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Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kobe

Kawasaki Frontale
2–1Full time
Vissel Kobe

J1 League · WED 21 OCT · Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30
Kawasaki Frontale 2–1 Vissel Kobe VISSEL KOBE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Vissel Kobe win41%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.646
The market’s Brier score0.567

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vissel Kobe win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Vissel Kobe 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kobe
  4. 29′Kawasaki Frontale have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 32–31–37
  5. 35′8 shots for Kawasaki Frontale, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 32–33–36
  6. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vissel Kobe · On: Yuan Iwamoto · Off: Katsuya Nagato
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Kawasaki Frontale 0–0 Vissel Kobe
  8. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Vissel Kobe win 35%)
  9. 47′HALF-TIME Kawasaki Frontale 0–0 Vissel Kobe
  10. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Vissel Kobe win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
  11. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Asahi Sasaki · Kawasaki Frontale
  12. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 27–43–30
  13. 57′We said Vissel Kobe at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 26–44–29
  14. 58′12 shots for Kawasaki Frontale, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 26–45–29
  15. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Tatsuya Ito · Off: Shuto Yamaichi
  16. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Yasuto Wakizaka · Off: Yuto Ozeki
  17. 61′We said Vissel Kobe at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–0 · 72–21–6
  18. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Kawasaki Frontale 1–0 Vissel Kobe
  19. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Vissel Kobe win: 41% at kick-off, 6% now
  20. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Kawasaki Frontale win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 48%)
  21. 62′61′: Marcio Augusto da Silva Barbosa on the scoresheet for Kawasaki Frontale, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–21–6
  22. 67′We said Vissel Kobe at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
  23. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Filip Uremović · Off: Pedro Romano
  24. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Vissel Kobe · On: Jean Patric Lima dos Reis · Off: Nanasei Iino
  25. 70′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–0
  26. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Kawasaki Frontale 2–0 Vissel Kobe
  27. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Vissel Kobe win: 41% at kick-off, under 1% now
  28. 72′Kawasaki Frontale ahead on 71′ through Tatsuya Ito. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  29. 72′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–18–3
  30. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Kawasaki Frontale 2–1 Vissel Kobe
  31. 74′Yuya Osako scores for Vissel Kobe on 73′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 81–17–3
  32. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vissel Kobe · On: Mitsuki Hidaka · Off: Yuya Kuwasaki
  33. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Yoshinori Muto · Vissel Kobe
  34. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Yu Kobayashi · Off: Derik Lacerda
  35. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Yuki Yamamoto · Off: Reon Yamahara
  36. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Vissel Kobe · On: Ren Komatsu · Off: Erik Nascimento de Lima
  37. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Kyosuke Mochiyama · Off: Marcio Augusto da Silva Barbosa
  38. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Yuto Matsunagane · Off: Kento Tachibanada
  39. 97′2–1 at the end. Our 41% on Vissel Kobe misses, and the record keeps it. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  40. FTFULL TIME Kawasaki Frontale 2–1 Vissel Kobe
  41. FTKawasaki Frontale 2–1 Vissel Kobe · Vissel Kobe win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vissel Kobe are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kawasaki Frontale 35%, draw 24%, Vissel Kobe 41%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel KobeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Kawasaki Frontale win35%
Draw24%
Vissel Kobe win41%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueUvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu

RefereeFutoshi Nakamura

Line-ups

Kawasaki Frontale

4-2-3-1

Vissel Kobe

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kawasaki Frontale

Vissel Kobe

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · J1 League

Last match: 18 Oct · J1 League

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Vissel Kobe10+822
7Kawasaki Frontale10+516

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kawasaki Frontale

4-2-3-1

49 S. Brodersen

29 R. Yamahara

4 Pedro Romano

28 Y. Maruyama

5 A. Sasaki

19 S. Kawahara

8 K. Tachibanada

25 Shuto Yamaichi

16 Y. Ozeki

23 Marcinho

97 Derik Lacerda

Coach · S. Hasebe

Substitutes

17 · T. Ito

11 · Y. Kobayashi

2 · Y. Matsunagane

20 · K. Mochiyama

34 · Ryuki Osa

1 · L. Yamaguchi

22 · F. Uremović

14 · Y. Wakizaka

6 · Y. Yamamoto

Vissel Kobe

4-3-3

71 S. Gonda

2 N. Iino

4 T. Yamakawa

3 Matheus Thuler

15 Diego

7 Y. Ideguchi

25 Y. Kuwasaki

94 Erik

11 Y. Muto

10 Y. Osako

41 K. Nagato

Coach · M. Skibbe

Substitutes

23 · Yuan Iwamoto

26 · Jean Patrick

29 · R. Komatsu

24 · G. Sakai

20 · K. Watanabe

44 · M. Hidaka

5 · Y. Goke

16 · Caetano

21 · S. Arai

Our number · vissel kobe winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 21 Oct 08:08 · locked at kick-off
41% The market35%
Us41%
Market35%

We make Vissel Kobe a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kobe1.43 – 1.55
Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 16 v 227 v 4
The market · Vissel Kobe win35% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 10:38
Our probability · Vissel Kobe win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kawasaki Frontale win35%39%−4
Draw24%26%−2
Vissel Kobe win41%35%+6
Over 2.5 goals57%57%0
Both teams to score60%61%−1
Over 1.5 goals80%79%+1
Over 3.5 goals35%37%−2
Kawasaki Frontale or draw59%65%−6
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet21%––
Vissel Kobe clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%
0123450 5.3 7.9 6.1 3.2 1 7.2 11.3 8.6 4.5 2 5.2 7.9 6.1 3.2 3 2.5 3.8 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kawasaki Frontale down, Vissel Kobe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.22
Over 2.55 of 9
Both scored4 of 9
Last meetingsKAW 1–2 VIS · VIS 2–1 KAW · KAW 3–0 VIS · VIS 1–0 KAW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept

KAWASAKI FRONTALE

LWWDLW1–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 4–2

VISSEL KOBE

WWWWLW2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sanfrecce Hiroshima10+1923
2Machida Zelvia10+1523
3FC Tokyo10+1323
4Vissel Kobe10+822
5Kashiwa Reysol10+521
6Kashima10+519
7Kawasaki Frontale10+516
8Yokohama F. Marinos10+416
9Urawa10−415
10Shimizu S-pulse10−114
11Fagiano Okayama10−313
12Nagoya Grampus10−412
13Cerezo Osaka10−712
14Mito Hollyhock10−29
15V-varen Nagasaki10−79
16Kyoto Sanga10−88
17Avispa Fukuoka10−57
18Gamba Osaka10−87
19JEF United Chiba10−116
20Tokyo Verdy10−144

The competition's standings before kick-off.