Nagoya Grampus v Yokohama F. Marinos prediction · J1 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nagoya GrampusDrawYokohama F. Marinos

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Yokohama F. Marinos 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Yokohama F. Marinos just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Nagoya Grampus 36%, draw 25%, Yokohama F. Marinos 38%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Nagoya Grampus v Yokohama F. MarinosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Nagoya Grampus win36%

Draw25%

Yokohama F. Marinos win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueToyota Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nagoya Grampus

Yokohama F. Marinos

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	11	+4	17
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	−4	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yokohama f. marinos winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market34%

Us38%

~~Market~~34%

We make Yokohama F. Marinos a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nagoya Grampus v Yokohama F. Marinos~~1.40 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 17~~12 v 9

~~The market · Yokohama F. Marinos win~~34% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yokohama F. Marinos win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nagoya Grampus win	36%	39%	−3
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Yokohama F. Marinos win	38%	34%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	54%	53%	+1
Both teams to score	58%	57%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Nagoya Grampus or draw	62%	66%	−4
Nagoya Grampus clean sheet	24%	–	–
Yokohama F. Marinos clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.1 8.2 6.1 3.0 1 7.9 11.8 8.4 4.1 2 5.7 8.1 5.9 2.9 3 2.7 3.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nagoya Grampus down, Yokohama F. Marinos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,687 J1 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nagoya Grampus at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Yokohama F. Marinos away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Nagoya Grampus, 1.45 for Yokohama F. Marinos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~YOK 3–0 NAG · NAG 2–0 YOK · YOK 0–2 NAG · NAG 1–2 YOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept

NAGOYA GRAMPUS

LLLWWD1–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

YOKOHAMA F. MARINOS

WDWDDD2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Machida Zelvia	12	+20	27
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	+19	26
3	Kashiwa Reysol	12	+6	25
4	FC Tokyo	11	+13	24
5	Vissel Kobe	12	+7	23
6	Kashima	12	+4	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	+6	19
8	Urawa	11	−3	18
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	11	+4	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	−1	16
11	Shimizu S-pulse	12	−10	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	−4	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	−7	13
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	−3	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	−7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	−8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	11	−4	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	−12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	−8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	11	−12	6