

Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kobe
Kawasaki Frontale
Vissel KobeJ1 League · WED 21 OCT · Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Vissel Kobe win at 41%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Vissel Kobe 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
- 1′KICK-OFF Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kobe
- 29′Kawasaki Frontale have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 32–31–37
- 35′8 shots for Kawasaki Frontale, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 32–33–36
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vissel Kobe · On: Yuan Iwamoto · Off: Katsuya Nagato
- 45′SECOND HALF Kawasaki Frontale 0–0 Vissel Kobe
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Vissel Kobe win 35%)
- 47′HALF-TIME Kawasaki Frontale 0–0 Vissel Kobe
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Vissel Kobe win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
- 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Asahi Sasaki · Kawasaki Frontale
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 27–43–30
- 57′We said Vissel Kobe at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 26–44–29
- 58′12 shots for Kawasaki Frontale, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 26–45–29
- 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Tatsuya Ito · Off: Shuto Yamaichi
- 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Yasuto Wakizaka · Off: Yuto Ozeki
- 61′We said Vissel Kobe at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–0 · 72–21–6
- 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Kawasaki Frontale 1–0 Vissel Kobe
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Vissel Kobe win: 41% at kick-off, 6% now
- 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Kawasaki Frontale win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 48%)
- 62′61′: Marcio Augusto da Silva Barbosa on the scoresheet for Kawasaki Frontale, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–21–6
- 67′We said Vissel Kobe at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Filip Uremović · Off: Pedro Romano
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Vissel Kobe · On: Jean Patric Lima dos Reis · Off: Nanasei Iino
- 70′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–0
- 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Kawasaki Frontale 2–0 Vissel Kobe
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Vissel Kobe win: 41% at kick-off, under 1% now
- 72′Kawasaki Frontale ahead on 71′ through Tatsuya Ito. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
- 72′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–18–3
- 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Kawasaki Frontale 2–1 Vissel Kobe
- 74′Yuya Osako scores for Vissel Kobe on 73′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 81–17–3
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vissel Kobe · On: Mitsuki Hidaka · Off: Yuya Kuwasaki
- 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Yoshinori Muto · Vissel Kobe
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Yu Kobayashi · Off: Derik Lacerda
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Yuki Yamamoto · Off: Reon Yamahara
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Vissel Kobe · On: Ren Komatsu · Off: Erik Nascimento de Lima
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Kyosuke Mochiyama · Off: Marcio Augusto da Silva Barbosa
- 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Yuto Matsunagane · Off: Kento Tachibanada
- 97′2–1 at the end. Our 41% on Vissel Kobe misses, and the record keeps it. 2–1 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Kawasaki Frontale 2–1 Vissel Kobe
- FTKawasaki Frontale 2–1 Vissel Kobe · Vissel Kobe win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Vissel Kobe are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Kawasaki Frontale 35%, draw 24%, Vissel Kobe 41%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Kawasaki Frontale win35%
Vissel Kobe win41%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00
RoundMatchday 11
VenueUvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu
RefereeFutoshi Nakamura
Match timeline
All events
Kawasaki FrontaleMIN
Vissel KobeEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Kawasaki Frontale
4-2-3-1
Vissel Kobe
4-3-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Kawasaki Frontale
Vissel Kobe
Last match: 17 Oct · J1 League
Last match: 18 Oct · J1 League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Kawasaki Frontale
4-2-3-1
49 S. Brodersen
29 R. Yamahara
4 Pedro Romano
28 Y. Maruyama
5 A. Sasaki
19 S. Kawahara
8 K. Tachibanada
25 Shuto Yamaichi
16 Y. Ozeki
23 Marcinho
97 Derik Lacerda
Coach · S. Hasebe
Substitutes
17 · T. Ito
11 · Y. Kobayashi
2 · Y. Matsunagane
20 · K. Mochiyama
34 · Ryuki Osa
1 · L. Yamaguchi
22 · F. Uremović
14 · Y. Wakizaka
6 · Y. Yamamoto
Vissel Kobe
4-3-3
71 S. Gonda
2 N. Iino
4 T. Yamakawa
3 Matheus Thuler
15 Diego
7 Y. Ideguchi
25 Y. Kuwasaki
94 Erik
11 Y. Muto
10 Y. Osako
41 K. Nagato
Coach · M. Skibbe
Substitutes
23 · Yuan Iwamoto
26 · Jean Patrick
29 · R. Komatsu
24 · G. Sakai
20 · K. Watanabe
44 · M. Hidaka
5 · Y. Goke
16 · Caetano
21 · S. Arai
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Kawasaki Frontale
4-2-3-1
49 S. Brodersen
29 R. Yamahara
4 Pedro Romano
28 Y. Maruyama
5 A. Sasaki
19 S. Kawahara
8 K. Tachibanada
25 Shuto Yamaichi
16 Y. Ozeki
23 Marcinho
97 Derik Lacerda
Coach · S. Hasebe
Substitutes
17 · T. Ito
11 · Y. Kobayashi
2 · Y. Matsunagane
20 · K. Mochiyama
34 · Ryuki Osa
1 · L. Yamaguchi
22 · F. Uremović
14 · Y. Wakizaka
6 · Y. Yamamoto
Vissel Kobe
4-3-3
71 S. Gonda
2 N. Iino
4 T. Yamakawa
3 Matheus Thuler
15 Diego
7 Y. Ideguchi
25 Y. Kuwasaki
94 Erik
11 Y. Muto
10 Y. Osako
41 K. Nagato
Coach · M. Skibbe
Substitutes
23 · Yuan Iwamoto
26 · Jean Patrick
29 · R. Komatsu
24 · G. Sakai
20 · K. Watanabe
44 · M. Hidaka
5 · Y. Goke
16 · Caetano
21 · S. Arai
We make Vissel Kobe a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale win | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | −2 |
| Vissel Kobe win | 41% | 35% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Kawasaki Frontale or draw | 59% | 65% | −6 |
| Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
| Vissel Kobe clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2022Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept
KAWASAKI FRONTALE
VISSEL KOBE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 10 | +19 | 23 |
| 2 | Machida Zelvia | 10 | +15 | 23 |
| 3 | FC Tokyo | 10 | +13 | 23 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 10 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 | Kashiwa Reysol | 10 | +5 | 21 |
| 6 | Kashima | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 10 | +5 | 16 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 10 | +4 | 16 |
| 9 | Urawa | 10 | −4 | 15 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-pulse | 10 | −1 | 14 |
| 11 | Fagiano Okayama | 10 | −3 | 13 |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 10 | −4 | 12 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 10 | −7 | 12 |
| 14 | Mito Hollyhock | 10 | −2 | 9 |
| 15 | V-varen Nagasaki | 10 | −7 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 10 | −8 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 10 | −5 | 7 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 10 | −8 | 7 |
| 19 | JEF United Chiba | 10 | −11 | 6 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 10 | −14 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Machida Zelvia
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashima
Yokohama F. Marinos
Urawa
Shimizu S-pulse
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
Kyoto Sanga
Avispa Fukuoka
Gamba Osaka
JEF United Chiba
Tokyo Verdy