Urawa v JEF United Chiba prediction · J1 League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 14:00

Urawa 3–2 JEF United Chiba URAWA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Urawa win~~56%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.297

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.270

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Urawa win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Urawa was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–21
1′KICK-OFF Urawa v JEF United Chiba
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Daisuke Suzuki · JEF United Chiba
19′We published Urawa at 56%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Urawa 1–0 JEF United Chiba
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Urawa win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
21′Takuro Kaneko scores for Urawa on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 79–15–6
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Urawa 1–1 JEF United Chiba
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Urawa win: 56% at kick-off, 48% now
33′31′: Boniface Nduka on the scoresheet for JEF United Chiba, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 47–32–21
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Urawa win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
40′JEF United Chiba have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 45–35–20
42′We said Urawa at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–36–20
45′SECOND HALF Urawa 1–1 JEF United Chiba
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Urawa · On: Shuta Sasa · Off: Kaito Yasui
49′HALF-TIME Urawa 1–1 JEF United Chiba
54′We said Urawa at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–43–18
55′We published Urawa at 56%. Our model now makes it 82%. 2–1 · 82–15–3
55′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 82–15–3
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Urawa 2–1 JEF United Chiba
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Urawa win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
57′Urawa ahead on 55′ through Kenta Nemoto. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–3
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Urawa · On: Hiiro Komori · Off: Renji Hidano
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' JEF United Chiba · On: Matheus Salgueiro Pains · Off: Makoto Himeno
67′We published Urawa at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Ken Yamura · JEF United Chiba
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Urawa win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Kazuki Tanaka · JEF United Chiba
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' JEF United Chiba · On: Taishi Taguchi · Off: Luiz Eduardo Fleuri Pacheco
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' JEF United Chiba · On: Naohiro Sugiyama · Off: Ken Yamura
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' JEF United Chiba · On: Takumi Tsukui · Off: Kazuki Tanaka
78′We published Urawa at 56%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
81′We published Urawa at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
81′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Urawa 3–1 JEF United Chiba
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Urawa win: 56% at kick-off, over 99% now
83′Shuta Sasa scores for Urawa on 81′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' JEF United Chiba · On: Leonardo Rocha · Off: Takuya Yasui
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Urawa · On: Ado Onaiwu · Off: Matheus Sávio
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Matheus Salgueiro Pains · JEF United Chiba
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Taishi Taguchi · JEF United Chiba
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Urawa · On: Kotaro Hayashi · Off: Miki Yamane
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Urawa · On: Jumpei Hayakawa · Off: Takuro Kaneko
92′We published Urawa at 56%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–2 · 98–2–0
92′90′: Takumi Tsukui on the scoresheet for JEF United Chiba, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Urawa 3–2 JEF United Chiba
94′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Urawa 3–2 JEF United Chiba
FTUrawa 3–2 JEF United Chiba · Urawa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Urawa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Urawa 56%, draw 23%, JEF United Chiba 21%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Urawa v JEF United ChibaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Urawa win56%

Draw23%

JEF United Chiba win21%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSaitama Stadium 2002

RefereeKoji Takasaki

Line-ups

Urawa

3-4-2-1

JEF United Chiba

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Urawa

JEF United Chiba

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · J1 League

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Urawa	10	−4	15
19	JEF United Chiba	10	−11	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Urawa

3-4-2-1

1 S. Nishikawa

3 Danilo Boza

2 Y. Miyamoto

5 K. Nemoto

6 M. Yamane

25 K. Yasui

12 T. Seko

88 Y. Naganuma

7 T. Kaneko

10 Matheus Sávio

36 R. Hidano

Coach · Gwi-jae Jo

Substitutes

23 · K. Fukui

11 · Samuel Gustafson

39 · J. Hayakawa

18 · K. Hayashi

17 · H. Komori

15 · K. Kudo

45 · A. Onaiwu

33 · S. Sasa

37 · H. Ueki

JEF United Chiba

4-4-2

19 J. Suarez

15 T. Mae

13 D. Suzuki

2 B. Nduka

67 M. Hidaka

7 K. Tanaka

6 Dudu

41 T. Yasui

37 M. Himeno

99 Erison

29 K. Yamura

Coach · Y. Kobayashi

Substitutes

8 · T. Tsukui

24 · K. Toriumi

4 · T. Taguchi

23 · R. Suzuki

18 · N. Sugiyama

45 · Leonardo Rocha

25 · Matheus Índio

28 · T. Kawano

9 · H. Goya

Our number · urawa winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 04:07 · locked at kick-off

56% The market58%

Us56%

~~Market~~58%

We make Urawa a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Urawa v JEF United Chiba~~1.78 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 6~~9 v 19

~~The market · Urawa win~~58% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Urawa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Urawa win	56%	58%	−2
Draw	23%	24%	−1
JEF United Chiba win	21%	19%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	52%	0
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	31%	−1
Urawa or draw	79%	81%	−2
Urawa clean sheet	37%	–	–
JEF United Chiba clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%

0123450 6.5 6.2 3.1 1 11.1 11.0 5.4 2 9.9 9.7 4.8 3 5.8 5.7 2.8 4 2.6 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Urawa down, JEF United Chiba across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,672 J1 League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Urawa at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). JEF United Chiba away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Urawa, 0.99 for JEF United Chiba. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 11:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~URA 2–0 JEF · JEF 0–2 URA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept

URAWA

WWLWLW3–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 1–0

JEF UNITED CHIBA

LWDLDD1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	+19	23
2	Machida Zelvia	10	+15	23
3	FC Tokyo	10	+13	23
4	Vissel Kobe	10	+8	22
5	Kashiwa Reysol	10	+5	21
6	Kashima	10	+5	19
7	Kawasaki Frontale	10	+5	16
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	10	+4	16
9	Urawa	10	−4	15
10	Shimizu S-pulse	10	−1	14
11	Fagiano Okayama	10	−3	13
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	−4	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	−7	12
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	−2	9
15	V-varen Nagasaki	10	−7	9
16	Kyoto Sanga	10	−8	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	10	−5	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	−8	7
19	JEF United Chiba	10	−11	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	−14	4