Yokohama F. Marinos v Tokyo Verdy prediction · J1 League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30

Yokohama F. Marinos 2–2 Tokyo Verdy YOKOHAMA F. MARINOS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yokohama F. Marinos win~~55%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.917

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.820

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yokohama F. Marinos win at 55%.
2′Much as we predicted: Yokohama F. Marinos was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
2′KICK-OFF Yokohama F. Marinos v Tokyo Verdy
6′SUBSTITUTION · 6' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Riku Yamane · Off: Kei Chinen
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Kanya Fujimoto · Tokyo Verdy
23′Yokohama F. Marinos ahead on 23′ through Ryo Miyaichi. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–5
23′We published Yokohama F. Marinos at 55%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Yokohama F. Marinos 1–0 Tokyo Verdy · Ryo Miyaichi
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Kaito Suzuki · Tokyo Verdy
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–5
45′HALF-TIME Yokohama F. Marinos 1–0 Tokyo Verdy
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Tokyo Verdy · On: Soma Kanda · Off: Kazunari Ichimi
46′SECOND HALF Yokohama F. Marinos 1–0 Tokyo Verdy
51′We published Yokohama F. Marinos at 55%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
51′Daiya Tono scores for Yokohama F. Marinos on 50′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Yokohama F. Marinos 2–0 Tokyo Verdy
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 55% at kick-off, 97% now
55′GOAL DISALLOWED · 55' Yokohama F. Marinos
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 55% at kick-off, 83% now
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Yokohama F. Marinos 2–0 Tokyo Verdy · Daiya Tono
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 55% at kick-off, 97% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Tokyo Verdy · On: Yosuke Uchida · Off: Kaito Suzuki
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Tokyo Verdy · On: Koki Morita · Off: Kosuke Saito
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Tomoki Kondo · Off: Jordy Croux
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Toichi Suzuki · Off: Daiya Tono Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Jun Amano · Off: Takuto Kimura Corrected
73′We published Yokohama F. Marinos at 55%. Our model now makes it 88%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Tokyo Verdy · On: Maaya Sako · Off: Cho Yu-Min
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Yokohama F. Marinos 2–1 Tokyo Verdy
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 55% at kick-off, 88% now
74′73′: Kanya Fujimoto on the scoresheet for Tokyo Verdy, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 89–10–1
75′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 89–10–1
76′We published Yokohama F. Marinos at 55%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Takuya Kida · Off: Jun Amano
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Tokyo Verdy · On: Goki Yamada · Off: Issei Kumatoriya
93′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 2–2 · 3–96–1
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Yokohama F. Marinos 2–2 Tokyo Verdy
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 55% at kick-off, 3% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Yokohama F. Marinos win 99%)
94′Tokyo Verdy level it on 90′ through Goki Yamada. 2–2. 2–2 · 2–97–1
95′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 2–97–1
FTFULL TIME Yokohama F. Marinos 2–2 Tokyo Verdy
FTYokohama F. Marinos 2–2 Tokyo Verdy · Yokohama F. Marinos win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yokohama F. Marinos are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yokohama F. Marinos 55%, draw 24%, Tokyo Verdy 20%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Yokohama F. Marinos v Tokyo VerdyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Yokohama F. Marinos win55%

Draw24%

Tokyo Verdy win20%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueJapan National Stadium

RefereeKoya Yukie

Line-ups

Yokohama F. Marinos

4-2-3-1

Tokyo Verdy

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yokohama F. Marinos

Tokyo Verdy

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · J1 League

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	10	+4	16
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	−14	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Yokohama F. Marinos

4-2-3-1

21 H. Iikura

34 T. Kimura

17 J. Quiñónes

33 K. Suwama

13 T. Inoue

14 K. Chinen

41 K. Matsumura

23 R. Miyaichi

7 D. Tono

11 J. Croux

9 K. Tanimura

Coach · S. Corica

Substitutes

19 · Tevis Gabriel

28 · R. Yamane

40 · J. Amano

44 · T. Deng

8 · T. Kida

24 · T. Kondo

43 · R. Nitta

1 · Park Il-Gyu

25 · T. Suzuki

Tokyo Verdy

3-4-2-1

1 Matheus Vidotto

15 K. Suzuki

4 N. Hayashi

96 Cho Yu-Min

19 K. Fujimoto

8 K. Saito

16 R. Hirakawa

18 S. Mizoguchi

40 Y. Arai

25 I. Kumatoriya

33 K. Ichimi

Coach · N. Soma

Substitutes

17 · Kim Hyun-Woo

7 · Y. Matsuhashi

10 · K. Morita

21 · Y. Nagasawa

29 · M. Sako

2 · K. Shibato

22 · Y. Uchida

13 · G. Yamada

38 · S. Kanda

Our number · yokohama f. marinos winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

55% The market51%

Us55%

~~Market~~51%

We make Yokohama F. Marinos a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yokohama F. Marinos v Tokyo Verdy~~1.67 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 4~~8 v 20

~~The market · Yokohama F. Marinos win~~51% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yokohama F. Marinos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yokohama F. Marinos win	55%	51%	+4
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Tokyo Verdy win	20%	21%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	43%	+4
Both teams to score	48%	46%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	67%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	26%	23%	+3
Yokohama F. Marinos or draw	80%	79%	+1
Yokohama F. Marinos clean sheet	41%	–	–
Tokyo Verdy clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 7.9 6.9 3.1 1 12.7 11.5 5.1 2 10.6 9.4 4.3 3 5.9 5.3 2.4 4 2.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yokohama F. Marinos down, Tokyo Verdy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,672 J1 League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yokohama F. Marinos at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tokyo Verdy away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Yokohama F. Marinos, 0.90 for Tokyo Verdy. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 10:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TOK 0–6 YOK · YOK 3–2 TOK · TOK 1–0 YOK · YOK 0–0 TOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept

YOKOHAMA F. MARINOS

DWDWDD1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

TOKYO VERDY

LDDLLL0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	+19	23
2	Machida Zelvia	10	+15	23
3	FC Tokyo	10	+13	23
4	Vissel Kobe	10	+8	22
5	Kashiwa Reysol	10	+5	21
6	Kashima	10	+5	19
7	Kawasaki Frontale	10	+5	16
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	10	+4	16
9	Urawa	10	−4	15
10	Shimizu S-pulse	10	−1	14
11	Fagiano Okayama	10	−3	13
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	−4	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	−7	12
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	−2	9
15	V-varen Nagasaki	10	−7	9
16	Kyoto Sanga	10	−8	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	10	−5	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	−8	7
19	JEF United Chiba	10	−11	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	−14	4