Consadole Sapporo v Blaublitz Akita prediction · J2 League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 08:31

Consadole Sapporo 1–0 Blaublitz Akita CONSADOLE SAPPORO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Consadole Sapporo win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.579

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Consadole Sapporo win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF Consadole Sapporo v Blaublitz Akita
2′Much as we predicted: Consadole Sapporo was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–36
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Consadole Sapporo
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Consadole Sapporo win 32%)
45′SECOND HALF Consadole Sapporo 0–0 Blaublitz Akita
46′HALF-TIME Consadole Sapporo 0–0 Blaublitz Akita
49′We published Consadole Sapporo at 38%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–21–7
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Consadole Sapporo 1–0 Blaublitz Akita
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Consadole Sapporo win: 38% at kick-off, 72% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Consadole Sapporo win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
51′Consadole Sapporo find the net on 50′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–21–7
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Blaublitz Akita · On: M. Yoshioka · Off: R. Oishi
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Blaublitz Akita · On: T. Hasegawa · Off: Y. Nakano
58′We published Consadole Sapporo at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Consadole Sapporo
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Consadole Sapporo win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Blaublitz Akita · On: S. Aihara · Off: K. Handa
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Blaublitz Akita · On: K. Umeda · Off: S. Suzuki
68′We published Consadole Sapporo at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Blaublitz Akita
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Consadole Sapporo · On: Kim Geon-Ung · Off: S. Kido
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Consadole Sapporo · On: H. Miyazawa · Off: K. Konomi
76′We published Consadole Sapporo at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Consadole Sapporo win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
82′We published Consadole Sapporo at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Blaublitz Akita · On: T. Iwai · Off: H. Takahashi
89′We published Consadole Sapporo at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–4–0
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Consadole Sapporo · On: Vini Peixoto · Off: S. Toyama
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Consadole Sapporo · On: Y. Okada · Off: R. Aoki
92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Consadole Sapporo · On: K. Safo · Off: S. Omori
93′Full time, 1–0. We called Consadole Sapporo at 38% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Consadole Sapporo win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Consadole Sapporo 1–0 Blaublitz Akita
FTConsadole Sapporo 1–0 Blaublitz Akita · Consadole Sapporo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Consadole Sapporo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Consadole Sapporo 38%, draw 26%, Blaublitz Akita 36%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Consadole Sapporo v Blaublitz AkitaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Consadole Sapporo win38%

Draw26%

Blaublitz Akita win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSapporo Dome

Line-ups

Consadole Sapporo

Blaublitz Akita

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Consadole Sapporo

Blaublitz Akita

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · J2 League

Last match: 11 Oct · J2 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Blaublitz Akita	10	+1	13
20	Consadole Sapporo	10	−7	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Consadole Sapporo

Formation not confirmed

24 T. Tagawa

39 H. Kawahara

55 R. Umetsu

47 S. Nishino

17 M. Uchida

50 N. Urakami

18 S. Kido

34 K. Konomi

38 S. Toyama

11 R. Aoki

23 S. Omori

Coach · Kenta Kawai

Substitutes

1 · T. Sugeno

28 · Y. Okada

29 · Kim Geon-Ung

10 · H. Miyazawa

16 · T. Hasegawa

7 · S. Sarachat

9 · Mario Sergio

70 · Vini Peixoto

22 · K. Safo

Blaublitz Akita

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Yamada

22 H. Takahashi

3 R. Iizumi

17 T. Nonomura

5 K. Nagai

14 R. Oishi

25 T. Fujiyama

66 K. Doi

77 Y. Nakano

34 S. Suzuki

18 K. Handa

Coach · Ken Yoshida

Substitutes

38 · C. Hill

2 · R. Okazaki

32 · T. Hasegawa

27 · T. Iwai

7 · T. Mizutani

16 · M. Yoshioka

8 · K. Umeda

11 · K. Sagawa

24 · S. Aihara

Our number · consadole sapporo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Consadole Sapporo a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Consadole Sapporo v Blaublitz Akita~~1.33 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~20 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Consadole Sapporo win	38%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Blaublitz Akita win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Consadole Sapporo or draw	64%	–	–
Consadole Sapporo clean sheet	28%	–	–
Blaublitz Akita clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.5 9.6 6.0 2.6 1 10.0 12.3 7.9 3.4 2 6.5 8.2 5.2 2.2 3 2.9 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Consadole Sapporo down, Blaublitz Akita across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,258 J2 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Consadole Sapporo at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Blaublitz Akita away: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Consadole Sapporo, 1.28 for Blaublitz Akita. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BLA 1–1 CON · CON 0–2 BLA · BLA 1–3 CON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 6 Sept

CONSADOLE SAPPORO

LDDLWL1–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1

BLAUBLITZ AKITA

DWDDWL0–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	10	+10	23
2	Omiya Ardija	10	+11	20
3	Albirex Niigata	10	0	20
4	Kataller Toyama	10	+9	18
5	Yokohama FC	10	+6	17
6	Shonan Bellmare	10	+2	17
7	Oita Trinita	10	+3	14
8	Fujieda MYFC	10	+2	13
9	Blaublitz Akita	10	+1	13
10	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	10	0	13
11	Jubilo Iwata	10	−1	13
12	Tokushima Vortis	10	−2	13
13	Montedio Yamagata	10	+2	12
14	Iwaki	10	−4	12
15	Sagan Tosu	10	−3	11
16	Tochigi City	10	−1	10
17	Imabari	10	−8	10
18	Ventforet Kofu	10	−9	10
19	Vanraure Hachinohe	10	−11	10
20	Consadole Sapporo	10	−7	8