Iwaki v Jubilo Iwata prediction · J2 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

IwakiDrawJubilo Iwata

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 06:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Iwaki 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Iwaki are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Iwaki 40%, draw 25%, Jubilo Iwata 35%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Iwaki v Jubilo IwataBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Iwaki win40%

Draw25%

Jubilo Iwata win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueIwaki Greenfield

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Iwaki

Jubilo Iwata

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J2 League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Iwaki	12	+1	16
12	Jubilo Iwata	12	−1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · iwaki winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make Iwaki a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Iwaki v Jubilo Iwata~~1.47 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 15~~10 v 12

~~The market · Iwaki win~~37% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Iwaki win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iwaki win	40%	37%	+3
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Jubilo Iwata win	35%	35%	0
Over 2.5 goals	54%	50%	+4
Both teams to score	57%	55%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	74%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	29%	+3
Iwaki or draw	65%	65%	0
Iwaki clean sheet	26%	–	–
Jubilo Iwata clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.0 8.0 5.5 2.5 1 8.6 11.6 7.9 3.7 2 6.3 8.5 5.8 2.7 3 3.1 4.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iwaki down, Jubilo Iwata across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,280 J2 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Iwaki at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Jubilo Iwata away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Iwaki, 1.38 for Jubilo Iwata. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~JUB 1–1 IWA · IWA 1–0 JUB · IWA 3–1 JUB · JUB 2–0 IWA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept

IWAKI

WLLWWD3–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 1–1

JUBILO IWATA

LLLWDD1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	12	+12	27
2	Albirex Niigata	12	−3	23
3	Kataller Toyama	12	+12	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	+9	22
5	Omiya Ardija	13	+7	21
6	Shonan Bellmare	12	+2	19
7	Oita Trinita	12	+7	18
8	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	12	+1	17
9	Tokushima Vortis	13	−2	17
10	Iwaki	12	+1	16
11	Fujieda MYFC	13	+1	15
12	Jubilo Iwata	12	−1	15
13	Sagan Tosu	12	−3	14
14	Consadole Sapporo	12	−4	14
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	12	−10	14
16	Montedio Yamagata	12	0	13
17	Blaublitz Akita	12	−1	13
18	Tochigi City	12	−1	12
19	Imabari	12	−10	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	12	−17	10