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Albirex Niigata v Sagan Tosu

Albirex Niigata
2–1Full time
Sagan Tosu

J2 League · WED 21 OCT · Denka Big Swan Stadium

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30
Albirex Niigata 2–1 Sagan Tosu ALBIREX NIIGATA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Albirex Niigata win44%
The market said28%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.464
The market’s Brier score0.783

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Albirex Niigata win at 44%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Albirex Niigata 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Albirex Niigata v Sagan Tosu
  4. 11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Sagan Tosu
  5. 24′We said Albirex Niigata at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
  6. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Albirex Niigata 1–0 Sagan Tosu
  7. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Albirex Niigata win: 44% at kick-off, 72% now
  8. 25′A goal for Albirex Niigata on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
  9. 27′M. Moraes scores for Albirex Niigata on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
  11. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Albirex Niigata win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
  12. 44′We said Albirex Niigata at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Albirex Niigata 1–0 Sagan Tosu
  14. 46′HALF-TIME Albirex Niigata 1–0 Sagan Tosu
  15. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sagan Tosu · On: R. Shiohama · Off: R. Hyon
  16. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sagan Tosu · On: Y. Imazu · Off: S. Nagasawa
  17. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Albirex Niigata
  18. 62′We said Albirex Niigata at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  19. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sagan Tosu · On: K. Yoshino · Off: M. Yoshida
  20. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sagan Tosu · On: H. Goto · Off: T. Takahashi
  21. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Albirex Niigata win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
  22. 74′We said Albirex Niigata at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–1
  23. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Albirex Niigata · On: K. Kuwayama · Off: M. Moraes
  24. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Sagan Tosu · On: Park Ho-Min · Off: K. Yamauchi
  25. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Albirex Niigata · On: K. Kasai · Off: T. Osawa
  26. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Albirex Niigata · On: C. Konagaya · Off: Y. Wakatsuki
  27. 80′We said Albirex Niigata at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  28. 80′Albirex Niigata score on 80′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  29. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Albirex Niigata 2–0 Sagan Tosu
  30. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Albirex Niigata win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
  31. 82′We said Albirex Niigata at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–0
  32. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Albirex Niigata 2–1 Sagan Tosu
  33. 83′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 92–7–0
  34. 83′Sagan Tosu find the net on 83′. 2–1. 2–1 · 92–7–0
  35. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Albirex Niigata · On: M. Sato · Off: K. Shimabuku
  36. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Albirex Niigata · On: M. Fitzgerald · Off: M. Sekiguchi
  37. FTFULL TIME Albirex Niigata 2–1 Sagan Tosu
  38. FTAlbirex Niigata 2–1 Sagan Tosu · Albirex Niigata win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Albirex Niigata are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Albirex Niigata 44%, draw 26%, Sagan Tosu 30%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Albirex Niigata v Sagan TosuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Albirex Niigata win44%
Draw26%
Sagan Tosu win30%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueDenka Big Swan Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Albirex Niigata

Sagan Tosu

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League

Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Albirex Niigata11−420
12Sagan Tosu11−214

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · albirex niigata winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
44% The market28%
Us44%
Market28%

We make Albirex Niigata a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Albirex Niigata v Sagan Tosu1.46 – 1.14
Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 12 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 20 v 143 v 12
The market · Albirex Niigata win28% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45%50% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 10:38
Our probability · Albirex Niigata win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Albirex Niigata win44%28%+16
Draw26%29%−3
Sagan Tosu win30%43%−13
Over 2.5 goals48%44%+4
Both teams to score51%50%+1
Over 1.5 goals73%69%+4
Over 3.5 goals26%25%+1
Albirex Niigata or draw70%57%+13
Albirex Niigata clean sheet32%––
Sagan Tosu clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%
0123450 7.7 8.5 4.9 1 10.9 12.2 6.9 2.7 2 7.9 8.8 5.0 3 3.9 4.3 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Albirex Niigata down, Sagan Tosu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsALB 3–4 SAG · SAG 1–2 ALB · ALB 1–1 SAG · SAG 2–0 ALB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 12 Sept

ALBIREX NIIGATA

WWDWDL1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–5

SAGAN TOSU

LLLLWW0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vegalta Sendai11+1024
2Omiya Ardija11+1020
3Albirex Niigata11−420
4Kataller Toyama11+919
5Yokohama FC11+618
6Shonan Bellmare11+218
7Oita Trinita11+717
8Iwaki11+115
9Fujieda MYFC11+214
10Tegevajaro Miyazaki11014
11Jubilo Iwata11−114
12Sagan Tosu11−214
13Tokushima Vortis11−214
14Consadole Sapporo12−414
15Blaublitz Akita11013
16Montedio Yamagata12013
17Tochigi City11−111
18Imabari11−811
19Vanraure Hachinohe11−1111
20Ventforet Kofu11−1410

The competition's standings before kick-off.