Machida Zelvia v Avispa Fukuoka prediction · J1 League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 10:33

Machida Zelvia 3–0 Avispa Fukuoka MACHIDA ZELVIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Machida Zelvia win~~51%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.357

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.353

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Machida Zelvia win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Machida Zelvia 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–22
1′KICK-OFF Machida Zelvia v Avispa Fukuoka
22′We said Machida Zelvia at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–6
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Machida Zelvia 1–0 Avispa Fukuoka
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Machida Zelvia win: 51% at kick-off, 79% now
23′Machida Zelvia ahead on 22′ through Tete Yengi. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
31′We said Machida Zelvia at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Machida Zelvia win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Yuji Kitajima · Off: Werik Popo
45′SECOND HALF Machida Zelvia 1–0 Avispa Fukuoka
47′HALF-TIME Machida Zelvia 1–0 Avispa Fukuoka
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Daihachi Okamura · Machida Zelvia
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Gen Shoji · Machida Zelvia
62′We said Machida Zelvia at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Machida Zelvia · On: Takuma Nishimura · Off: Tete Yengi
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Kokoro Maeda · Off: Keiya Shiihashi
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Yu Hashimoto · Off: Masato Yuzawa
72′We said Machida Zelvia at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Machida Zelvia 2–0 Avispa Fukuoka
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Machida Zelvia win: 51% at kick-off, 99% now
73′Hiroyuki Mae scores for Machida Zelvia on 73′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
75′We said Machida Zelvia at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Machida Zelvia 3–0 Avispa Fukuoka
76′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′76′: Henry Heroki Mochizuki on the scoresheet for Machida Zelvia, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Machida Zelvia · On: Mitchell Duke · Off: Takuma Nishimura Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Machida Zelvia · On: Ryohei Shirasaki · Off: Neta Lavi
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Machida Zelvia · On: Mitchell Duke · Off: Koki Ogawa
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Shohei Takemoto · Off: Masato Shigemi
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Machida Zelvia · On: Keiya Sento · Off: Yuki Soma
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Abdul Hanan Sani Brown · Off: Shu Morooka
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Machida Zelvia · On: Ibrahim Drešević · Off: Daihachi Okamura
FTFULL TIME Machida Zelvia 3–0 Avispa Fukuoka
FTMachida Zelvia 3–0 Avispa Fukuoka · Machida Zelvia win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Machida Zelvia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Machida Zelvia 51%, draw 27%, Avispa Fukuoka 22%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Machida Zelvia v Avispa FukuokaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Machida Zelvia win51%

Draw27%

Avispa Fukuoka win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 08:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueMachida GION Stadium

Line-ups

Machida Zelvia

3-4-2-1

Avispa Fukuoka

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Machida Zelvia

Avispa Fukuoka

3Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

Last match: 14 Oct · J-League Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Machida Zelvia	9	+12	20
17	Avispa Fukuoka	9	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Machida Zelvia

3-4-2-1

1 K. Tani

3 G. Shoji

50 D. Okamura

2 T. Ouwejan

6 H. Mochizuki

16 H. Mae

31 N. Lavi

33 T. Akimoto

9 K. Ogawa

7 Y. Soma

99 T. Yengi

Coach · Go Kuroda

Substitutes

66 · A. Koch

13 · T. Morita

5 · I. Dresevic

23 · R. Shirasaki

8 · K. Sento

34 · F. Tokumura

15 · M. Duke

20 · T. Nishimura

Avispa Fukuoka

3-4-2-1

24 Y. Obata

16 T. Oka

37 M. Tashiro

15 Y. Tsujioka

2 M. Yuzawa

34 K. Shiihashi

11 T. Miki

29 Y. Maejima

6 M. Shigemi

13 S. Morooka

9 Werik Popo

Coach · Shinya Tsukahara

Substitutes

1 · T. Nagaishi

38 · D. Miya

33 · K. Yamawaki

20 · K. Mikuni

47 · Y. Hashimoto

25 · Y. Kitajima

52 · S. Takemoto

55 · K. Maeda

32 · A. Brown

Our number · machida zelvia winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market52%

Us51%

~~Market~~52%

We make Machida Zelvia a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Machida Zelvia v Avispa Fukuoka~~1.44 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 20 v 7~~4 v 17

~~The market · Machida Zelvia win~~52% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Machida Zelvia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Machida Zelvia win	51%	52%	−1
Draw	27%	27%	0
Avispa Fukuoka win	22%	21%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	40%	45%	−5
Both teams to score	43%	49%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	66%	70%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	20%	25%	−5
Machida Zelvia or draw	78%	79%	−1
Machida Zelvia clean sheet	44%	–	–
Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 10.5 8.5 3.6 1 14.7 12.3 5.1 2 10.6 8.8 3.7 3 5.2 4.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Machida Zelvia down, Avispa Fukuoka across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,670 J1 League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Machida Zelvia at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Avispa Fukuoka away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Machida Zelvia, 0.83 for Avispa Fukuoka. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 07:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MAC 0–0 AVI · AVI 2–2 MAC · AVI 0–3 MAC · MAC 0–0 AVI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 29 Aug

MACHIDA ZELVIA

DWWDLW1–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 1–0

AVISPA FUKUOKA

LLDLLW1–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	+19	23
2	FC Tokyo	10	+13	23
3	Kashiwa Reysol	10	+5	21
4	Machida Zelvia	9	+12	20
5	Kashima	10	+5	19
6	Vissel Kobe	9	+5	19
7	Kawasaki Frontale	10	+5	16
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	10	+4	16
9	Urawa	10	−4	15
10	Shimizu S-pulse	10	−1	14
11	Fagiano Okayama	9	0	13
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	−4	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	−7	12
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	−2	9
15	V-varen Nagasaki	10	−7	9
16	Kyoto Sanga	10	−8	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	9	−2	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	−8	7
19	JEF United Chiba	10	−11	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	−14	4