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Jubilo Iwata v Consadole Sapporo

Jubilo Iwata

1–0Full time

Consadole Sapporo

J2 League · SAT 10 OCT · Yamaha Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:08

Jubilo Iwata 1–0 Consadole Sapporo JUBILO IWATA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jubilo Iwata win~~55%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.305

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.339

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jubilo Iwata win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF Jubilo Iwata v Consadole Sapporo
2′Little has changed for our model: Jubilo Iwata 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
37′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Jubilo Iwata
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Jubilo Iwata 1–0 Consadole Sapporo
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Consadole Sapporo
41′⚽ GOAL · 42' Jubilo Iwata 1–0 Consadole Sapporo
43′Iago Teles scores for Jubilo Iwata on 42′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–6
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Jubilo Iwata win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
45′SECOND HALF Jubilo Iwata 1–0 Consadole Sapporo
47′We said Jubilo Iwata at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–6
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Consadole Sapporo · On: Vini Peixoto · Off: T. Hasegawa
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Jubilo Iwata
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Jubilo Iwata · On: M. Ohara · Off: T. Inui
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Jubilo Iwata · On: R. Ota · Off: J. Victor
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Consadole Sapporo · On: H. Miyazawa · Off: S. Kido
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Consadole Sapporo · On: Park Min-Gyu · Off: Y. Horigome
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Jubilo Iwata · On: L. Nozawa · Off: Iago Teles
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Jubilo Iwata · On: I. Kawasaki · Off: D. Sato
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Consadole Sapporo · On: S. Sarachat · Off: S. Omori
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Consadole Sapporo · On: S. Toyama · Off: H. Kawahara
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Jubilo Iwata · On: K. Fujiwara · Off: S. Inoue
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Jubilo Iwata 1–1 Consadole Sapporo · Iago Teles
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Jubilo Iwata 1–0 Consadole Sapporo
FTFULL TIME Jubilo Iwata 1–0 Consadole Sapporo
FTJubilo Iwata 1–0 Consadole Sapporo · Jubilo Iwata win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Jubilo Iwata win55%

Draw21%

Consadole Sapporo win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 10:00

Venue · Yamaha Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Jubilo Iwata

Formation not confirmed

16 A. Niekawa

29 K. Kuwabara

2 Danilo Cardoso

30 K. Yamazaki

36 R. Yoshimura

15 Yuri Lara

18 S. Inoue

47 D. Sato

23 T. Inui

31 Iago Teles

99 J. Victor

Coach · Tadahiro Akiba

Substitutes

1 · E. Kawashima

26 · S. Nishikubo

8 · H. Tameda

7 · R. Uehara

37 · I. Kawasaki

77 · K. Fujiwara

14 · M. Ohara

19 · L. Nozawa

32 · R. Ota

Consadole Sapporo

Formation not confirmed

24 T. Tagawa

39 H. Kawahara

55 R. Umetsu

47 S. Nishino

17 M. Uchida

18 S. Kido

50 N. Urakami

31 Y. Horigome

11 R. Aoki

16 T. Hasegawa

23 S. Omori

Coach · Kenta Kawai

Substitutes

1 · T. Sugeno

34 · K. Konomi

3 · Park Min-Gyu

29 · Kim Geon-Ung

10 · H. Miyazawa

7 · S. Sarachat

70 · Vini Peixoto

38 · S. Toyama

22 · K. Safo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Jubilo Iwata

Formation not confirmed

16 A. Niekawa

29 K. Kuwabara

2 Danilo Cardoso

30 K. Yamazaki

36 R. Yoshimura

15 Yuri Lara

18 S. Inoue

47 D. Sato

23 T. Inui

31 Iago Teles

99 J. Victor

Coach · Tadahiro Akiba

Substitutes

1 · E. Kawashima

26 · S. Nishikubo

8 · H. Tameda

7 · R. Uehara

37 · I. Kawasaki

77 · K. Fujiwara

14 · M. Ohara

19 · L. Nozawa

32 · R. Ota

Consadole Sapporo

Formation not confirmed

24 T. Tagawa

39 H. Kawahara

55 R. Umetsu

47 S. Nishino

17 M. Uchida

18 S. Kido

50 N. Urakami

31 Y. Horigome

11 R. Aoki

16 T. Hasegawa

23 S. Omori

Coach · Kenta Kawai

Substitutes

1 · T. Sugeno

34 · K. Konomi

3 · Park Min-Gyu

29 · Kim Geon-Ung

10 · H. Miyazawa

7 · S. Sarachat

70 · Vini Peixoto

38 · S. Toyama

22 · K. Safo

Our number · jubilo iwata winPublished 10 Oct 10:08

55% The market52%

Us55%

~~Market~~52%

We make Jubilo Iwata a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jubilo Iwata win	55%	52%	+2
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Consadole Sapporo win	24%	23%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	63%	54%	+9
Both teams to score	61%	55%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	83%	76%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	41%	33%	+9
Jubilo Iwata or draw	76%	77%	−1
Jubilo Iwata clean sheet	29%	–	–
Consadole Sapporo clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 4.0 4.9 3.0 1 7.8 9.5 6.0 2.5 2 7.7 9.5 5.9 2.5 3 5.2 6.3 4.0 4 2.7 3.2 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jubilo Iwata down, Consadole Sapporo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,248 J2 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 6.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jubilo Iwata at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Consadole Sapporo away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Jubilo Iwata, 1.25 for Consadole Sapporo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~JUB 5–1 CON · CON 2–4 JUB

Form · last six in J2 League

JUBILO IWATA

WLWLLL3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

CONSADOLE SAPPORO

LLDDLW1–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	9	+9	20
2	Albirex Niigata	9	0	19
3	Kataller Toyama	9	+9	17
4	Omiya Ardija	9	+9	17
5	Yokohama FC	9	+7	17
6	Shonan Bellmare	9	+2	16
7	Fujieda MYFC	9	+3	13
8	Blaublitz Akita	9	+2	13
9	Tokushima Vortis	9	−1	13
10	Montedio Yamagata	9	+3	12
11	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	9	0	12
12	Oita Trinita	9	+2	11
13	Tochigi City	9	0	10
14	Jubilo Iwata	9	−2	10
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	9	−9	10
16	Iwaki	9	−5	9
17	Sagan Tosu	9	−4	8
18	Consadole Sapporo	9	−6	8
19	Imabari	9	−9	7
20	Ventforet Kofu	9	−10	7