Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka prediction · J1 League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30

Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Cerezo Osaka NAGOYA GRAMPUS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Nagoya Grampus win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.835

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.813

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nagoya Grampus win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nagoya Grampus 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–35
1′KICK-OFF Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka
3′We said Nagoya Grampus at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–19–15
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Nagoya Grampus 1–0 Cerezo Osaka
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Nagoya Grampus win: 40% at kick-off, 65% now
4′A goal for Nagoya Grampus on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–19–15
28′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Dion Cools · Cerezo Osaka
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 68–21–11
39′We said Nagoya Grampus at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Nagoya Grampus win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
41′We said Nagoya Grampus at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Nagoya Grampus 2–0 Cerezo Osaka
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Nagoya Grampus win: 40% at kick-off, 91% now
44′GOAL DISALLOWED · 44' Nagoya Grampus
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Nagoya Grampus win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
45′SECOND HALF Nagoya Grampus 1–0 Cerezo Osaka
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Yota Sato · Nagoya Grampus
48′HALF-TIME Nagoya Grampus 1–0 Cerezo Osaka
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Shinji Kagawa · Cerezo Osaka
58′We said Nagoya Grampus at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Nagoya Grampus · On: Hidemasa Koda · Off: Tsukasa Morishima
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Nagoya Grampus · On: Tomoya Koyamatsu · Off: Katsuhiro Nakayama
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Nagoya Grampus · On: Yuya Yamagishi · Off: Kensuke Nagai
62′We said Nagoya Grampus at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–50–24
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Cerezo Osaka
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Nagoya Grampus win: 40% at kick-off, 26% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Nagoya Grampus win 76%)
63′62′: Pablo Sabbag on the scoresheet for Cerezo Osaka, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 25–51–23
65′We said Nagoya Grampus at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–53–22
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Lucas Fernandes · Cerezo Osaka
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Cerezo Osaka · On: Satoki Uejo · Off: Yota Komi
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Nagoya Grampus · On: Masahito Ono · Off: Takuya Uchida
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Nagoya Grampus win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
73′We said Nagoya Grampus at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–18
79′We said Nagoya Grampus at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–73–13
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Cerezo Osaka · On: Solomon Sakuragawa · Off: Pablo Sabbag
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Nagoya Grampus win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
85′We said Nagoya Grampus at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–85–7
91′We said Nagoya Grampus at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Cerezo Osaka · On: Reiya Sakata · Off: Lucas Fernandes
95′1–1 at the end. Our 40% on Nagoya Grampus misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Hayato Okuda · Cerezo Osaka
FTFULL TIME Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Cerezo Osaka
FTNagoya Grampus 1–1 Cerezo Osaka · Nagoya Grampus win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nagoya Grampus are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nagoya Grampus 40%, draw 25%, Cerezo Osaka 35%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo OsakaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Nagoya Grampus win40%

Draw25%

Cerezo Osaka win35%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueToyota Stadium

RefereeRyo Tanimoto

Line-ups

Nagoya Grampus

3-4-2-1

Cerezo Osaka

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nagoya Grampus

Cerezo Osaka

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · J1 League

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	−4	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	−7	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nagoya Grampus

3-4-2-1

1 D. Schmidt

70 T. Hara

3 Y. Sato

31 T. Takamine

7 R. Izumi

15 S. Inagaki

14 T. Morishima

27 K. Nakayama

17 T. Uchida

22 Y. Kimura

18 K. Nagai

Coach · Michael Petrovic

Substitutes

33 · T. Kikuchi

19 · H. Koda

58 · T. Koyamatsu

2 · Y. Nogami

41 · M. Ono

35 · A. Pisano

30 · S. Sugiura

55 · S. Tokumoto

11 · Y. Yamagishi

Cerezo Osaka

3-4-2-1

23 Kosuke Nakamura

27 Dion-Johan Cools

97 T. Takahashi

4 R. Inoue

16 H. Okuda

10 S. Tanaka

8 S. Kagawa

15 Javi Hernández

77 Lucas Fernandes

41 Y. Komi

19 P. Sabbag

Coach · Pablo Machín

Substitutes

9 · S. Sakuragawa

7 · S. Uejo

14 · Y. Yokoyama

17 · R. Sakata

28 · K. Okazawa

6 · K. Noborizato

2 · T. Nakamura

45 · K. Nagasoe

31 · K. Abe

Our number · nagoya grampus winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make Nagoya Grampus a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka~~1.44 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~12 v 13

~~The market · Nagoya Grampus win~~41% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nagoya Grampus win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nagoya Grampus win	40%	41%	−1
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Cerezo Osaka win	35%	33%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	57%	−5
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	36%	−6
Nagoya Grampus or draw	65%	67%	−2
Nagoya Grampus clean sheet	27%	–	–
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.4 8.2 5.5 2.5 1 8.9 12.0 7.9 3.5 2 6.5 8.5 5.7 2.5 3 3.1 4.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nagoya Grampus down, Cerezo Osaka across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,672 J1 League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nagoya Grampus at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cerezo Osaka away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Nagoya Grampus, 1.33 for Cerezo Osaka. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 10:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CER 6–1 NAG · NAG 3–0 CER · NAG 2–1 CER · CER 1–1 NAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept

NAGOYA GRAMPUS

LLLLWW0–3 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1

CEREZO OSAKA

WDLDDL2–0 · 0–0 · 1–6 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	+19	23
2	Machida Zelvia	10	+15	23
3	FC Tokyo	10	+13	23
4	Vissel Kobe	10	+8	22
5	Kashiwa Reysol	10	+5	21
6	Kashima	10	+5	19
7	Kawasaki Frontale	10	+5	16
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	10	+4	16
9	Urawa	10	−4	15
10	Shimizu S-pulse	10	−1	14
11	Fagiano Okayama	10	−3	13
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	−4	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	−7	12
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	−2	9
15	V-varen Nagasaki	10	−7	9
16	Kyoto Sanga	10	−8	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	10	−5	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	−8	7
19	JEF United Chiba	10	−11	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	−14	4