Vissel Kobe v Nagoya Grampus prediction · J1 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Vissel KobeDrawNagoya Grampus

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 06:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Vissel Kobe 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vissel Kobe are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vissel Kobe 53%, draw 25%, Nagoya Grampus 22%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Vissel Kobe v Nagoya GrampusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Vissel Kobe win53%

Draw25%

Nagoya Grampus win22%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueNoevir Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vissel Kobe

Nagoya Grampus

7Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · J1 League

Last match: 25 Oct · J1 League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Vissel Kobe	12	+7	23
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	−4	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vissel kobe winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Vissel Kobe a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vissel Kobe v Nagoya Grampus~~1.63 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 13~~5 v 12

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vissel Kobe win	53%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Nagoya Grampus win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Vissel Kobe or draw	78%	–	–
Vissel Kobe clean sheet	38%	–	–
Nagoya Grampus clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%

0123450 7.8 7.1 3.5 1 12.0 11.8 5.6 2 9.9 9.4 4.6 3 5.4 5.1 2.5 4 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vissel Kobe down, Nagoya Grampus across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,687 J1 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vissel Kobe at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Nagoya Grampus away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Vissel Kobe, 0.97 for Nagoya Grampus. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VIS 3–2 NAG · NAG 0–3 VIS · VIS 2–1 NAG · NAG 2–2 VIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 11 Sept

VISSEL KOBE

WWLWLD2–1 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

NAGOYA GRAMPUS

LLWWDD0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Machida Zelvia	12	+20	27
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	+19	26
3	Kashiwa Reysol	12	+6	25
4	FC Tokyo	11	+13	24
5	Vissel Kobe	12	+7	23
6	Kashima	12	+4	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	+6	19
8	Urawa	11	−3	18
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	11	+4	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	−1	16
11	Shimizu S-pulse	12	−10	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	−4	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	−7	13
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	−3	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	−7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	−8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	11	−4	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	−12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	−8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	11	−12	6