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Kyoto Sanga v Machida Zelvia

Kyoto Sanga

0–1Full time

Machida Zelvia

J1 League · SAT 10 OCT · Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

Kyoto Sanga 0–1 Machida Zelvia MACHIDA ZELVIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Machida Zelvia win~~42%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.511

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.395

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Machida Zelvia win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Kyoto Sanga v Machida Zelvia
2′Much as we predicted: Machida Zelvia was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 32–26–42
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Tete Yengi · Machida Zelvia
28′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Kyoto Sanga · On: Alex Souza · Off: Rafael Papagaio
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Machida Zelvia win 34%)
45′SECOND HALF Kyoto Sanga 0–0 Machida Zelvia
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Machida Zelvia · On: Takahiro Akimoto · Off: Takuma Nishimura
69′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Machida Zelvia · On: Henry Heroki Mochizuki · Off: Hotaka Nakamura
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kyoto Sanga · On: Everton Maceió · Off: Ren Kato
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kyoto Sanga · On: Sung-jun Yoon · Off: Ryuma Nakano
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Everton Maceió · Kyoto Sanga
70′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Ranko Popović · Kyoto Sanga
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Machida Zelvia · On: Neta Lavi · Off: Keiya Sento
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Machida Zelvia · On: Mitchell Duke · Off: Tete Yengi
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Kyoto Sanga · On: Marco Túlio · Off: Hiroto Morooka
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kyoto Sanga · On: Takaaki Shichi · Off: Haruki Arai Corrected
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Kyoto Sanga 0–1 Machida Zelvia
85′⚽ GOAL · 86' Kyoto Sanga 0–1 Machida Zelvia · Takahiro Akimoto
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Machida Zelvia · On: Ibrahim Drešević · Off: Thomas Ouwejan
FTFULL TIME Kyoto Sanga 0–1 Machida Zelvia
FTKyoto Sanga 0–1 Machida Zelvia · Machida Zelvia win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kyoto Sanga win32%

Draw26%

Machida Zelvia win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

Venue · Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Referee · Koki Nagamine

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Kyoto Sanga

3-4-2-1

90 Halls

40 Yusuke Ishida

50 Yoshinori Suzuki

15 Kodai Nagata

26 Ren Kato

10 Shimpei Fukuoka

24 Hiroto Morooka

44 Kyo Sato

48 Ryuma Nakano

77 Haruki Arai

9 Rafael Elias

Coach · Ranko Popovic

Substitutes

17 · Alex Souza

25 · Sung-jun Yoon

38 · Maceió

11 · Marco Túlio

1 · Gakuji Ota

5 · Hisashi Appiah Tawiah

62 · Takaaki Shichi

8 · Takuji Yonemoto

99 · Fuchi Honda

Machida Zelvia

3-4-2-1

1 Kosei Tani

3 Gen Shoji

50 Daihachi Okamura

2 Thomas Ouwejan

88 Hotaka Nakamura

16 Hiroyuki Mae

8 Keiya Sento

7 Yuki Soma

9 Koki Ogawa

20 Takuma Nishimura

99 Tete Yengi

Coach · Go Kuroda

Substitutes

33 · Takahiro Akimoto

6 · Henry Heroki Mochizuki

31 · Neta Lavi

15 · Mitchell Duke

5 · Ibrahim Drešević

13 · Tatsuya Morita

4 · Ryuho Kikuchi

23 · Ryohei Shirasaki

34 · Futa Tokumura

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kyoto Sanga

3-4-2-1

90 Halls

40 Yusuke Ishida

50 Yoshinori Suzuki

15 Kodai Nagata

26 Ren Kato

10 Shimpei Fukuoka

24 Hiroto Morooka

44 Kyo Sato

48 Ryuma Nakano

77 Haruki Arai

9 Rafael Elias

Coach · Ranko Popovic

Substitutes

17 · Alex Souza

25 · Sung-jun Yoon

38 · Maceió

11 · Marco Túlio

1 · Gakuji Ota

5 · Hisashi Appiah Tawiah

62 · Takaaki Shichi

8 · Takuji Yonemoto

99 · Fuchi Honda

Machida Zelvia

3-4-2-1

1 Kosei Tani

3 Gen Shoji

50 Daihachi Okamura

2 Thomas Ouwejan

88 Hotaka Nakamura

16 Hiroyuki Mae

8 Keiya Sento

7 Yuki Soma

9 Koki Ogawa

20 Takuma Nishimura

99 Tete Yengi

Coach · Go Kuroda

Substitutes

33 · Takahiro Akimoto

6 · Henry Heroki Mochizuki

31 · Neta Lavi

15 · Mitchell Duke

5 · Ibrahim Drešević

13 · Tatsuya Morita

4 · Ryuho Kikuchi

23 · Ryohei Shirasaki

34 · Futa Tokumura

Our number · machida zelvia winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

42% The market49%

Us42%

~~Market~~49%

We make Machida Zelvia a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · machida zelvia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kyoto Sanga win	32%	25%	+7
Draw	26%	26%	0
Machida Zelvia win	42%	49%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	48%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Kyoto Sanga or draw	58%	51%	+7
Kyoto Sanga clean sheet	25%	–	–
Machida Zelvia clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.5 10.3 7.3 3.4 1 8.8 12.3 8.7 4.1 2 5.3 7.4 5.2 2.5 3 2.2 3.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kyoto Sanga down, Machida Zelvia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,654 J1 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kyoto Sanga at home: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Machida Zelvia away: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Kyoto Sanga, 1.41 for Machida Zelvia. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 10:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KYO 1–1 MAC · MAC 1–2 KYO · MAC 1–0 KYO · KYO 0–3 MAC

Form · last six in J1 League

KYOTO SANGA

LWDLLW1–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–1

MACHIDA ZELVIA

WDWWDL3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–4

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kashiwa Reysol	9	+7	21
2	Vissel Kobe	9	+5	19
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	8	+14	17
4	Machida Zelvia	8	+11	17
5	FC Tokyo	8	+6	17
6	Kashima	9	+3	16
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	8	+4	14
8	Kawasaki Frontale	8	+4	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	8	+1	13
10	Urawa	8	−2	12
11	Cerezo Osaka	8	−5	11
12	Shimizu S-pulse	8	−2	10
13	Mito Hollyhock	8	0	9
14	Kyoto Sanga	8	−4	8
15	V-varen Nagasaki	8	−5	8
16	Nagoya Grampus	8	−7	6
17	Gamba Osaka	9	−8	6
18	Avispa Fukuoka	8	−3	4
19	Tokyo Verdy	8	−8	4
20	JEF United Chiba	8	−11	4