Mito Hollyhock v Urawa

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Urawa win at 43%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Urawa was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 31–26–43
3. 1′KICK-OFF Mito Hollyhock v Urawa
4. 3′Urawa find the net on 2′. 0–0 · 31–27–43
5. 10′🟥 RED CARD · 10' Mito Hollyhock
6. 12′A red card for Mito Hollyhock on 10′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 30–28–41
7. 15′We published Urawa at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 11–19–70
8. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Mito Hollyhock 0–1 Urawa
9. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Urawa win: 43% at kick-off, 70% now
10. 15′GOAL DISALLOWED · 15' Urawa
11. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Urawa win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
12. 34′Urawa have had 8 attempts to 0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 28–35–37
13. 43′13 shots for Urawa, 0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 27–39–35
14. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Urawa win 34%)
15. 45′SECOND HALF Mito Hollyhock 0–0 Urawa
16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Mito Hollyhock · On: Malick Fofana · Off: Kaito Taniguchi
17. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Urawa win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
18. 48′17 shots for Urawa, 0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 26–41–33
19. 49′HALF-TIME Mito Hollyhock 0–0 Urawa
20. 53′We said Urawa at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 24–44–31
21. 55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 24–46–30
22. 57′We said Urawa at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 23–47–29
23. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Urawa · On: Yoichi Naganuma · Off: Kotaro Hayashi
24. 64′Urawa have had 20 attempts to 0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 20–54–26
25. 67′We said Urawa at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 19–57–24
26. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Urawa win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
27. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Mito Hollyhock · On: Kiichi Yamazaki · Off: Hayata Yamamoto
28. 73′We published Urawa at 43%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–1 · 2–14–84
29. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Mito Hollyhock 0–1 Urawa
30. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Urawa win: 43% at kick-off, 84% now
31. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Urawa win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
32. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Urawa · On: Jumpei Hayakawa · Off: Miki Yamane
33. 74′We said Urawa at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 15–66–19 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
34. 74′We published Urawa at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
35. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Urawa · On: Renji Hidano · Off: Hiiro Komori
36. 75′GOAL DISALLOWED · 75' Urawa
37. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Urawa win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
38. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Urawa win 18%)
39. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Jakub Słowik · Mito Hollyhock
40. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Mito Hollyhock · On: Keisuke Tada · Off: Ryo Nemoto
41. 79′We said Urawa at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 11–74–14
42. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Urawa win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
43. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Kaito Yasui · Urawa
44. 84′We said Urawa at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–85–9
45. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Urawa · On: Ado Onaiwu · Off: Kaito Yasui
46. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Urawa · On: Shuta Sasa · Off: Matheus Sávio
47. 85′Urawa have had 24 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 6–86–8
48. 91′We said Urawa at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
49. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Mito Hollyhock · On: Yuri Tamura · Off: Takumi Mase
50. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Mito Hollyhock · On: Yuto Yamashita · Off: Chihiro Kato
51. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Urawa win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
52. 93′We published Urawa at 43%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–1 · 0–2–98
53. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Mito Hollyhock 0–1 Urawa
54. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Urawa win: 43% at kick-off, 98% now
55. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Urawa win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
56. 94′Shuta Sasa scores for Urawa on 90′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–1–99
57. 95′Full time, 0–1. We called Urawa at 43% — that one lands. 0–1 · 0–0–100
58. FTFULL TIME Mito Hollyhock 0–1 Urawa
59. FTMito Hollyhock 0–1 Urawa · Urawa win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.