

Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia
Shimizu S-pulse
Machida ZelviaJ1 League · WED 21 OCT · IAI Stadium Nihondaira
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Machida Zelvia win at 45%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Machida Zelvia 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 28–27–45
- 1′KICK-OFF Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia
- 17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Yuki Honda · Shimizu S-pulse
- 32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Kai Matsuzaki · Shimizu S-pulse
- 34′We said Machida Zelvia at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 7–19–75
- 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Shimizu S-pulse 0–1 Machida Zelvia
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Machida Zelvia win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
- 35′Machida Zelvia ahead on 35′ through Neta Lavi. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–19–75
- 35′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 7–19–75
- 45′SECOND HALF Shimizu S-pulse 0–1 Machida Zelvia
- 48′HALF-TIME Shimizu S-pulse 0–1 Machida Zelvia
- 49′We said Machida Zelvia at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
- 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Shimizu S-pulse 0–2 Machida Zelvia
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Machida Zelvia win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
- 51′Koki Ogawa scores for Machida Zelvia on 50′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–96
- 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Kenta Inoue · Off: Kei Koizumi
- 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Tomoya Fujii · Off: Capixaba
- 63′We said Machida Zelvia at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
- 63′62′: Takuma Nishimura on the scoresheet for Machida Zelvia, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
- 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Shimizu S-pulse 0–3 Machida Zelvia
- 63′🟥 RED CARD · 63' Shimizu S-pulse
- 64′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
- 64′Shimizu S-pulse are down to ten from 63′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–3 · 0–0–100
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Ryo Germain · Off: Oh Se-hun
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Machida Zelvia · On: Ryohei Shirasaki · Off: Neta Lavi
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Machida Zelvia · On: Mitchell Duke · Off: Yuki Soma
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Machida Zelvia · On: Hotaka Nakamura · Off: Henry Heroki Mochizuki
- 76′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
- 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Shimizu S-pulse 0–4 Machida Zelvia
- 78′Machida Zelvia ahead on 77′ through Takuma Nishimura. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Yutaka Yoshida · Off: Hidehiro Sugai
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Kazuki Kozuka · Off: Masaki Yumiba
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Machida Zelvia · On: Hokuto Shimoda · Off: Hiroyuki Mae
- 82′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 0–5 · 0–0–100
- 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Shimizu S-pulse 0–5 Machida Zelvia
- 83′Takuma Nishimura scores for Machida Zelvia on 82′ — 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Machida Zelvia · On: Futa Tokumura · Off: Takuma Nishimura
- 88′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 0–6 · 0–0–100
- 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Shimizu S-pulse 0–6 Machida Zelvia
- 89′GOAL DISALLOWED · 89' Machida Zelvia
- FTFULL TIME Shimizu S-pulse 0–5 Machida Zelvia
- FTShimizu S-pulse 0–5 Machida Zelvia · Machida Zelvia win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Machida Zelvia are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Shimizu S-pulse 28%, draw 27%, Machida Zelvia 45%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Shimizu S-pulse win28%
Machida Zelvia win45%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00
RoundMatchday 11
VenueIAI Stadium Nihondaira
RefereeYuzo Sutani
Match timeline
All events
Shimizu S-pulseMIN
Machida ZelviaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Shimizu S-pulse
4-1-4-1
Machida Zelvia
3-4-2-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Shimizu S-pulse
Machida Zelvia
Last match: 17 Oct · J1 League
Last match: 18 Oct · J1 League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Shimizu S-pulse
4-1-4-1
16 T. Umeda
24 H. Sugai
4 S. Hasukawa
15 Y. Honda
25 Mateus Brunetti
17 M. Yumiba
21 K. Matsuzaki
37 K. Koizumi
47 Y. Shimamoto
7 Capixaba
9 Oh Se-Hun
Coach · T. Yoshida
Substitutes
13 · R. Germain
50 · T. Fujii
8 · K. Inoue
19 · K. Kinoshita
81 · K. Kozuka
18 · T. Hirato
1 · Y. Oki
14 · Park Seung-Wook
28 · Y. Yoshida
Machida Zelvia
3-4-2-1
1 K. Tani
3 G. Shōji
50 D. Okamura
2 T. Ouwejan
6 H. Mochizuki
16 H. Mae
31 N. Lavi
33 T. Akimoto
20 T. Nishimura
7 Y. Soma
9 Koki Ogawa
Coach · G. Kuroda
Substitutes
5 · I. Drešević
15 · M. Duke
13 · T. Morita
88 · H. Nakamura
8 · K. Sento
18 · H. Shimoda
23 · R. Shirasaki
34 · Futa Tokumura
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Shimizu S-pulse
4-1-4-1
16 T. Umeda
24 H. Sugai
4 S. Hasukawa
15 Y. Honda
25 Mateus Brunetti
17 M. Yumiba
21 K. Matsuzaki
37 K. Koizumi
47 Y. Shimamoto
7 Capixaba
9 Oh Se-Hun
Coach · T. Yoshida
Substitutes
13 · R. Germain
50 · T. Fujii
8 · K. Inoue
19 · K. Kinoshita
81 · K. Kozuka
18 · T. Hirato
1 · Y. Oki
14 · Park Seung-Wook
28 · Y. Yoshida
Machida Zelvia
3-4-2-1
1 K. Tani
3 G. Shōji
50 D. Okamura
2 T. Ouwejan
6 H. Mochizuki
16 H. Mae
31 N. Lavi
33 T. Akimoto
20 T. Nishimura
7 Y. Soma
9 Koki Ogawa
Coach · G. Kuroda
Substitutes
5 · I. Drešević
15 · M. Duke
13 · T. Morita
88 · H. Nakamura
8 · K. Sento
18 · H. Shimoda
23 · R. Shirasaki
34 · Futa Tokumura
We make Machida Zelvia a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse win | 28% | 24% | +4 |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | −2 |
| Machida Zelvia win | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 38% | +5 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 44% | +4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 64% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 19% | +3 |
| Shimizu S-pulse or draw | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Shimizu S-pulse clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
| Machida Zelvia clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2022Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept
SHIMIZU S-PULSE
MACHIDA ZELVIA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 10 | +19 | 23 |
| 2 | Machida Zelvia | 10 | +15 | 23 |
| 3 | FC Tokyo | 10 | +13 | 23 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 10 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 | Kashiwa Reysol | 10 | +5 | 21 |
| 6 | Kashima | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 10 | +5 | 16 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 10 | +4 | 16 |
| 9 | Urawa | 10 | −4 | 15 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-pulse | 10 | −1 | 14 |
| 11 | Fagiano Okayama | 10 | −3 | 13 |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 10 | −4 | 12 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 10 | −7 | 12 |
| 14 | Mito Hollyhock | 10 | −2 | 9 |
| 15 | V-varen Nagasaki | 10 | −7 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 10 | −8 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 10 | −5 | 7 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 10 | −8 | 7 |
| 19 | JEF United Chiba | 10 | −11 | 6 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 10 | −14 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FC Tokyo
Vissel Kobe
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashima
Kawasaki Frontale
Yokohama F. Marinos
Urawa
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
Kyoto Sanga
Avispa Fukuoka
Gamba Osaka
JEF United Chiba
Tokyo Verdy