

Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia
Vissel Kobe
Machida ZelviaJ1 League · SAT 24 OCT · Noevir Stadium Kobe
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Vissel Kobe win at 40%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Vissel Kobe was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
- 1′KICK-OFF Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia
- 16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Takuma Nishimura · Machida Zelvia
- 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Vissel Kobe win 36%)
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Machida Zelvia · On: Min-Tae Kim · Off: Daihachi Okamura
- 45′SECOND HALF Vissel Kobe 0–0 Machida Zelvia
- 49′Vissel Kobe have had 10 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 32–42–26
- 49′HALF-TIME Vissel Kobe 0–0 Machida Zelvia
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Vissel Kobe win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
- 55′We said Vissel Kobe at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–48–24
- 56′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 28–49–23
- 63′We said Vissel Kobe at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Vissel Kobe · On: Ren Komatsu · Off: Yuya Osako
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Vissel Kobe · On: Daiju Sasaki · Off: Yuta Goke
- 65′15 shots for Machida Zelvia, 10 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 23–57–20
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Vissel Kobe win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Vissel Kobe · On: Jean Patric Lima dos Reis · Off: Katsuya Nagato
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Machida Zelvia · On: Mitchell Duke · Off: Takuma Nishimura
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Machida Zelvia · On: Ryohei Shirasaki · Off: Neta Lavi
- 72′We said Vissel Kobe at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
- 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Hiroyuki Mae · Machida Zelvia
- 78′We said Vissel Kobe at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Vissel Kobe win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
- 83′We said Vissel Kobe at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Machida Zelvia · On: Hotaka Nakamura · Off: Thomas Ouwejan
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Machida Zelvia · On: Futa Tokumura · Off: Yuki Soma
- 90′We said Vissel Kobe at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
- 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Diego Jara Rodrigues · Vissel Kobe
- 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Vissel Kobe · On: Tetsushi Yamakawa · Off: João Victor Andrade Caetano
- FTFULL TIME Vissel Kobe 0–0 Machida Zelvia
- FTVissel Kobe 0–0 Machida Zelvia · Vissel Kobe win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Vissel Kobe are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Vissel Kobe 40%, draw 28%, Machida Zelvia 32%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Vissel Kobe win40%
Machida Zelvia win32%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 07:00
RoundMatchday 12
VenueNoevir Stadium Kobe
Match timeline
All events
Vissel KobeMIN
Machida ZelviaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Vissel Kobe
4-3-3
Machida Zelvia
3-4-2-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Vissel Kobe
Machida Zelvia
Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League
Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Vissel Kobe
4-3-3
71 S. Gonda
24 G. Sakai
3 Matheus Thuler
16 Caetano
15 Diego
7 Y. Ideguchi
23 Yuan Iwamoto
5 Y. Goke
11 Y. Muto
10 Y. Osako
41 K. Nagato
Coach · M. Skibbe
Substitutes
20 · K. Watanabe
4 · T. Yamakawa
44 · M. Hidaka
26 · Jean Patrick
62 · H. Kawabata
29 · R. Komatsu
25 · Y. Kuwasaki
1 · D. Maekawa
13 · D. Sasaki
Machida Zelvia
3-4-2-1
1 K. Tani
3 G. Shōji
50 D. Okamura
2 T. Ouwejan
6 H. Mochizuki
16 H. Mae
31 N. Lavi
33 T. Akimoto
20 T. Nishimura
7 Y. Soma
9 Koki Ogawa
Coach · G. Kuroda
Substitutes
15 · M. Duke
24 · Kim Min-Tae
13 · T. Morita
88 · H. Nakamura
8 · K. Sento
18 · H. Shimoda
23 · R. Shirasaki
34 · Futa Tokumura
5 · I. Drešević
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Vissel Kobe
4-3-3
71 S. Gonda
24 G. Sakai
3 Matheus Thuler
16 Caetano
15 Diego
7 Y. Ideguchi
23 Yuan Iwamoto
5 Y. Goke
11 Y. Muto
10 Y. Osako
41 K. Nagato
Coach · M. Skibbe
Substitutes
20 · K. Watanabe
4 · T. Yamakawa
44 · M. Hidaka
26 · Jean Patrick
62 · H. Kawabata
29 · R. Komatsu
25 · Y. Kuwasaki
1 · D. Maekawa
13 · D. Sasaki
Machida Zelvia
3-4-2-1
1 K. Tani
3 G. Shōji
50 D. Okamura
2 T. Ouwejan
6 H. Mochizuki
16 H. Mae
31 N. Lavi
33 T. Akimoto
20 T. Nishimura
7 Y. Soma
9 Koki Ogawa
Coach · G. Kuroda
Substitutes
15 · M. Duke
24 · Kim Min-Tae
13 · T. Morita
88 · H. Nakamura
8 · K. Sento
18 · H. Shimoda
23 · R. Shirasaki
34 · Futa Tokumura
5 · I. Drešević
We make Vissel Kobe a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 42%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vissel Kobe win | 40% | 39% | +1 |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | −1 |
| Machida Zelvia win | 32% | 32% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 24% | −1 |
| Vissel Kobe or draw | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Vissel Kobe clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
| Machida Zelvia clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2022Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept
VISSEL KOBE
MACHIDA ZELVIA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 11 | +20 | 26 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | +15 | 23 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 11 | +7 | 22 |
| 5 | Kashiwa Reysol | 11 | +5 | 22 |
| 6 | Kashima | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 11 | +6 | 19 |
| 8 | Urawa | 11 | −3 | 18 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 11 | −1 | 16 |
| 11 | Shimizu S-pulse | 11 | −6 | 14 |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 11 | −4 | 13 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 11 | −7 | 13 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | −3 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 11 | −7 | 10 |
| 16 | Mito Hollyhock | 11 | −4 | 9 |
| 17 | Kyoto Sanga | 11 | −8 | 9 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 11 | −6 | 7 |
| 19 | JEF United Chiba | 11 | −12 | 6 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 11 | −14 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
FC Tokyo
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashima
Kawasaki Frontale
Urawa
Yokohama F. Marinos
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka
Mito Hollyhock
Kyoto Sanga
Avispa Fukuoka
JEF United Chiba
Tokyo Verdy