Consadole Sapporo v Shonan Bellmare prediction · J2 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Consadole SapporoDrawShonan Bellmare

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 04:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Shonan Bellmare 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Shonan Bellmare just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Consadole Sapporo 35%, draw 26%, Shonan Bellmare 39%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Consadole Sapporo v Shonan BellmareBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Consadole Sapporo win35%

Draw26%

Shonan Bellmare win39%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 04:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueSapporo Dome

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Consadole Sapporo

Shonan Bellmare

6Days since last match10

Last match: 25 Oct · J2 League

Last match: 21 Oct · J2 League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Shonan Bellmare	12	+2	19
11	Consadole Sapporo	13	−3	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shonan bellmare winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Shonan Bellmare a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Consadole Sapporo v Shonan Bellmare~~1.26 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D5 L0

~~Table places · points 17 v 19~~11 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Consadole Sapporo win	35%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Shonan Bellmare win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Consadole Sapporo or draw	61%	–	–
Consadole Sapporo clean sheet	27%	–	–
Shonan Bellmare clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.7 10.0 6.7 3.0 1 9.4 12.4 8.2 3.7 2 5.9 7.7 5.1 2.3 3 2.5 3.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Consadole Sapporo down, Shonan Bellmare across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,280 J2 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Consadole Sapporo at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Shonan Bellmare away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Consadole Sapporo, 1.34 for Shonan Bellmare. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SHO 1–1 CON · CON 3–3 SHO · CON 0–1 SHO · SHO 2–4 CON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept

CONSADOLE SAPPORO

LWLWWW2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

SHONAN BELLMARE

DWDDDD1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	13	+11	27
2	Albirex Niigata	13	−2	26
3	Kataller Toyama	13	+11	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	+9	22
5	Omiya Ardija	13	+7	21
6	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	13	+3	20
7	Oita Trinita	13	+7	19
8	Shonan Bellmare	12	+2	19
9	Sagan Tosu	13	−1	17
10	Tokushima Vortis	13	−2	17
11	Consadole Sapporo	13	−3	17
12	Iwaki	12	+1	16
13	Blaublitz Akita	13	0	16
14	Fujieda MYFC	13	+1	15
15	Jubilo Iwata	12	−1	15
16	Vanraure Hachinohe	13	−12	14
17	Montedio Yamagata	13	−2	13
18	Tochigi City	12	−1	12
19	Imabari	13	−11	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	13	−17	11