Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction · J1 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mito HollyhockDrawSanfrecce Hiroshima

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sanfrecce Hiroshima are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mito Hollyhock 20%, draw 24%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 56%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce HiroshimaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Mito Hollyhock win20%

Draw24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima win56%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueBest Denki Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mito Hollyhock

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

10Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

Last match: 24 Oct · J1 League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	+19	26
17	Mito Hollyhock	11	−4	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sanfrecce hiroshima winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 56% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.8, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima~~0.95 – 1.76

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 26~~17 v 2

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mito Hollyhock win	20%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win	56%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Mito Hollyhock or draw	44%	–	–
Mito Hollyhock clean sheet	18%	–	–
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.0 11.6 10.3 6.0 2.7 1 6.2 11.2 9.6 5.6 2.5 2 3.0 5.2 4.6 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mito Hollyhock down, Sanfrecce Hiroshima across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,687 J1 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022.

Home and away form

Mito Hollyhock at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sanfrecce Hiroshima away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Mito Hollyhock, 1.76 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 5 Sept

MITO HOLLYHOCK

DLLLLL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA

WWWWLW6–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Machida Zelvia	12	+20	27
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	+19	26
3	Kashiwa Reysol	12	+6	25
4	FC Tokyo	11	+13	24
5	Vissel Kobe	12	+7	23
6	Kashima	12	+4	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	+6	19
8	Urawa	11	−3	18
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	11	+4	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	−1	16
11	Shimizu S-pulse	12	−10	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	−4	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	−7	13
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	−3	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	−7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	−8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	11	−4	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	−12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	−8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	11	−12	6