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Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia

Shimizu S-pulse
0–5Full time
Machida Zelvia

J1 League · WED 21 OCT · IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30
Shimizu S-pulse 0–5 Machida Zelvia MACHIDA ZELVIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Machida Zelvia win45%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.457
The market’s Brier score0.430

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Machida Zelvia win at 45%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Machida Zelvia 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 28–27–45
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia
  4. 17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Yuki Honda · Shimizu S-pulse
  5. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Kai Matsuzaki · Shimizu S-pulse
  6. 34′We said Machida Zelvia at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 7–19–75
  7. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Shimizu S-pulse 0–1 Machida Zelvia
  8. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Machida Zelvia win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
  9. 35′Machida Zelvia ahead on 35′ through Neta Lavi. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–19–75
  10. 35′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 7–19–75
  11. 45′SECOND HALF Shimizu S-pulse 0–1 Machida Zelvia
  12. 48′HALF-TIME Shimizu S-pulse 0–1 Machida Zelvia
  13. 49′We said Machida Zelvia at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  14. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Shimizu S-pulse 0–2 Machida Zelvia
  15. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Machida Zelvia win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
  16. 51′Koki Ogawa scores for Machida Zelvia on 50′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–96
  17. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Kenta Inoue · Off: Kei Koizumi
  18. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Tomoya Fujii · Off: Capixaba
  19. 63′We said Machida Zelvia at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  20. 63′62′: Takuma Nishimura on the scoresheet for Machida Zelvia, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  21. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Shimizu S-pulse 0–3 Machida Zelvia
  22. 63′🟥 RED CARD · 63' Shimizu S-pulse
  23. 64′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  24. 64′Shimizu S-pulse are down to ten from 63′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  25. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Ryo Germain · Off: Oh Se-hun
  26. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Machida Zelvia · On: Ryohei Shirasaki · Off: Neta Lavi
  27. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Machida Zelvia · On: Mitchell Duke · Off: Yuki Soma
  28. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Machida Zelvia · On: Hotaka Nakamura · Off: Henry Heroki Mochizuki
  29. 76′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  30. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Shimizu S-pulse 0–4 Machida Zelvia
  31. 78′Machida Zelvia ahead on 77′ through Takuma Nishimura. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  32. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Yutaka Yoshida · Off: Hidehiro Sugai
  33. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Kazuki Kozuka · Off: Masaki Yumiba
  34. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Machida Zelvia · On: Hokuto Shimoda · Off: Hiroyuki Mae
  35. 82′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 0–5 · 0–0–100
  36. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Shimizu S-pulse 0–5 Machida Zelvia
  37. 83′Takuma Nishimura scores for Machida Zelvia on 82′ — 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
  38. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Machida Zelvia · On: Futa Tokumura · Off: Takuma Nishimura
  39. 88′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 0–6 · 0–0–100
  40. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Shimizu S-pulse 0–6 Machida Zelvia
  41. 89′GOAL DISALLOWED · 89' Machida Zelvia
  42. FTFULL TIME Shimizu S-pulse 0–5 Machida Zelvia
  43. FTShimizu S-pulse 0–5 Machida Zelvia · Machida Zelvia win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Machida Zelvia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shimizu S-pulse 28%, draw 27%, Machida Zelvia 45%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Shimizu S-pulse v Machida ZelviaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Shimizu S-pulse win28%
Draw27%
Machida Zelvia win45%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueIAI Stadium Nihondaira

RefereeYuzo Sutani

Line-ups

Shimizu S-pulse

4-1-4-1

Machida Zelvia

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shimizu S-pulse

Machida Zelvia

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · J1 League

Last match: 18 Oct · J1 League

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Machida Zelvia10+1523
10Shimizu S-pulse10−114

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Shimizu S-pulse

4-1-4-1

16 T. Umeda

24 H. Sugai

4 S. Hasukawa

15 Y. Honda

25 Mateus Brunetti

17 M. Yumiba

21 K. Matsuzaki

37 K. Koizumi

47 Y. Shimamoto

7 Capixaba

9 Oh Se-Hun

Coach · T. Yoshida

Substitutes

13 · R. Germain

50 · T. Fujii

8 · K. Inoue

19 · K. Kinoshita

81 · K. Kozuka

18 · T. Hirato

1 · Y. Oki

14 · Park Seung-Wook

28 · Y. Yoshida

Machida Zelvia

3-4-2-1

1 K. Tani

3 G. Shōji

50 D. Okamura

2 T. Ouwejan

6 H. Mochizuki

16 H. Mae

31 N. Lavi

33 T. Akimoto

20 T. Nishimura

7 Y. Soma

9 Koki Ogawa

Coach · G. Kuroda

Substitutes

5 · I. Drešević

15 · M. Duke

13 · T. Morita

88 · H. Nakamura

8 · K. Sento

18 · H. Shimoda

23 · R. Shirasaki

34 · Futa Tokumura

Our number · machida zelvia winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off
45% The market47%
Us45%
Market47%

We make Machida Zelvia a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia1.03 – 1.38
Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 14 v 2310 v 2
The market · Machida Zelvia win47% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 10:38
Our probability · Machida Zelvia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Shimizu S-pulse win28%24%+4
Draw27%29%−2
Machida Zelvia win45%47%−2
Over 2.5 goals43%38%+5
Both teams to score48%44%+4
Over 1.5 goals69%64%+5
Over 3.5 goals22%19%+3
Shimizu S-pulse or draw55%53%+2
Shimizu S-pulse clean sheet25%––
Machida Zelvia clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%
0123450 9.3 12.4 8.6 4.0 1 9.2 12.7 8.7 4.0 2 4.8 6.5 4.4 2.1 3 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Shimizu S-pulse down, Machida Zelvia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting3.75
Over 2.54 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsMAC 3–0 SHI · SHI 2–2 MAC · SHI 3–2 MAC · MAC 2–1 SHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept

SHIMIZU S-PULSE

DLWWWD1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

MACHIDA ZELVIA

WWDLWW2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sanfrecce Hiroshima10+1923
2Machida Zelvia10+1523
3FC Tokyo10+1323
4Vissel Kobe10+822
5Kashiwa Reysol10+521
6Kashima10+519
7Kawasaki Frontale10+516
8Yokohama F. Marinos10+416
9Urawa10−415
10Shimizu S-pulse10−114
11Fagiano Okayama10−313
12Nagoya Grampus10−412
13Cerezo Osaka10−712
14Mito Hollyhock10−29
15V-varen Nagasaki10−79
16Kyoto Sanga10−88
17Avispa Fukuoka10−57
18Gamba Osaka10−87
19JEF United Chiba10−116
20Tokyo Verdy10−144

The competition's standings before kick-off.