Iwaki v Ventforet Kofu prediction · J2 League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 07:30

Iwaki 5–0 Ventforet Kofu IWAKI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Iwaki win~~47%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.417

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.326

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Iwaki win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Iwaki 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
1′KICK-OFF Iwaki v Ventforet Kofu
5′We said Iwaki at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–11
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Iwaki 1–0 Ventforet Kofu
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Iwaki win: 47% at kick-off, 73% now
7′Iwaki find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–10
14′We said Iwaki at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Iwaki 2–0 Ventforet Kofu
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Iwaki win: 47% at kick-off, 90% now
17′S. Fukaminato scores for Iwaki on 15′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–3
19′We said Iwaki at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–1
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Iwaki 3–0 Ventforet Kofu
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Iwaki win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
20′Iwaki score on 19′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 98–1–0
45′SECOND HALF Iwaki 3–0 Ventforet Kofu
47′HALF-TIME Iwaki 3–0 Ventforet Kofu
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ventforet Kofu · On: H. Mizuno · Off: Y. Murakami
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ventforet Kofu · On: Y. Koide · Off: S. Fukumoto
59′We said Iwaki at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Iwaki · On: N. Kumata · Off: T. Kato
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Iwaki 4–0 Ventforet Kofu
71′Iwaki find the net on 71′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ventforet Kofu · On: K. Oshima · Off: H. Sueki
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ventforet Kofu · On: A. Kurokawa · Off: Y. Naito
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Iwaki · On: A. Yamanaka · Off: D. Yamaguchi
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Iwaki · On: R. Nagaki · Off: K. Shota
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Ventforet Kofu · On: K. Sato · Off: Y. Hiratsuka
89′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Iwaki 5–0 Ventforet Kofu
90′A goal for Iwaki on 90′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Iwaki · On: M. Araki · Off: R. Nishitani
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Iwaki · On: R. Hisanaga · Off: Y. Michiwaki
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Iwaki
93′A. Yamanaka scores for Iwaki on 89′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Iwaki 5–0 Ventforet Kofu
FTIwaki 5–0 Ventforet Kofu · Iwaki win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Iwaki are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Iwaki 47%, draw 25%, Ventforet Kofu 28%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Iwaki v Ventforet KofuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Iwaki win47%

Draw25%

Ventforet Kofu win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueIwaki Greenfield

Line-ups

Iwaki

Ventforet Kofu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Iwaki

Ventforet Kofu

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · J2 League

Last match: 10 Oct · J2 League

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Iwaki	10	−4	12
20	Ventforet Kofu	10	−9	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Iwaki

Formation not confirmed

23 M. Sasaki

5 T. Kuwata

15 H. Nakano

35 S. Fukaminato

13 K. Fujii

30 K. Shota

22 Y. Takahashi

14 D. Yamaguchi

10 R. Nishitani

9 Y. Michiwaki

11 T. Kato

Coach · Kazuaki Tasaka

Substitutes

21 · R. Matsumoto

2 · I. Konno

27 · A. Yamanaka

40 · R. Nagaki

28 · R. Hisanaga

16 · M. Araki

19 · S. Jeon

38 · N. Kumata

Ventforet Kofu

Formation not confirmed

97 J. Higashi

3 R. Nozawa

17 S. Fukumoto

20 H. Endo

13 Y. Murakami

27 S. Takei

16 H. Sueki

6 I. Kobayashi

25 Y. Hiratsuka

23 M. Staccioli

10 Y. Naito

Coach · Hiroki Shibuya

Substitutes

33 · K. Yamauchi

41 · T. Wada

22 · Y. Koide

95 · Mendes

26 · K. Sato

11 · K. Kumakura

29 · K. Oshima

96 · A. Kurokawa

19 · H. Mizuno

Our number · iwaki winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market53%

Us47%

~~Market~~53%

We make Iwaki a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Iwaki v Ventforet Kofu~~1.57 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~15 v 20

~~The market · Iwaki win~~53% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Iwaki win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iwaki win	47%	53%	−6
Draw	25%	25%	0
Ventforet Kofu win	28%	21%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	51%	51%	0
Both teams to score	53%	52%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	30%	−1
Iwaki or draw	72%	79%	−7
Iwaki clean sheet	32%	–	–
Ventforet Kofu clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.9 7.6 4.3 1 10.5 11.8 6.7 2.6 2 8.2 9.2 5.2 3 4.3 4.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iwaki down, Ventforet Kofu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,267 J2 League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Iwaki at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ventforet Kofu away: 0.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Iwaki, 1.14 for Ventforet Kofu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~IWA 0–1 VEN · VEN 0–1 IWA · IWA 2–3 VEN · VEN 1–0 IWA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 5 Sept

IWAKI

LWWLLW0–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

VENTFORET KOFU

WLLLLW2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	11	+10	24
2	Omiya Ardija	11	+10	20
3	Albirex Niigata	11	−4	20
4	Kataller Toyama	11	+9	19
5	Yokohama FC	11	+6	18
6	Shonan Bellmare	11	+2	18
7	Oita Trinita	11	+7	17
8	Fujieda MYFC	11	+2	14
9	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	11	0	14
10	Jubilo Iwata	11	−1	14
11	Sagan Tosu	11	−2	14
12	Tokushima Vortis	11	−2	14
13	Montedio Yamagata	11	+2	13
14	Blaublitz Akita	11	0	13
15	Iwaki	10	−4	12
16	Tochigi City	11	−1	11
17	Consadole Sapporo	11	−6	11
18	Imabari	11	−8	11
19	Vanraure Hachinohe	11	−11	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	10	−9	10