Tokyo Verdy v Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction · J1 League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 09:34

Tokyo Verdy 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima win~~52%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.347

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.182

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sanfrecce Hiroshima win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sanfrecce Hiroshima was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 21–27–52
1′KICK-OFF Tokyo Verdy v Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2′Much as we predicted: Sanfrecce Hiroshima was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 21–27–52
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Kim Hyun-Woo · Tokyo Verdy
18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Kim Ju-sung · Sanfrecce Hiroshima
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Kaito Suzuki · Tokyo Verdy
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
45′HALF-TIME Tokyo Verdy 0–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Taishi Matsumoto · Off: Yotaro Nakajima Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Sébastien Haller · Off: Mutsuki Kato Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Shunki Higashi · Off: Kim Ju-sung Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Tokyo Verdy 0–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Tokyo Verdy 0–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Tokyo Verdy 0–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Taishi Matsumoto
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Itsuki Someno · Tokyo Verdy
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Tokyo Verdy · On: Kazunari Ichimi · Off: Kim Hyun-Woo Corrected
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Tokyo Verdy 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Taishi Matsumoto
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Tokyo Verdy 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Akito Suzuki
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Naoki Maeda · Off: Daiki Suga Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Tokyo Verdy · On: Issei Kumatoriya · Off: Kanya Fujimoto Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Tokyo Verdy · On: Shuhei Mizoguchi · Off: Yuya Fukuda Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Takuma Asano · Off: Shun Ayukawa Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Tokyo Verdy · On: Goki Yamada · Off: Kazunari Ichimi Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Tokyo Verdy · On: Goki Yamada · Off: Kazunari Ichimi Corrected
FTFULL TIME Tokyo Verdy 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FTTokyo Verdy 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Tokyo Verdy win22%

Draw26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima win52%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 07:00

VenueAjinomoto Stadium

RefereeHiroki Kasahara

Line-ups

Tokyo Verdy

4-4-2

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Tokyo Verdy

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	8	+14	17
19	Tokyo Verdy	8	−8	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tokyo Verdy

4-4-2

1 Matheus Vidotto

15 Kaito Suzuki

4 Naoki Hayashi

29 Maaya Sako

40 Yuta Arai

19 Kanya Fujimoto

2 Kai Shibato

8 Kosuke Saito

14 Yuya Fukuda

9 Itsuki Someno

17 Kim Hyun-Woo

Coach · Hitoshi Morishita

Substitutes

33 · Kazunari Ichimi

18 · Shuhei Mizoguchi

25 · Issei Kumatoriya

24 · Shion Nakayama

13 · Goki Yamada

21 · Yuya Nagasawa

5 · Inoue Ryota

22 · Yosuke Uchida

16 · Rei Hirakawa

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

3-4-2-1

1 Keisuke Osako

15 Shuto Nakano

4 Hayato Araki

37 Ju-sung Kim

5 Naoto Arai

6 Hayao Kawabe

35 Yotaro Nakajima

18 Daiki Suga

11 Mutsuki Kato

10 Akito Suzuki

23 Shun Ayukawa

Coach · Bartosch Gaul

Substitutes

7 · Shunki Higashi

14 · Taishi Matsumoto

22 · Sébastien Haller

41 · Maeda Naoki

29 · Takuma Asano

99 · Issei Ouchi

45 · Shimon Kobayashi

46 · Rento Noguchi

32 · Sota Koshimichi

Our number · sanfrecce hiroshima winPublished 11 Oct 07:02

52% The market65%

Us52%

~~Market~~65%

We make Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sanfrecce hiroshima win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 64% to 65% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tokyo Verdy win	22%	14%	+8
Draw	26%	21%	+6
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win	52%	65%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	41%	56%	−15
Both teams to score	44%	51%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	67%	78%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	21%	35%	−15
Tokyo Verdy or draw	48%	35%	+13
Tokyo Verdy clean sheet	23%	–	–
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.4%

0123450 9.9 14.4 10.6 5.3 1 8.2 12.2 8.9 4.4 2 3.5 5.1 3.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tokyo Verdy down, Sanfrecce Hiroshima across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,658 J1 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tokyo Verdy at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sanfrecce Hiroshima away: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.85 goals for Tokyo Verdy, 1.48 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 06:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TOK 0–3 SAN · SAN 2–1 TOK · TOK 0–1 SAN · SAN 4–1 TOK

Form · last six in J1 League

TOKYO VERDY

DLLDDL0–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA

DDWLWW1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 6–1 · 1–0

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kashiwa Reysol	9	+7	21
2	Machida Zelvia	9	+12	20
3	FC Tokyo	9	+9	20
4	Vissel Kobe	9	+5	19
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	8	+14	17
6	Kashima	9	+3	16
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	9	+4	15
8	Kawasaki Frontale	8	+4	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	9	0	13
10	Urawa	9	−5	12
11	Cerezo Osaka	9	−5	12
12	Shimizu S-pulse	8	−2	10
13	Mito Hollyhock	8	0	9
14	Kyoto Sanga	9	−5	8
15	V-varen Nagasaki	8	−5	8
16	Avispa Fukuoka	9	−2	7
17	Nagoya Grampus	8	−7	6
18	Gamba Osaka	9	−8	6
19	Tokyo Verdy	8	−8	4
20	JEF United Chiba	8	−11	4