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Home › Football › J1 League › Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia

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Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia

Vissel Kobe
0–0Full time
Machida Zelvia

J1 League · SAT 24 OCT · Noevir Stadium Kobe

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 10:03
Vissel Kobe 0–0 Machida Zelvia VISSEL KOBE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Vissel Kobe win40%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.790
The market’s Brier score0.760

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vissel Kobe win at 40%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Vissel Kobe was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia
  4. 16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Takuma Nishimura · Machida Zelvia
  5. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Vissel Kobe win 36%)
  6. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Machida Zelvia · On: Min-Tae Kim · Off: Daihachi Okamura
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Vissel Kobe 0–0 Machida Zelvia
  8. 49′Vissel Kobe have had 10 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 32–42–26
  9. 49′HALF-TIME Vissel Kobe 0–0 Machida Zelvia
  10. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Vissel Kobe win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
  11. 55′We said Vissel Kobe at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–48–24
  12. 56′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 28–49–23
  13. 63′We said Vissel Kobe at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
  14. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Vissel Kobe · On: Ren Komatsu · Off: Yuya Osako
  15. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Vissel Kobe · On: Daiju Sasaki · Off: Yuta Goke
  16. 65′15 shots for Machida Zelvia, 10 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 23–57–20
  17. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Vissel Kobe win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
  18. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Vissel Kobe · On: Jean Patric Lima dos Reis · Off: Katsuya Nagato
  19. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Machida Zelvia · On: Mitchell Duke · Off: Takuma Nishimura
  20. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Machida Zelvia · On: Ryohei Shirasaki · Off: Neta Lavi
  21. 72′We said Vissel Kobe at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
  22. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Hiroyuki Mae · Machida Zelvia
  23. 78′We said Vissel Kobe at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
  24. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Vissel Kobe win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
  25. 83′We said Vissel Kobe at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
  26. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Machida Zelvia · On: Hotaka Nakamura · Off: Thomas Ouwejan
  27. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Machida Zelvia · On: Futa Tokumura · Off: Yuki Soma
  28. 90′We said Vissel Kobe at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
  29. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Diego Jara Rodrigues · Vissel Kobe
  30. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Vissel Kobe · On: Tetsushi Yamakawa · Off: João Victor Andrade Caetano
  31. FTFULL TIME Vissel Kobe 0–0 Machida Zelvia
  32. FTVissel Kobe 0–0 Machida Zelvia · Vissel Kobe win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vissel Kobe are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vissel Kobe 40%, draw 28%, Machida Zelvia 32%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Vissel Kobe v Machida ZelviaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Vissel Kobe win40%
Draw28%
Machida Zelvia win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 07:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueNoevir Stadium Kobe

Line-ups

Vissel Kobe

4-3-3

Machida Zelvia

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vissel Kobe

Machida Zelvia

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Machida Zelvia11+2026
4Vissel Kobe11+722

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vissel Kobe

4-3-3

71 S. Gonda

24 G. Sakai

3 Matheus Thuler

16 Caetano

15 Diego

7 Y. Ideguchi

23 Yuan Iwamoto

5 Y. Goke

11 Y. Muto

10 Y. Osako

41 K. Nagato

Coach · M. Skibbe

Substitutes

20 · K. Watanabe

4 · T. Yamakawa

44 · M. Hidaka

26 · Jean Patrick

62 · H. Kawabata

29 · R. Komatsu

25 · Y. Kuwasaki

1 · D. Maekawa

13 · D. Sasaki

Machida Zelvia

3-4-2-1

1 K. Tani

3 G. Shōji

50 D. Okamura

2 T. Ouwejan

6 H. Mochizuki

16 H. Mae

31 N. Lavi

33 T. Akimoto

20 T. Nishimura

7 Y. Soma

9 Koki Ogawa

Coach · G. Kuroda

Substitutes

15 · M. Duke

24 · Kim Min-Tae

13 · T. Morita

88 · H. Nakamura

8 · K. Sento

18 · H. Shimoda

23 · R. Shirasaki

34 · Futa Tokumura

5 · I. Drešević

Our number · vissel kobe winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
40% The market39%
Us40%
Market39%

We make Vissel Kobe a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia1.31 – 1.13
Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 SeptW4 D0 L2 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 22 v 264 v 1
The market · Vissel Kobe win39% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 06:40
Our probability · Vissel Kobe win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Vissel Kobe win40%39%+1
Draw28%29%−1
Machida Zelvia win32%32%0
Over 2.5 goals44%45%−1
Both teams to score49%50%−1
Over 1.5 goals70%68%+2
Over 3.5 goals23%24%−1
Vissel Kobe or draw68%68%0
Vissel Kobe clean sheet32%––
Machida Zelvia clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 9.1 9.7 5.6 2.1 1 11.2 13.0 7.2 2.8 2 7.4 8.3 4.7 3 3.3 3.6 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Vissel Kobe down, Machida Zelvia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.52 of 5
Both scored2 of 5
Last meetingsMAC 3–1 VIS · MAC 2–0 VIS · VIS 1–0 MAC · VIS 0–0 MAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept

VISSEL KOBE

WWWLWL3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 3–0 · 1–2

MACHIDA ZELVIA

WDLWWW3–1 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Machida Zelvia11+2026
2FC Tokyo11+1324
3Sanfrecce Hiroshima11+1523
4Vissel Kobe11+722
5Kashiwa Reysol11+522
6Kashima11+520
7Kawasaki Frontale11+619
8Urawa11−318
9Yokohama F. Marinos11+417
10Fagiano Okayama11−116
11Shimizu S-pulse11−614
12Nagoya Grampus11−413
13Cerezo Osaka11−713
14V-varen Nagasaki11−312
15Gamba Osaka11−710
16Mito Hollyhock11−49
17Kyoto Sanga11−89
18Avispa Fukuoka11−67
19JEF United Chiba11−126
20Tokyo Verdy11−145

The competition's standings before kick-off.