Tokyo Verdy v FC Tokyo prediction · J1 League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 08:31

Tokyo Verdy 0–4 FC Tokyo FC TOKYO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Tokyo win~~44%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.471

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.287

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Tokyo win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Tokyo was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 28–28–44
1′KICK-OFF Tokyo Verdy v FC Tokyo
19′A red card for Tokyo Verdy on 18′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 27–32–41
19′🟥 RED CARD · 18' Itsuki Someno · Tokyo Verdy
29′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Tokyo Verdy · On: Issei Kumatoriya · Off: Yuya Fukuda
37′7 shots for FC Tokyo, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 25–39–36
40′9 shots for FC Tokyo, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 24–40–35
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was FC Tokyo win 35%)
42′We published FC Tokyo at 44%. Our model now makes it 76%. 0–1 · 6–18–76
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Tokyo Verdy 0–1 FC Tokyo
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' FC Tokyo win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' FC Tokyo win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 18%)
43′41′: Alexander Scholz on the scoresheet for FC Tokyo, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–18–76
44′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 5–18–76
45′HALF-TIME Tokyo Verdy 0–1 FC Tokyo
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Tokyo Verdy · On: Kazunari Ichimi · Off: Kim Hyun-Woo
46′SECOND HALF Tokyo Verdy 0–1 FC Tokyo
56′FC Tokyo ahead on 55′ through Marcelo. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
56′We published FC Tokyo at 44%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 0–3–96
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Tokyo Verdy 0–2 FC Tokyo · Marcelo (penalty)
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' FC Tokyo win: 44% at kick-off, 96% now
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Yuta Arai · Tokyo Verdy
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Tokyo Verdy · On: Rei Hirakawa · Off: Kosuke Saito
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Tokyo · On: Rio Omori · Off: Kashif Bangnagande
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Tokyo · On: Kein Sato · Off: Kota Tawaratsumida
69′We published FC Tokyo at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
69′Motoki Nagakura scores for FC Tokyo on 68′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Tokyo Verdy 0–3 FC Tokyo
71′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Tokyo · On: Kyota Tokiwa · Off: Takahiro Ko
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Tokyo Verdy · On: Koki Morita · Off: Kanya Fujimoto
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Tokyo Verdy · On: Cho Yu-Min · Off: Kai Shibato
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Kazunari Ichimi · Tokyo Verdy
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC Tokyo · On: Fuki Yamada · Off: Soma Anzai
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC Tokyo · On: Dani Gómez · Off: Marcelo
95′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
95′90′: Dani Gómez on the scoresheet for FC Tokyo, making it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Tokyo Verdy 0–4 FC Tokyo
FTFULL TIME Tokyo Verdy 0–4 FC Tokyo
FTTokyo Verdy 0–4 FC Tokyo · FC Tokyo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Tokyo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tokyo Verdy 28%, draw 28%, FC Tokyo 44%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Tokyo Verdy v FC TokyoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tokyo Verdy win28%

Draw28%

FC Tokyo win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAjinomoto Stadium

RefereeAtsushi Kamimura

Line-ups

Tokyo Verdy

4-4-2

FC Tokyo

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tokyo Verdy

FC Tokyo

6Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · J1 League

Last match: 14 Oct · J-League Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	FC Tokyo	9	+9	20
20	Tokyo Verdy	9	−10	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tokyo Verdy

4-4-2

1 Matheus Vidotto

15 Kaito Suzuki

4 Naoki Hayashi

29 Maaya Sako

40 Yuta Arai

19 Kanya Fujimoto

2 Kai Shibato

8 Kosuke Saito

14 Yuya Fukuda

17 Kim Hyun-Woo

9 Itsuki Someno

Coach · Naoki Soma

Substitutes

25 · Issei Kumatoriya

33 · Kazunari Ichimi

16 · Rei Hirakawa

96 · Yu-min Cho

10 · Koki Morita

21 · Yuya Nagasawa

22 · Yosuke Uchida

7 · Yuan Matsuhashi

13 · Goki Yamada

FC Tokyo

4-2-3-1

81 Kim Seung-gyu

22 Hirokazu Ishihara

24 Alexander Scholz

4 Hayato Inamura

6 Kashif Bangnagande

20 Shuto Nagano

8 Takahiro Ko

7 Soma Anzai

26 Motoki Nagakura

33 Kota Tawaratsumida

9 Marcelo Ryan

Coach · Rikizo Matsuhashi

Substitutes

15 · Rio Omori

10 · Kein Sato

27 · Kyota Tokiwa

99 · Dani Gómez

71 · Fuki Yamada

1 · Hayate Tanaka

3 · Masato Morishige

44 · Kaede Suzuki

39 · Teruhito Nakagawa

Our number · fc tokyo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:40 · locked at kick-off

44% The market56%

Us44%

~~Market~~56%

We make FC Tokyo a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tokyo Verdy v FC Tokyo~~0.99 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 20~~20 v 4

~~The market · FC Tokyo win~~56% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Tokyo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tokyo Verdy win	28%	18%	+10
Draw	28%	25%	+3
FC Tokyo win	44%	56%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	40%	46%	−6
Both teams to score	46%	47%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	20%	26%	−6
Tokyo Verdy or draw	56%	44%	+12
Tokyo Verdy clean sheet	27%	–	–
FC Tokyo clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.2 13.1 8.6 3.8 1 9.8 13.0 8.4 3.7 2 4.9 6.4 4.2 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tokyo Verdy down, FC Tokyo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,662 J1 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tokyo Verdy at home: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC Tokyo away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Tokyo Verdy, 1.31 for FC Tokyo. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~FCT 2–1 TOK · TOK 0–0 FCT · FCT 1–0 TOK · TOK 2–2 FCT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 29 Aug

TOKYO VERDY

LLDDLL0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–2

FC TOKYO

WDWWWW3–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kashiwa Reysol	9	+7	21
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	9	+16	20
3	Machida Zelvia	9	+12	20
4	FC Tokyo	9	+9	20
5	Vissel Kobe	9	+5	19
6	Kashima	9	+3	16
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	9	+4	15
8	Kawasaki Frontale	9	+3	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	9	0	13
10	Shimizu S-pulse	9	−1	13
11	Urawa	9	−5	12
12	Cerezo Osaka	9	−5	12
13	Mito Hollyhock	9	−1	9
14	V-varen Nagasaki	9	−5	9
15	Nagoya Grampus	9	−6	9
16	Kyoto Sanga	9	−5	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	9	−2	7
18	Gamba Osaka	9	−8	6
19	JEF United Chiba	9	−11	5
20	Tokyo Verdy	9	−10	4