

Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-pulse
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League · SAT 24 OCT · Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Sanfrecce Hiroshima win at 61%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 61% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–23–17
- 1′KICK-OFF Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-pulse
- 18′SUBSTITUTION · 17' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Hayao Kawabe · Off: Takumu Kawamura
- 28′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Kei Koizumi · Off: Masaki Yumiba
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
- 38′We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–34–17
- 40′We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–13–3
- 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Shimizu S-pulse
- 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 61% at kick-off, 84% now
- 41′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 84–13–3
- 42′Taishi Matsumoto scores for Sanfrecce Hiroshima on 41′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–13–3
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Takuma Asano · Off: Mutsuki Kato
- 45′SECOND HALF Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Shimizu S-pulse
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Tomoya Fujii · Off: Capixaba
- 49′We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
- 49′SUBSTITUTION · 49' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Oh Se-hun · Off: Kosuke Kinoshita
- 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0 Shimizu S-pulse
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 61% at kick-off, 97% now
- 50′SUBSTITUTION · 49' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Kazuki Kozuka · Off: Taiki Hirato
- 51′HALF-TIME Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Shimizu S-pulse
- 52′50′: Takuma Asano on the scoresheet for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
- 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Ryo Germain · Shimizu S-pulse
- 69′We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 69′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–0 Shimizu S-pulse
- 70′Sanfrecce Hiroshima ahead on 69′ through Akito Suzuki. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Kusini Yengi · Off: Akito Suzuki
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Shunki Higashi · Off: Daiki Suga
- 75′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4–0 Shimizu S-pulse
- 77′An own goal by Shimizu S-pulse's Sodai Hasukawa on 75′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Shimon Kobayashi · Off: Shun Ayukawa
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Rinsei Ohata · Off: Yudai Shimamoto
- 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Hayato Araki · Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- FTFULL TIME Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4–0 Shimizu S-pulse
- FTSanfrecce Hiroshima 4–0 Shimizu S-pulse · Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 61%, draw 23%, Shimizu S-pulse 17%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 47%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win61%
Shimizu S-pulse win17%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00
RoundMatchday 12
VenueEdion Peace Wing Hiroshima
Match timeline
All events
Sanfrecce HiroshimaMIN
Shimizu S-pulseEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3-4-2-1
Shimizu S-pulse
4-3-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shimizu S-pulse
Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League
Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3-4-2-1
1 K. Osako
15 S. Nakano
4 H. Araki
37 Kim Ju-Sung
5 N. Arai
8 T. Kawamura
14 T. Matsumoto
18 D. Suga
11 M. Kato
23 S. Ayukawa
10 A. Suzuki
Coach · Bartosch Gaul
Substitutes
99 · I. Ouchi
9 · K. Yengi
29 · T. Asano
7 · S. Higashi
6 · H. Kawabe
45 · S. Kobayashi
32 · S. Koshimichi
35 · Y. Nakajima
46 · R. Noguchi
Shimizu S-pulse
4-3-3
16 T. Umeda
24 H. Sugai
14 Park Seung-Wook
4 S. Hasukawa
25 Mateus Brunetti
47 Y. Shimamoto
17 M. Yumiba
18 T. Hirato
13 R. Germain
19 K. Kinoshita
7 Capixaba
Coach · T. Yoshida
Substitutes
39 · Haruto Hidaka
37 · K. Koizumi
81 · K. Kozuka
97 · R. Ohata
9 · Oh Se-Hun
1 · Y. Oki
41 · Keigo Suzuki
28 · Y. Yoshida
50 · T. Fujii
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3-4-2-1
1 K. Osako
15 S. Nakano
4 H. Araki
37 Kim Ju-Sung
5 N. Arai
8 T. Kawamura
14 T. Matsumoto
18 D. Suga
11 M. Kato
23 S. Ayukawa
10 A. Suzuki
Coach · Bartosch Gaul
Substitutes
99 · I. Ouchi
9 · K. Yengi
29 · T. Asano
7 · S. Higashi
6 · H. Kawabe
45 · S. Kobayashi
32 · S. Koshimichi
35 · Y. Nakajima
46 · R. Noguchi
Shimizu S-pulse
4-3-3
16 T. Umeda
24 H. Sugai
14 Park Seung-Wook
4 S. Hasukawa
25 Mateus Brunetti
47 Y. Shimamoto
17 M. Yumiba
18 T. Hirato
13 R. Germain
19 K. Kinoshita
7 Capixaba
Coach · T. Yoshida
Substitutes
39 · Haruto Hidaka
37 · K. Koizumi
81 · K. Kozuka
97 · R. Ohata
9 · Oh Se-Hun
1 · Y. Oki
41 · Keigo Suzuki
28 · Y. Yoshida
50 · T. Fujii
We make Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 60%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 61% | 67% | −6 |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | +3 |
| Shimizu S-pulse win | 17% | 13% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 59% | −10 |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | −6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 79% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 39% | −11 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw | 83% | 87% | −4 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet | 44% | – | – |
| Shimizu S-pulse clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2022Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept
SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA
SHIMIZU S-PULSE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 11 | +20 | 26 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | +15 | 23 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 11 | +7 | 22 |
| 5 | Kashiwa Reysol | 11 | +5 | 22 |
| 6 | Kashima | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 11 | +6 | 19 |
| 8 | Urawa | 11 | −3 | 18 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 11 | −1 | 16 |
| 11 | Shimizu S-pulse | 11 | −6 | 14 |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 11 | −4 | 13 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 11 | −7 | 13 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | −3 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 11 | −7 | 10 |
| 16 | Mito Hollyhock | 11 | −4 | 9 |
| 17 | Kyoto Sanga | 11 | −8 | 9 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 11 | −6 | 7 |
| 19 | JEF United Chiba | 11 | −12 | 6 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 11 | −14 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Machida Zelvia
FC Tokyo
Vissel Kobe
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashima
Kawasaki Frontale
Urawa
Yokohama F. Marinos
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka
Mito Hollyhock
Kyoto Sanga
Avispa Fukuoka
JEF United Chiba
Tokyo Verdy