Kataller Toyama v Consadole Sapporo prediction · J2 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kataller ToyamaDrawConsadole Sapporo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kataller Toyama 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kataller Toyama are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kataller Toyama 48%, draw 25%, Consadole Sapporo 27%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Kataller Toyama v Consadole SapporoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Kataller Toyama win48%

Draw25%

Consadole Sapporo win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueToyama Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kataller Toyama

Consadole Sapporo

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J2 League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Kataller Toyama	12	+12	22
14	Consadole Sapporo	12	−4	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kataller toyama winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market55%

Us48%

~~Market~~55%

We make Kataller Toyama a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kataller Toyama v Consadole Sapporo~~1.60 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 22 v 14~~3 v 14

~~The market · Kataller Toyama win~~55% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kataller Toyama win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kataller Toyama win	48%	55%	−7
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Consadole Sapporo win	27%	21%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	52%	62%	−10
Both teams to score	54%	61%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	76%	82%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	30%	40%	−10
Kataller Toyama or draw	73%	79%	−6
Kataller Toyama clean sheet	32%	–	–
Consadole Sapporo clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.6 7.4 4.3 1 10.2 11.6 6.6 2.6 2 8.2 9.2 5.3 2.0 3 4.4 5.0 2.8 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kataller Toyama down, Consadole Sapporo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,280 J2 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kataller Toyama at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Consadole Sapporo away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Kataller Toyama, 1.15 for Consadole Sapporo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KAT 0–2 CON · CON 2–1 KAT · KAT 1–2 CON · CON 1–1 KAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept

KATALLER TOYAMA

WDWDDW2–0 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

CONSADOLE SAPPORO

DLWLWW1–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	12	+12	27
2	Albirex Niigata	12	−3	23
3	Kataller Toyama	12	+12	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	+9	22
5	Omiya Ardija	13	+7	21
6	Shonan Bellmare	12	+2	19
7	Oita Trinita	12	+7	18
8	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	12	+1	17
9	Tokushima Vortis	13	−2	17
10	Iwaki	12	+1	16
11	Fujieda MYFC	13	+1	15
12	Jubilo Iwata	12	−1	15
13	Sagan Tosu	12	−3	14
14	Consadole Sapporo	12	−4	14
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	12	−10	14
16	Montedio Yamagata	12	0	13
17	Blaublitz Akita	12	−1	13
18	Tochigi City	12	−1	12
19	Imabari	12	−10	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	12	−17	10