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Kyoto Sanga v Kashima

Kyoto Sanga

2–2Full time

Kashima

J1 League · WED 21 OCT · Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30

Kyoto Sanga 2–2 Kashima KASHIMA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kashima win~~47%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.851

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.838

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kashima win at 47%.
2′Much as we predicted: Kashima was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 28–26–46
2′KICK-OFF Kyoto Sanga v Kashima
15′We said Kashima at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 1–0 · 56–24–20
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Kyoto Sanga 1–0 Kashima
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Kashima win: 47% at kick-off, 20% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Kyoto Sanga win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Kashima win 44%)
16′Kyoto Sanga ahead on 16′ through Haruki Arai. 1–0. 1–0 · 56–24–20
19′We said Kashima at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 57–24–19
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Hiroto Morooka · Kyoto Sanga
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Kashima win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 59–25–16
35′7 shots for Kashima, 1 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 60–25–15
37′We said Kashima at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
38′Kashima have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 61–25–14
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kashima · On: Aleksandar Čavrić · Off: Minato Yoshida
45′SECOND HALF Kyoto Sanga 1–0 Kashima
49′HALF-TIME Kyoto Sanga 1–0 Kashima
53′We said Kashima at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–24–9
59′We said Kashima at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 21–49–31
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Kashima win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Kyoto Sanga 1–1 Kashima
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Kashima win: 47% at kick-off, 31% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Kyoto Sanga win 69%)
61′Aleksandar Čavrić scores for Kashima on 59′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 20–50–29
61′We said Kashima at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 20–50–29
63′GOAL DISALLOWED · 63' Kashima
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Kashima win: 47% at kick-off, 6% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Kyoto Sanga win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 51%)
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Kashima · On: José Élber Pimentel da Silva · Off: Léo Ceará
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Kyoto Sanga · On: Takumi Kato · Off: Takaaki Shichi
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Kyoto Sanga · On: João Pedro · Off: Hiroto Morooka
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Kyoto Sanga · On: Weverton Silva de Andrade · Off: Sung-jun Yoon
68′We said Kashima at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
72′Kashima have had 12 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 78–19–3
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Kashima · On: Gaku Shibasaki · Off: Kento Misao
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Kashima · On: Ryuta Koike · Off: Keisuke Tsukui
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Kyoto Sanga · On: Marco Túlio · Off: Alex Souza
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Kyoto Sanga 1–1 Kashima
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Kashima win: 47% at kick-off, 16% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Kyoto Sanga win 84%)
80′José Élber Pimentel da Silva scores for Kashima on 78′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 10–76–14
87′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Takumi Kato · Kyoto Sanga
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Kashima win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kyoto Sanga · On: Hisashi Appiah Tawiah · Off: Ryuma Nakano
89′Kashima have had 16 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 4–90–6
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Kashima · On: Homare Tokuda · Off: Yuma Suzuki
95′We published Kashima at 47%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–2 · 0–1–99
95′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–1–99
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Kyoto Sanga 1–2 Kashima
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' Kashima win: 47% at kick-off, 99% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Kashima win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
97′90′: Yuta Matsumura on the scoresheet for Kashima. 2–2 · 1–97–2
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Kyoto Sanga 2–2 Kashima
97′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+7' Kashima win: 47% at kick-off, 2% now
97′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+7' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Kashima win 99%)
98′Kyoto Sanga level it on 90′ through Haruki Arai. 2–2. 2–2 · 1–97–2
FTFULL TIME Kyoto Sanga 2–2 Kashima
FTKyoto Sanga 2–2 Kashima · Kashima win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kashima are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kyoto Sanga 28%, draw 25%, Kashima 47%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Kyoto Sanga v KashimaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Kyoto Sanga win28%

Draw25%

Kashima win47%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSanga Stadium by Kyocera

RefereeFu Ming

Line-ups

Kyoto Sanga

3-4-2-1

Kashima

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kyoto Sanga

Kashima

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · J1 League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Kashima	10	+5	19
16	Kyoto Sanga	10	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kyoto Sanga

3-4-2-1

90 Halls

40 Y. Ishida

50 Y. Suzuki

15 K. Nagata

44 K. Sato

25 Yoon Sung-Jun

24 H. Morooka

62 T. Shichi

48 R. Nakano

77 H. Arai

17 Alex Negueba

Coach · R. Popović

Substitutes

16 · T. Hiraoka

99 · F. Honda

6 · João Pedro

23 · T. Kato

11 · Marco Túlio

1 · G. Ota

5 · H. Tawiah

43 · Weverton

60 · R. Yamanaka

Kashima

4-4-2

1 T. Hayakawa

23 K. Tsukui

55 N. Ueda

3 Kim Tae-Hyeon

7 R. Ogawa

30 M. Yoshida

6 K. Misao

8 Matheus Bueno

27 Y. Matsumura

40 Y. Suzuki

9 Léo Ceará

Coach · T. Oniki

Substitutes

77 · A. Čavrić

17 · Élber

24 · H. Hayashu

14 · Y. Higuchi

25 · R. Koike

5 · I. Sekigawa

10 · G. Shibasaki

34 · H. Tokuda

21 · T. Yamada

Our number · kashima winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market48%

Us47%

~~Market~~48%

We make Kashima a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kyoto Sanga v Kashima~~1.13 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 19~~16 v 6

~~The market · Kashima win~~48% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kashima win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kyoto Sanga win	28%	26%	+2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Kashima win	47%	48%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	52%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	31%	−3
Kyoto Sanga or draw	53%	52%	+1
Kyoto Sanga clean sheet	22%	–	–
Kashima clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.1 10.5 8.2 4.2 1 7.7 12.0 9.2 4.7 2 4.4 6.8 5.2 2.7 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kyoto Sanga down, Kashima across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,672 J1 League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kyoto Sanga at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kashima away: 2.00 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Kyoto Sanga, 1.54 for Kashima. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 10:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KYO 1–1 KAS · KAS 3–4 KYO · KYO 0–0 KAS · KAS 1–0 KYO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept

KYOTO SANGA

DLLWLL1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3

KASHIMA

LLLDWW2–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	+19	23
2	Machida Zelvia	10	+15	23
3	FC Tokyo	10	+13	23
4	Vissel Kobe	10	+8	22
5	Kashiwa Reysol	10	+5	21
6	Kashima	10	+5	19
7	Kawasaki Frontale	10	+5	16
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	10	+4	16
9	Urawa	10	−4	15
10	Shimizu S-pulse	10	−1	14
11	Fagiano Okayama	10	−3	13
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	−4	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	−7	12
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	−2	9
15	V-varen Nagasaki	10	−7	9
16	Kyoto Sanga	10	−8	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	10	−5	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	−8	7
19	JEF United Chiba	10	−11	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	−14	4