Urawa v V-varen Nagasaki prediction · J1 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

UrawaDrawV-varen Nagasaki

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 06:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Urawa 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Urawa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Urawa 49%, draw 25%, V-varen Nagasaki 26%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Urawa v V-varen NagasakiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Urawa win49%

Draw25%

V-varen Nagasaki win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSaitama Stadium 2002

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Urawa

V-varen Nagasaki

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Urawa	11	−3	18
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	−3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · urawa winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

49% The market58%

Us49%

~~Market~~58%

We make Urawa a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Urawa v V-varen Nagasaki~~1.61 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 12~~8 v 14

~~The market · Urawa win~~58% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Urawa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Urawa win	49%	58%	−9
Draw	25%	23%	+2
V-varen Nagasaki win	26%	18%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	50%	53%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	53%	0
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	33%	−4
Urawa or draw	74%	82%	−8
Urawa clean sheet	34%	–	–
V-varen Nagasaki clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.1 7.2 4.0 1 10.8 11.8 6.3 2.3 2 8.8 9.3 5.1 3 4.7 5.0 2.7 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Urawa down, V-varen Nagasaki across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,682 J1 League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Urawa at home: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). V-varen Nagasaki away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Urawa, 1.08 for V-varen Nagasaki. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~VVA 1–0 URA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept

URAWA

WLWLWW1–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 3–2

V-VAREN NAGASAKI

LWDDLW1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Machida Zelvia	12	+20	27
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	+19	26
3	Kashiwa Reysol	12	+6	25
4	FC Tokyo	11	+13	24
5	Vissel Kobe	12	+7	23
6	Kashima	12	+4	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	+6	19
8	Urawa	11	−3	18
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	11	+4	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	−1	16
11	Shimizu S-pulse	12	−10	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	−4	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	−7	13
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	−3	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	−7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	−8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	11	−4	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	−12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	−8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	11	−12	6