Iwaki v Blaublitz Akita prediction · J2 League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 09:34

Iwaki 1–0 Blaublitz Akita IWAKI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Iwaki win~~44%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.465

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.531

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Iwaki win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Iwaki was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
1′KICK-OFF Iwaki v Blaublitz Akita
21′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Blaublitz Akita
36′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Y. Nakano · Blaublitz Akita
45′SECOND HALF Iwaki 0–0 Blaublitz Akita
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Blaublitz Akita · On: T. Hasegawa · Off: Y. Nakano
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Blaublitz Akita · On: K. Sagawa · Off: K. Handa
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Blaublitz Akita · On: M. Yoshioka · Off: R. Oishi
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Iwaki 1–0 Blaublitz Akita
60′⚽ GOAL · 61' Iwaki 1–0 Blaublitz Akita
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Iwaki · On: I. Konno · Off: R. Nishitani
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Blaublitz Akita · On: T. Mizutani · Off: T. Fujiyama
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Iwaki · On: T. Kato · Off: D. Yamaguchi
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Blaublitz Akita · On: S. Aihara · Off: S. Suzuki
FTFULL TIME Iwaki 1–0 Blaublitz Akita
FTIwaki 1–0 Blaublitz Akita · Iwaki win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Iwaki win44%

Draw26%

Blaublitz Akita win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 07:00

VenueIwaki Greenfield

Line-ups

Iwaki

Blaublitz Akita

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Iwaki

Blaublitz Akita

7Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Blaublitz Akita	9	+2	13
19	Iwaki	9	−5	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Iwaki

Formation not confirmed

23 M. Sasaki

5 T. Kuwata

15 H. Nakano

35 S. Fukaminato

13 K. Fujii

30 K. Shota

22 Y. Takahashi

14 D. Yamaguchi

10 R. Nishitani

38 N. Kumata

9 Y. Michiwaki

Coach · Kazuaki Tasaka

Substitutes

21 · R. Matsumoto

2 · I. Konno

27 · A. Yamanaka

7 · S. Nakajima

28 · R. Hisanaga

16 · M. Araki

19 · S. Jeon

11 · T. Kato

Blaublitz Akita

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Yamada

22 H. Takahashi

3 R. Iizumi

17 T. Nonomura

5 K. Nagai

14 R. Oishi

25 T. Fujiyama

66 K. Doi

77 Y. Nakano

34 S. Suzuki

18 K. Handa

Coach · Ken Yoshida

Substitutes

38 · C. Hill

2 · R. Okazaki

32 · T. Hasegawa

27 · T. Iwai

7 · T. Mizutani

16 · M. Yoshioka

8 · K. Umeda

11 · K. Sagawa

24 · S. Aihara

Our number · iwaki winPublished 11 Oct 07:02

44% The market40%

Us44%

~~Market~~40%

We make Iwaki a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · iwaki win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iwaki win	44%	40%	+4
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Blaublitz Akita win	29%	31%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	46%	45%	0
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	70%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	26%	−1
Iwaki or draw	71%	69%	+1
Iwaki clean sheet	34%	–	–
Blaublitz Akita clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.2 9.0 4.9 1 11.6 12.4 6.8 2.5 2 8.1 8.8 4.8 3 3.9 4.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iwaki down, Blaublitz Akita across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,254 J2 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Iwaki at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Blaublitz Akita away: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Iwaki, 1.10 for Blaublitz Akita. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BLA 2–0 IWA · IWA 1–1 BLA · IWA 2–0 BLA · BLA 1–0 IWA

Form · last six in J2 League

IWAKI

LLWWLL2–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

BLAUBLITZ AKITA

LDWDDW0–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omiya Ardija	10	+11	20
2	Vegalta Sendai	9	+9	20
3	Albirex Niigata	9	0	19
4	Kataller Toyama	9	+9	17
5	Yokohama FC	10	+6	17
6	Shonan Bellmare	9	+2	16
7	Oita Trinita	10	+3	14
8	Fujieda MYFC	10	+2	13
9	Blaublitz Akita	9	+2	13
10	Jubilo Iwata	10	−1	13
11	Tokushima Vortis	10	−2	13
12	Montedio Yamagata	9	+3	12
13	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	9	0	12
14	Sagan Tosu	10	−3	11
15	Tochigi City	10	−1	10
16	Imabari	10	−8	10
17	Ventforet Kofu	10	−9	10
18	Vanraure Hachinohe	10	−11	10
19	Iwaki	9	−5	9
20	Consadole Sapporo	10	−7	8