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Kataller Toyama v Shonan Bellmare

Kataller Toyama
1–1Full time
Shonan Bellmare

J2 League · SAT 17 OCT · Toyama Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:44
Kataller Toyama 1–1 Shonan Bellmare KATALLER TOYAMA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Kataller Toyama win38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.779

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kataller Toyama win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Kataller Toyama 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Kataller Toyama v Shonan Bellmare
  4. 7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Kataller Toyama
  5. 30′We said Kataller Toyama at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
  6. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 70–21–9
  7. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Kataller Toyama 1–0 Shonan Bellmare
  8. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Kataller Toyama win: 38% at kick-off, 70% now
  9. 31′A goal for Kataller Toyama on 31′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–21–9
  10. 45′SECOND HALF Kataller Toyama 1–0 Shonan Bellmare
  11. 48′HALF-TIME Kataller Toyama 1–0 Shonan Bellmare
  12. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Shonan Bellmare · On: H. Okuno · Off: T. Nishino
  13. 51′We said Kataller Toyama at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
  14. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 50' Shonan Bellmare · On: K. Onose · Off: Arthur Feitoza
  15. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Kataller Toyama win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
  16. 64′We said Kataller Toyama at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  17. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Shonan Bellmare · On: S. Ishibashi · Off: S. Kozuki
  18. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kataller Toyama · On: Y. Kunitake · Off: T. Kim
  19. 73′We said Kataller Toyama at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 17–68–15
  20. 73′Shonan Bellmare score on 73′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 17–68–15
  21. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Kataller Toyama 1–1 Shonan Bellmare
  22. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Kataller Toyama win: 38% at kick-off, 17% now
  23. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Kataller Toyama win 17%)
  24. 76′72′: H. Okuno on the scoresheet for Shonan Bellmare, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 15–72–13
  25. 77′We said Kataller Toyama at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–13
  26. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Shonan Bellmare · On: Y. Suzuki · Off: W. Shimoguchi
  27. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Shonan Bellmare · On: F. Gonzalez · Off: H. Yamada
  28. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Kataller Toyama · On: K. Tsuboi · Off: M. Furukawa
  29. 82′We said Kataller Toyama at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–8
  30. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Kataller Toyama win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
  31. 89′We said Kataller Toyama at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  32. 94′1–1 at the end. Our 38% on Kataller Toyama misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  33. FTFULL TIME Kataller Toyama 1–1 Shonan Bellmare
  34. FTKataller Toyama 1–1 Shonan Bellmare · Kataller Toyama win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Kataller Toyama just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Kataller Toyama 38%, draw 28%, Shonan Bellmare 34%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Kataller Toyama v Shonan BellmareBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kataller Toyama win38%
Draw28%
Shonan Bellmare win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueToyama Stadium

Line-ups

Kataller Toyama

Shonan Bellmare

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kataller Toyama

Shonan Bellmare

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · J2 League

Last match: 11 Oct · J2 League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Kataller Toyama10+918
7Shonan Bellmare10+217

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kataller Toyama

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Hirao

4 S. Fukazawa

56 S. Okamoto

27 Kang Min-Woo

33 Y. Takahashi

34 G. Takenaka

14 S. Tanimoto

28 S. Fuseya

9 T. Yoshihira

11 T. Kim

39 M. Furukawa

Coach · Ryo Adachi

Substitutes

99 · G. Harada

23 · S. Nishiya

8 · D. Matsuoka

32 · S. Mizoguchi

6 · S. Sera

55 · Y. Kunitake

15 · K. Tsuboi

13 · K. Ogawa

30 · Y. Nakashima

Shonan Bellmare

Formation not confirmed

31 K. Sanada

5 H. Matsumoto

4 K. Tachi

2 S. Matsumura

26 Y. Fukazawa

13 W. Shimoguchi

16 Arthur Feitoza

6 S. Takeda

38 S. Kozuki

34 H. Yamada

19 T. Nishino

Coach · Tetsu Nagasawa

Substitutes

21 · T. Nagai

37 · Y. Suzuki

3 · Y. Hakamata

30 · G. Yamaguchi

7 · K. Onose

25 · H. Okuno

17 · S. Tamura

20 · S. Ishibashi

9 · F. Gonzalez

Our number · kataller toyama winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
38% The market–
Us38%

We make Kataller Toyama a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kataller Toyama v Shonan Bellmare1.20 – 1.10
Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 5 SeptW3 D3 L0 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 18 v 174 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kataller Toyama win38%––
Draw28%––
Shonan Bellmare win34%––
Over 2.5 goals40%––
Both teams to score46%––
Over 1.5 goals67%––
Over 3.5 goals20%––
Kataller Toyama or draw66%––
Kataller Toyama clean sheet34%––
Shonan Bellmare clean sheet30%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%
0123450 10.1 11.1 6.1 2.3 1 12.1 12.9 7.2 2.7 2 7.2 7.8 4.3 3 2.9 3.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kataller Toyama down, Shonan Bellmare across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 5 Sept

KATALLER TOYAMA

WDWDWD1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–1

SHONAN BELLMARE

LWDWDD1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vegalta Sendai11+1024
2Omiya Ardija11+1020
3Albirex Niigata11−420
4Kataller Toyama10+918
5Yokohama FC11+618
6Oita Trinita11+717
7Shonan Bellmare10+217
8Fujieda MYFC11+214
9Sagan Tosu11−214
10Tokushima Vortis11−214
11Montedio Yamagata11+213
12Tegevajaro Miyazaki10013
13Blaublitz Akita11013
14Jubilo Iwata10−113
15Iwaki10−412
16Tochigi City11−111
17Consadole Sapporo11−611
18Imabari11−811
19Vanraure Hachinohe11−1111
20Ventforet Kofu10−910

The competition's standings before kick-off.