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Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-pulse

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4–0Full time
Shimizu S-pulse

J1 League · SAT 24 OCT · Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 08:31
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4–0 Shimizu S-pulse SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima win61%
The market said67%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.234
The market’s Brier score0.162

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sanfrecce Hiroshima win at 61%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 61% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–23–17
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-pulse
  4. 18′SUBSTITUTION · 17' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Hayao Kawabe · Off: Takumu Kawamura
  5. 28′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Kei Koizumi · Off: Masaki Yumiba
  6. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
  7. 38′We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–34–17
  8. 40′We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–13–3
  9. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Shimizu S-pulse
  10. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 61% at kick-off, 84% now
  11. 41′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 84–13–3
  12. 42′Taishi Matsumoto scores for Sanfrecce Hiroshima on 41′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–13–3
  13. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Takuma Asano · Off: Mutsuki Kato
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Shimizu S-pulse
  15. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Tomoya Fujii · Off: Capixaba
  16. 49′We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
  17. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 49' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Oh Se-hun · Off: Kosuke Kinoshita
  18. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0 Shimizu S-pulse
  19. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 61% at kick-off, 97% now
  20. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 49' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Kazuki Kozuka · Off: Taiki Hirato
  21. 51′HALF-TIME Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Shimizu S-pulse
  22. 52′50′: Takuma Asano on the scoresheet for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  23. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Ryo Germain · Shimizu S-pulse
  24. 69′We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  25. 69′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  26. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–0 Shimizu S-pulse
  27. 70′Sanfrecce Hiroshima ahead on 69′ through Akito Suzuki. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  28. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Kusini Yengi · Off: Akito Suzuki
  29. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Shunki Higashi · Off: Daiki Suga
  30. 75′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  31. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4–0 Shimizu S-pulse
  32. 77′An own goal by Shimizu S-pulse's Sodai Hasukawa on 75′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  33. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: Shimon Kobayashi · Off: Shun Ayukawa
  34. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Rinsei Ohata · Off: Yudai Shimamoto
  35. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Hayato Araki · Sanfrecce Hiroshima
  36. FTFULL TIME Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4–0 Shimizu S-pulse
  37. FTSanfrecce Hiroshima 4–0 Shimizu S-pulse · Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sanfrecce Hiroshima are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 61%, draw 23%, Shimizu S-pulse 17%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-pulseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sanfrecce Hiroshima win61%
Draw23%
Shimizu S-pulse win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueEdion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Line-ups

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

3-4-2-1

Shimizu S-pulse

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Shimizu S-pulse

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

4Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Sanfrecce Hiroshima11+1523
11Shimizu S-pulse11−614

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

3-4-2-1

1 K. Osako

15 S. Nakano

4 H. Araki

37 Kim Ju-Sung

5 N. Arai

8 T. Kawamura

14 T. Matsumoto

18 D. Suga

11 M. Kato

23 S. Ayukawa

10 A. Suzuki

Coach · Bartosch Gaul

Substitutes

99 · I. Ouchi

9 · K. Yengi

29 · T. Asano

7 · S. Higashi

6 · H. Kawabe

45 · S. Kobayashi

32 · S. Koshimichi

35 · Y. Nakajima

46 · R. Noguchi

Shimizu S-pulse

4-3-3

16 T. Umeda

24 H. Sugai

14 Park Seung-Wook

4 S. Hasukawa

25 Mateus Brunetti

47 Y. Shimamoto

17 M. Yumiba

18 T. Hirato

13 R. Germain

19 K. Kinoshita

7 Capixaba

Coach · T. Yoshida

Substitutes

39 · Haruto Hidaka

37 · K. Koizumi

81 · K. Kozuka

97 · R. Ohata

9 · Oh Se-Hun

1 · Y. Oki

41 · Keigo Suzuki

28 · Y. Yoshida

50 · T. Fujii

Our number · sanfrecce hiroshima winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off
61% The market67%
Us61%
Market67%

We make Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-pulse1.82 – 0.83
Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 SeptW4 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 23 v 143 v 11
The market · Sanfrecce Hiroshima win67% · ours 61%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 05:40
Our probability · Sanfrecce Hiroshima win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win61%67%−6
Draw23%20%+3
Shimizu S-pulse win17%13%+4
Over 2.5 goals49%59%−10
Both teams to score47%53%−6
Over 1.5 goals74%79%−5
Over 3.5 goals28%39%−11
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw83%87%−4
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet44%––
Shimizu S-pulse clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%
0123450 7.4 5.8 2.4 1 12.8 10.7 4.4 2 11.7 9.6 4.0 3 7.1 5.8 2.4 4 3.3 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sanfrecce Hiroshima down, Shimizu S-pulse across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.56
Over 2.55 of 9
Both scored6 of 9
Last meetingsSAN 1–1 SHI · SHI 3–1 SAN · SAN 0–0 SHI · SAN 3–0 SHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept

SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA

LWWWWL2–3 · 6–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–4

SHIMIZU S-PULSE

LWWWDL1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–5

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Machida Zelvia11+2026
2FC Tokyo11+1324
3Sanfrecce Hiroshima11+1523
4Vissel Kobe11+722
5Kashiwa Reysol11+522
6Kashima11+520
7Kawasaki Frontale11+619
8Urawa11−318
9Yokohama F. Marinos11+417
10Fagiano Okayama11−116
11Shimizu S-pulse11−614
12Nagoya Grampus11−413
13Cerezo Osaka11−713
14V-varen Nagasaki11−312
15Gamba Osaka11−710
16Mito Hollyhock11−49
17Kyoto Sanga11−89
18Avispa Fukuoka11−67
19JEF United Chiba11−126
20Tokyo Verdy11−145

The competition's standings before kick-off.