

Kataller Toyama v Shonan Bellmare
Kataller Toyama
Shonan BellmareJ2 League · SAT 17 OCT · Toyama Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Kataller Toyama win at 38%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Kataller Toyama 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
- 1′KICK-OFF Kataller Toyama v Shonan Bellmare
- 7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Kataller Toyama
- 30′We said Kataller Toyama at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 70–21–9
- 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Kataller Toyama 1–0 Shonan Bellmare
- 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Kataller Toyama win: 38% at kick-off, 70% now
- 31′A goal for Kataller Toyama on 31′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–21–9
- 45′SECOND HALF Kataller Toyama 1–0 Shonan Bellmare
- 48′HALF-TIME Kataller Toyama 1–0 Shonan Bellmare
- 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Shonan Bellmare · On: H. Okuno · Off: T. Nishino
- 51′We said Kataller Toyama at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
- 54′SUBSTITUTION · 50' Shonan Bellmare · On: K. Onose · Off: Arthur Feitoza
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Kataller Toyama win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
- 64′We said Kataller Toyama at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Shonan Bellmare · On: S. Ishibashi · Off: S. Kozuki
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kataller Toyama · On: Y. Kunitake · Off: T. Kim
- 73′We said Kataller Toyama at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 17–68–15
- 73′Shonan Bellmare score on 73′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 17–68–15
- 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Kataller Toyama 1–1 Shonan Bellmare
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Kataller Toyama win: 38% at kick-off, 17% now
- 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Kataller Toyama win 17%)
- 76′72′: H. Okuno on the scoresheet for Shonan Bellmare, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 15–72–13
- 77′We said Kataller Toyama at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–13
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Shonan Bellmare · On: Y. Suzuki · Off: W. Shimoguchi
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Shonan Bellmare · On: F. Gonzalez · Off: H. Yamada
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Kataller Toyama · On: K. Tsuboi · Off: M. Furukawa
- 82′We said Kataller Toyama at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–8
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Kataller Toyama win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
- 89′We said Kataller Toyama at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
- 94′1–1 at the end. Our 38% on Kataller Toyama misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
- FTFULL TIME Kataller Toyama 1–1 Shonan Bellmare
- FTKataller Toyama 1–1 Shonan Bellmare · Kataller Toyama win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassClose to call, with Kataller Toyama just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Kataller Toyama 38%, draw 28%, Shonan Bellmare 34%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Kataller Toyama win38%
Shonan Bellmare win34%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:00
RoundMatchday 11
VenueToyama Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Kataller ToyamaMIN
Shonan BellmareEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Kataller Toyama
Shonan Bellmare
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Kataller Toyama
Shonan Bellmare
Last match: 11 Oct · J2 League
Last match: 11 Oct · J2 League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Kataller Toyama
Formation not confirmed
1 T. Hirao
4 S. Fukazawa
56 S. Okamoto
27 Kang Min-Woo
33 Y. Takahashi
34 G. Takenaka
14 S. Tanimoto
28 S. Fuseya
9 T. Yoshihira
11 T. Kim
39 M. Furukawa
Coach · Ryo Adachi
Substitutes
99 · G. Harada
23 · S. Nishiya
8 · D. Matsuoka
32 · S. Mizoguchi
6 · S. Sera
55 · Y. Kunitake
15 · K. Tsuboi
13 · K. Ogawa
30 · Y. Nakashima
Shonan Bellmare
Formation not confirmed
31 K. Sanada
5 H. Matsumoto
4 K. Tachi
2 S. Matsumura
26 Y. Fukazawa
13 W. Shimoguchi
16 Arthur Feitoza
6 S. Takeda
38 S. Kozuki
34 H. Yamada
19 T. Nishino
Coach · Tetsu Nagasawa
Substitutes
21 · T. Nagai
37 · Y. Suzuki
3 · Y. Hakamata
30 · G. Yamaguchi
7 · K. Onose
25 · H. Okuno
17 · S. Tamura
20 · S. Ishibashi
9 · F. Gonzalez
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Kataller Toyama
Formation not confirmed
1 T. Hirao
4 S. Fukazawa
56 S. Okamoto
27 Kang Min-Woo
33 Y. Takahashi
34 G. Takenaka
14 S. Tanimoto
28 S. Fuseya
9 T. Yoshihira
11 T. Kim
39 M. Furukawa
Coach · Ryo Adachi
Substitutes
99 · G. Harada
23 · S. Nishiya
8 · D. Matsuoka
32 · S. Mizoguchi
6 · S. Sera
55 · Y. Kunitake
15 · K. Tsuboi
13 · K. Ogawa
30 · Y. Nakashima
Shonan Bellmare
Formation not confirmed
31 K. Sanada
5 H. Matsumoto
4 K. Tachi
2 S. Matsumura
26 Y. Fukazawa
13 W. Shimoguchi
16 Arthur Feitoza
6 S. Takeda
38 S. Kozuki
34 H. Yamada
19 T. Nishino
Coach · Tetsu Nagasawa
Substitutes
21 · T. Nagai
37 · Y. Suzuki
3 · Y. Hakamata
30 · G. Yamaguchi
7 · K. Onose
25 · H. Okuno
17 · S. Tamura
20 · S. Ishibashi
9 · F. Gonzalez
We make Kataller Toyama a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kataller Toyama win | 38% | – | – |
| Draw | 28% | – | – |
| Shonan Bellmare win | 34% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 46% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | – | – |
| Kataller Toyama or draw | 66% | – | – |
| Kataller Toyama clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
| Shonan Bellmare clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2022No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 5 Sept
KATALLER TOYAMA
SHONAN BELLMARE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 | Omiya Ardija | 11 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 | Albirex Niigata | 11 | −4 | 20 |
| 4 | Kataller Toyama | 10 | +9 | 18 |
| 5 | Yokohama FC | 11 | +6 | 18 |
| 6 | Oita Trinita | 11 | +7 | 17 |
| 7 | Shonan Bellmare | 10 | +2 | 17 |
| 8 | Fujieda MYFC | 11 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Sagan Tosu | 11 | −2 | 14 |
| 10 | Tokushima Vortis | 11 | −2 | 14 |
| 11 | Montedio Yamagata | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Blaublitz Akita | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 14 | Jubilo Iwata | 10 | −1 | 13 |
| 15 | Iwaki | 10 | −4 | 12 |
| 16 | Tochigi City | 11 | −1 | 11 |
| 17 | Consadole Sapporo | 11 | −6 | 11 |
| 18 | Imabari | 11 | −8 | 11 |
| 19 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 11 | −11 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 10 | −9 | 10 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Vegalta Sendai
Omiya Ardija
Albirex Niigata
Yokohama FC
Oita Trinita
Fujieda MYFC
Sagan Tosu
Tokushima Vortis
Montedio Yamagata
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Blaublitz Akita
Jubilo Iwata
Iwaki
Tochigi City
Consadole Sapporo
Imabari
Vanraure Hachinohe
Ventforet Kofu