Albirex Niigata v Kataller Toyama prediction · J2 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Albirex NiigataDrawKataller Toyama

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Albirex Niigata 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Albirex Niigata are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Albirex Niigata 42%, draw 26%, Kataller Toyama 32%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Albirex Niigata v Kataller ToyamaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Albirex Niigata win42%

Draw26%

Kataller Toyama win32%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueDenka Big Swan Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Albirex Niigata

Kataller Toyama

10Days since last match10

Last match: 21 Oct · J2 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Albirex Niigata	12	−3	23
3	Kataller Toyama	12	+12	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · albirex niigata winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Albirex Niigata a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Albirex Niigata v Kataller Toyama~~1.47 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 23 v 22~~2 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Albirex Niigata win	42%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Kataller Toyama win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Albirex Niigata or draw	68%	–	–
Albirex Niigata clean sheet	30%	–	–
Kataller Toyama clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.0 8.3 5.2 2.2 1 9.9 12.0 7.3 3.1 2 7.2 8.6 5.3 2.2 3 3.6 4.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Albirex Niigata down, Kataller Toyama across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,280 J2 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Albirex Niigata at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kataller Toyama away: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Albirex Niigata, 1.23 for Kataller Toyama. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KAT 2–0 ALB · ALB 2–3 KAT · KAT 2–2 ALB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept

ALBIREX NIIGATA

WDWDLW2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 2–1

KATALLER TOYAMA

WDWDDW2–0 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	12	+12	27
2	Albirex Niigata	12	−3	23
3	Kataller Toyama	12	+12	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	+9	22
5	Omiya Ardija	13	+7	21
6	Shonan Bellmare	12	+2	19
7	Oita Trinita	12	+7	18
8	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	12	+1	17
9	Tokushima Vortis	13	−2	17
10	Iwaki	12	+1	16
11	Fujieda MYFC	13	+1	15
12	Jubilo Iwata	12	−1	15
13	Sagan Tosu	12	−3	14
14	Consadole Sapporo	12	−4	14
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	12	−10	14
16	Montedio Yamagata	12	0	13
17	Blaublitz Akita	12	−1	13
18	Tochigi City	12	−1	12
19	Imabari	12	−10	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	12	−17	10