Mito Hollyhock v Shimizu S-pulse prediction · J1 League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 09:34

Mito Hollyhock 1–2 Shimizu S-pulse MITO HOLLYHOCK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mito Hollyhock win~~38%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.651

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.634

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mito Hollyhock win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mito Hollyhock 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Mito Hollyhock v Shimizu S-pulse
2′Little has changed for our model: Mito Hollyhock 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–34
19′SUBSTITUTION · 20' Mito Hollyhock · On: Kotaro Uchino · Off: Yoshiki Torikai Corrected
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Oh Se-hun · Shimizu S-pulse
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Kotaro Uchino · Mito Hollyhock
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Mito Hollyhock win 32%)
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Mito Hollyhock win 32%)
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Mito Hollyhock win 32%)
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Mito Hollyhock win 32%)
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Yudai Shimamoto · Off: Koya Kitagawa Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Ryo Germain · Off: Oh Se-hun Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Tomoya Fujii · Off: Kenta Inoue Corrected
45′SECOND HALF Mito Hollyhock 0–0 Shimizu S-pulse
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Mito Hollyhock · On: Yu Funabashi · Off: Hugo Leonardo Corrected
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Mito Hollyhock 1–0 Shimizu S-pulse
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Mito Hollyhock 1–0 Shimizu S-pulse · Chihiro Kato
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Mito Hollyhock · On: Ryo Nemoto · Off: Kotaro Uchino Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Mito Hollyhock · On: Keisuke Tada · Off: Jin Okumura Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Shimizu S-pulse · On: Kosuke Kinoshita · Off: Kai Matsuzaki Corrected
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Takumi Mase · Mito Hollyhock
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Mito Hollyhock 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse · Chihiro Kato
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Mito Hollyhock 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse · Tomoya Fujii
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Mito Hollyhock 2–1 Shimizu S-pulse · Tomoya Fujii
80′⚽ GOAL · 81' Mito Hollyhock 2–1 Shimizu S-pulse · Keisuke Tada
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Mito Hollyhock 2–1 Shimizu S-pulse · Keisuke Tada
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Mito Hollyhock 2–1 Shimizu S-pulse · Keisuke Tada
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Mito Hollyhock 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse · Keisuke Tada (assist Takumi Mase)
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Mito Hollyhock · On: Hayata Yamamoto · Off: Chihiro Kato Corrected
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Mito Hollyhock 1–2 Shimizu S-pulse · Tomoya Fujii
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Mito Hollyhock 1–2 Shimizu S-pulse · Hidehiro Sugai
FTFULL TIME Mito Hollyhock 1–2 Shimizu S-pulse
FTMito Hollyhock 1–2 Shimizu S-pulse · Mito Hollyhock win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Mito Hollyhock win38%

Draw27%

Shimizu S-pulse win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 07:00

VenueK's Denki Stadium Mito

RefereeAtsushi Kamimura

Line-ups

Mito Hollyhock

4-4-2

Shimizu S-pulse

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mito Hollyhock

Shimizu S-pulse

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Shimizu S-pulse	8	−2	10
13	Mito Hollyhock	8	0	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Mito Hollyhock

4-4-2

34 K. Nishikawa

25 T. Mase

50 R. Ieizumi

17 K. Itakura

6 K. Okamoto

30 J. Okumura

19 T. Semba

38 Hugo Leonardo

11 Y. Torikai

8 C. Kato

22 K. Taniguchi

Coach · Daisuke Kimori

Substitutes

27 · J. Slowik

15 · Y. Kimoto

2 · M. Fofana

20 · Y. Funabashi

48 · Y. Yamashita

39 · H. Yamamoto

9 · R. Nemoto

18 · K. Uchino

29 · K. Tada

Shimizu S-pulse

4-3-3

16 T. Umeda

24 H. Sugai

3 Y. Takahashi

15 Y. Honda

25 M. Brunetti

21 K. Matsuzaki

2 Diego

17 M. Yumiba

49 K. Kitagawa

9 Oh Se-Hun

8 K. Inoue

Coach · Takayuki Yoshida

Substitutes

1 · Y. Oki

51 · J. Sumiyoshi

70 · S. Takagi

81 · K. Kozuka

47 · Y. Shimamoto

18 · T. Hirato

50 · T. Fujii

19 · K. Kinoshita

13 · R. Germain

Our number · mito hollyhock winPublished 11 Oct 07:02

38% The market36%

Us38%

~~Market~~36%

We make Mito Hollyhock a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mito hollyhock win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mito Hollyhock win	38%	36%	+3
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Shimizu S-pulse win	34%	35%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	45%	46%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	52%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	70%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	26%	−2
Mito Hollyhock or draw	66%	65%	+1
Mito Hollyhock clean sheet	30%	–	–
Shimizu S-pulse clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.6 10.0 6.0 2.4 1 10.7 12.8 7.6 3.1 2 6.9 8.1 4.8 3 3.0 3.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mito Hollyhock down, Shimizu S-pulse across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,658 J1 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Mito Hollyhock at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Shimizu S-pulse away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Mito Hollyhock, 1.20 for Shimizu S-pulse. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 06:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in J1 League

MITO HOLLYHOCK

WDWDLL3–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

SHIMIZU S-PULSE

LLDLWW0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kashiwa Reysol	9	+7	21
2	Machida Zelvia	9	+12	20
3	FC Tokyo	9	+9	20
4	Vissel Kobe	9	+5	19
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	8	+14	17
6	Kashima	9	+3	16
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	9	+4	15
8	Kawasaki Frontale	8	+4	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	9	0	13
10	Urawa	9	−5	12
11	Cerezo Osaka	9	−5	12
12	Shimizu S-pulse	8	−2	10
13	Mito Hollyhock	8	0	9
14	Kyoto Sanga	9	−5	8
15	V-varen Nagasaki	8	−5	8
16	Avispa Fukuoka	9	−2	7
17	Nagoya Grampus	8	−7	6
18	Gamba Osaka	9	−8	6
19	Tokyo Verdy	8	−8	4
20	JEF United Chiba	8	−11	4