V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction · J1 League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30

V-varen Nagasaki 4–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima win~~55%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.974

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.249

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sanfrecce Hiroshima win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 55% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 21–24–54
1′KICK-OFF V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima
23′SUBSTITUTION · 23' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Yusei Egawa · Off: Takuma Ominami
27′Sanfrecce Hiroshima have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 21–31–48
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Hijiri Onaga · V-varen Nagasaki
29′8 shots for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 21–31–48
35′We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 54–27–19
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' V-varen Nagasaki 1–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 55% at kick-off, 19% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' V-varen Nagasaki win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 46%)
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 55–27–18
37′36′: Hijiri Onaga on the scoresheet for V-varen Nagasaki, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 55–27–18
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
45′We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–11–4
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' V-varen Nagasaki 2–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 55% at kick-off, 4% now
45′SECOND HALF V-varen Nagasaki 2–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Kim Ju-sung · Off: Daiki Suga
46′V-varen Nagasaki ahead on 45′ through Matheus Jesus. 2–0. 2–0 · 86–11–4
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Mutsuki Kato · Off: Takuma Asano
49′HALF-TIME V-varen Nagasaki 2–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Kenshin Yasuda · Off: Takashi Sawada
55′Sanfrecce Hiroshima have had 13 attempts to 5 and it is still 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–2
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Jonathan Junior · V-varen Nagasaki
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Shun Ayukawa · Off: Yotaro Nakajima
66′🟥 RED CARD · 66' Sanfrecce Hiroshima
68′Sanfrecce Hiroshima are down to ten from 66′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 95–5–1
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Taishi Matsumoto · Off: Naoto Arai
72′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' V-varen Nagasaki 3–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
74′Kenshin Yasuda scores for V-varen Nagasaki on 73′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Asahi Masuyama · Off: Shunya Yoneda
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Ryogo Yamasaki · Off: Jonathan Junior
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Ryosuke Shindo · Off: Hijiri Onaga
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Takumu Kawamura · Off: Akito Suzuki
95′Sanfrecce Hiroshima have had 17 attempts to 11 and it is still 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
96′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' V-varen Nagasaki 4–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
97′90′: Kenshin Yasuda on the scoresheet for V-varen Nagasaki, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME V-varen Nagasaki 4–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FTV-varen Nagasaki 4–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sanfrecce Hiroshima are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: V-varen Nagasaki 21%, draw 24%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 55%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce HiroshimaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

V-varen Nagasaki win21%

Draw24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima win55%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenuePeace Stadium connected by SoftBank

RefereeHiroyuki Kimura

Line-ups

V-varen Nagasaki

3-4-2-1

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

V-varen Nagasaki

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · J1 League

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

V-varen Nagasaki

3-4-2-1

1 M. Goto

25 T. Ominami

29 I. Arai

31 K. Doi

22 H. Onaga

5 H. Yamaguchi

41 M. Hasegawa

23 S. Yoneda

10 Matheus Jesus

19 T. Sawada

99 Jonathan

Coach · T. Takagi

Substitutes

6 · Y. Egawa

21 · Diego Pituca

13 · G. Hatano

88 · A. Masuyama

50 · R. Shindo

24 · R. Yamada

18 · R. Yamasaki

7 · K. Yasuda

34 · T. Matsumoto

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

3-4-2-1

1 K. Osako

15 S. Nakano

4 H. Araki

7 S. Higashi

5 N. Arai

6 H. Kawabe

35 Y. Nakajima

18 D. Suga

29 T. Asano

10 A. Suzuki

22 S. Haller

Coach · Bartosch Gaul

Substitutes

23 · S. Ayukawa

99 · I. Ouchi

14 · T. Matsumoto

32 · S. Koshimichi

45 · S. Kobayashi

37 · Kim Ju-Sung

8 · T. Kawamura

11 · M. Kato

9 · K. Yengi

Our number · sanfrecce hiroshima winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 21 Oct 08:08 · locked at kick-off

55% The market68%

Us55%

~~Market~~68%

We make Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima~~0.96 – 1.70

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 23~~15 v 1

~~The market · Sanfrecce Hiroshima win~~68% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sanfrecce Hiroshima win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
V-varen Nagasaki win	21%	13%	+8
Draw	24%	19%	+5
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win	55%	68%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	50%	58%	−8
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	36%	−8
V-varen Nagasaki or draw	45%	32%	+13
V-varen Nagasaki clean sheet	18%	–	–
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.2 11.8 10.0 5.7 2.5 1 6.7 11.4 9.6 5.4 2.3 2 3.3 5.5 4.6 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+V-varen Nagasaki down, Sanfrecce Hiroshima across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,672 J1 League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

V-varen Nagasaki at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sanfrecce Hiroshima away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for V-varen Nagasaki, 1.70 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 10:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAN 2–0 VVA · VVA 1–3 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept

V-VAREN NAGASAKI

DLWDDL2–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA

WLWWWW3–0 · 2–3 · 6–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	+19	23
2	Machida Zelvia	10	+15	23
3	FC Tokyo	10	+13	23
4	Vissel Kobe	10	+8	22
5	Kashiwa Reysol	10	+5	21
6	Kashima	10	+5	19
7	Kawasaki Frontale	10	+5	16
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	10	+4	16
9	Urawa	10	−4	15
10	Shimizu S-pulse	10	−1	14
11	Fagiano Okayama	10	−3	13
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	−4	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	−7	12
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	−2	9
15	V-varen Nagasaki	10	−7	9
16	Kyoto Sanga	10	−8	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	10	−5	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	−8	7
19	JEF United Chiba	10	−11	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	−14	4