. Kim · Off: Y. Kunitake
79′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Kataller Toyama · On: Kang Min-Woo · Off: S. Nishiya
79′🟨 YELLOW · 58' M. Ano · Tegevajaro Miyazaki
79′⚽ GOAL · 63' Kataller Toyama 1–1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki · K. Okumura
79′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Tegevajaro Miyazaki · On: R. Sato · Off: M. Ano
79′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Tegevajaro Miyazaki · On: E. Watanabe · Off: Y. Iesaka
79′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Kataller Toyama · On: K. Tsuboi · Off: M. Furukawa
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kataller Toyama · On: D. Matsuoka · Off: G. Takenaka
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kataller Toyama · On: Y. Nakashima · Off: Y. Takahashi
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Tegevajaro Miyazaki · On: Y. Tanaka · Off: K. Murakoshi
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Tegevajaro Miyazaki
FTFULL TIME Kataller Toyama 1–1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
FTKataller Toyama 1–1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki · Kataller Toyama win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Kataller Toyama win41%

Draw26%

Tegevajaro Miyazaki win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 06:00

VenueToyama Stadium

Line-ups

Kataller Toyama

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kataller Toyama

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Kataller Toyama	9	+9	17
13	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	9	0	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kataller Toyama

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Hirao

4 S. Fukazawa

56 S. Okamoto

23 S. Nishiya

28 S. Fuseya

34 G. Takenaka

14 S. Tanimoto

33 Y. Takahashi

9 T. Yoshihira

55 Y. Kunitake

39 M. Furukawa

Coach · Ryo Adachi

Substitutes

99 · G. Harada

27 · Kang Min-Woo

8 · D. Matsuoka

32 · S. Mizoguchi

6 · S. Sera

15 · K. Tsuboi

13 · K. Ogawa

30 · Y. Nakashima

11 · T. Kim

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Mogi

24 Y. Matsumoto

45 S. Tanaka

28 H. Manabe

26 S. Miyawaki

14 Y. Iesaka

8 R. Yamauchi

7 M. Ano

47 K. Okumura

99 K. Murakoshi

9 K. Hashimoto

Coach · Yuji Okuma

Substitutes

31 · R. Kimura

5 · E. Watanabe

15 · T. Abe

29 · Y. Tanaka

6 · K. Okuma

13 · S. Tsutsumi

10 · R. Inoue

42 · K. Matsumoto

18 · R. Sato

Our number · kataller toyama winPublished 11 Oct 06:01

41% The market43%

Us41%

~~Market~~43%

We make Kataller Toyama a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kataller toyama win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kataller Toyama win	41%	43%	−2
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Tegevajaro Miyazaki win	33%	29%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	47%	55%	−7
Both teams to score	52%	59%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	72%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	26%	35%	−9
Kataller Toyama or draw	67%	71%	−3
Kataller Toyama clean sheet	31%	–	–
Tegevajaro Miyazaki clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.8 9.2 5.4 2.2 1 10.6 12.3 7.3 3.0 2 7.3 8.5 5.0 2.0 3 3.4 4.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kataller Toyama down, Tegevajaro Miyazaki across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,254 J2 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Kataller Toyama at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Tegevajaro Miyazaki away: 1.50 scored, 1.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Kataller Toyama, 1.19 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in J2 League

KATALLER TOYAMA

LWDWDW2–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 2–1

TEGEVAJARO MIYAZAKI

LLWWWD2–4 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omiya Ardija	10	+11	20
2	Vegalta Sendai	9	+9	20
3	Albirex Niigata	9	0	19
4	Kataller Toyama	9	+9	17
5	Yokohama FC	10	+6	17
6	Shonan Bellmare	9	+2	16
7	Oita Trinita	10	+3	14
8	Fujieda MYFC	10	+2	13
9	Blaublitz Akita	9	+2	13
10	Jubilo Iwata	10	−1	13
11	Tokushima Vortis	10	−2	13
12	Montedio Yamagata	9	+3	12
13	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	9	0	12
14	Sagan Tosu	10	−3	11
15	Tochigi City	10	−1	10
16	Imabari	10	−8	10
17	Ventforet Kofu	10	−9	10
18	Vanraure Hachinohe	10	−11	10
19	Iwaki	9	−5	9
20	Consadole Sapporo	10	−7	8