Albirex Niigata v Vegalta Sendai prediction · J2 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Albirex NiigataDrawVegalta Sendai

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Albirex Niigata 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Albirex Niigata just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Albirex Niigata 37%, draw 26%, Vegalta Sendai 37%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Albirex Niigata v Vegalta SendaiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Albirex Niigata win37%

Draw26%

Vegalta Sendai win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueDenka Big Swan Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Albirex Niigata

Vegalta Sendai

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J2 League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · albirex niigata winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

37% The market23%

Us37%

~~Market~~23%

We make Albirex Niigata a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 23%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Albirex Niigata v Vegalta Sendai~~1.35 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 23 v 27~~2 v 1

~~The market · Albirex Niigata win~~23% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Albirex Niigata win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 23% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Albirex Niigata win	37%	23%	+14
Draw	26%	26%	0
Vegalta Sendai win	37%	51%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	50%	51%	−1
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	30%	−2
Albirex Niigata or draw	63%	49%	+14
Albirex Niigata clean sheet	27%	–	–
Vegalta Sendai clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.1 9.2 6.1 2.8 1 9.2 12.1 8.0 3.6 2 6.2 8.1 5.4 2.4 3 2.8 3.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Albirex Niigata down, Vegalta Sendai across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,280 J2 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Albirex Niigata at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Vegalta Sendai away: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Albirex Niigata, 1.34 for Vegalta Sendai. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALB 3–0 VEG · VEG 0–0 ALB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept

ALBIREX NIIGATA

WDWDLW2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 2–1

VEGALTA SENDAI

WWWWDW3–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	12	+12	27
2	Albirex Niigata	12	−3	23
3	Kataller Toyama	12	+12	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	+9	22
5	Omiya Ardija	13	+7	21
6	Shonan Bellmare	12	+2	19
7	Oita Trinita	12	+7	18
8	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	12	+1	17
9	Tokushima Vortis	13	−2	17
10	Iwaki	12	+1	16
11	Fujieda MYFC	13	+1	15
12	Jubilo Iwata	12	−1	15
13	Sagan Tosu	12	−3	14
14	Consadole Sapporo	12	−4	14
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	12	−10	14
16	Montedio Yamagata	12	0	13
17	Blaublitz Akita	12	−1	13
18	Tochigi City	12	−1	12
19	Imabari	12	−10	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	12	−17	10