Fujieda MYFC v Tokushima Vortis prediction · J2 League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 08:31

Fujieda MYFC 0–1 Tokushima Vortis TOKUSHIMA VORTIS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Tokushima Vortis win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.586

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tokushima Vortis win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tokushima Vortis was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 32–30–37
1′KICK-OFF Fujieda MYFC v Tokushima Vortis
28′We published Tokushima Vortis at 38%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 8–21–71
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Fujieda MYFC 0–1 Tokushima Vortis
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Tokushima Vortis win: 38% at kick-off, 71% now
29′Tokushima Vortis score on 28′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–21–71
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 8–21–71
45′We published Tokushima Vortis at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
45′SECOND HALF Fujieda MYFC 0–1 Tokushima Vortis
47′HALF-TIME Fujieda MYFC 0–1 Tokushima Vortis
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fujieda MYFC · On: T. Okamoto · Off: Y. Nakamura
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Tokushima Vortis
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Tokushima Vortis win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
61′We published Tokushima Vortis at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Tokushima Vortis · On: H. Tanaka · Off: Kaique
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Fujieda MYFC · On: T. Kawamoto · Off: W. Kanemoto
71′We published Tokushima Vortis at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Tokushima Vortis win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Tokushima Vortis · On: Lucas Barcelos · Off: S. Kodama
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Tokushima Vortis · On: M. Moyo · Off: Y. Takagi
79′We published Tokushima Vortis at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fujieda MYFC · On: S. Matsuki · Off: R. Kawamoto
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fujieda MYFC · On: U. Uehata · Off: Y. Nagao
86′We published Tokushima Vortis at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Tokushima Vortis · On: D. Watari · Off: Thonny Anderson
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Tokushima Vortis · On: T. Yamaguchi · Off: J. Miyazaki
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Fujieda MYFC · On: K. Matsuda · Off: R. Kajikawa
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Tokushima Vortis win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
96′Full time, 0–1. We called Tokushima Vortis at 38% — that one lands. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Fujieda MYFC 0–1 Tokushima Vortis
FTFujieda MYFC 0–1 Tokushima Vortis · Tokushima Vortis win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tokushima Vortis are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fujieda MYFC 32%, draw 30%, Tokushima Vortis 38%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Fujieda MYFC v Tokushima VortisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Fujieda MYFC win32%

Draw30%

Tokushima Vortis win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueFujieda soccer stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fujieda MYFC

Tokushima Vortis

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · J2 League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Fujieda MYFC	12	+2	15
13	Tokushima Vortis	12	−3	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tokushima vortis winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Tokushima Vortis a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fujieda MYFC v Tokushima Vortis~~0.99 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept~~W0 D5 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 14~~10 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tokushima Vortis win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fujieda MYFC win	32%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Tokushima Vortis win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Fujieda MYFC or draw	62%	–	–
Fujieda MYFC clean sheet	34%	–	–
Tokushima Vortis clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%

0123450 12.8 13.6 7.4 2.7 1 12.3 13.4 7.2 2.7 2 6.1 6.6 3.6 3 2.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fujieda MYFC down, Tokushima Vortis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,278 J2 League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fujieda MYFC at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Tokushima Vortis away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Fujieda MYFC, 1.09 for Tokushima Vortis. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~0 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TOK 0–2 FUJ · FUJ 0–2 TOK · TOK 3–0 FUJ · FUJ 0–1 TOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept

FUJIEDA MYFC

DDDLDD1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–2

TOKUSHIMA VORTIS

WWLLDL1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	12	+12	27
2	Albirex Niigata	12	−3	23
3	Kataller Toyama	12	+12	22
4	Yokohama FC	12	+9	21
5	Omiya Ardija	12	+7	20
6	Shonan Bellmare	12	+2	19
7	Oita Trinita	12	+7	18
8	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	12	+1	17
9	Iwaki	12	+1	16
10	Fujieda MYFC	12	+2	15
11	Jubilo Iwata	12	−1	15
12	Sagan Tosu	12	−3	14
13	Tokushima Vortis	12	−3	14
14	Consadole Sapporo	12	−4	14
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	12	−10	14
16	Montedio Yamagata	12	0	13
17	Blaublitz Akita	12	−1	13
18	Tochigi City	12	−1	12
19	Imabari	12	−10	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	12	−17	10