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Kawasaki Frontale v Nagoya Grampus

Kawasaki Frontale

1–2Full time

Nagoya Grampus

J1 League · SUN 11 OCT · Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 10:36

Kawasaki Frontale 1–2 Nagoya Grampus KAWASAKI FRONTALE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kawasaki Frontale win~~50%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.830

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.924

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kawasaki Frontale win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kawasaki Frontale 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–23–27
2′Haruya Fujii scores for Nagoya Grampus on 2′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 28–22–50
3′Haruya Fujii scores for Nagoya Grampus on 2′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 50–23–27
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Kawasaki Frontale win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Nagoya Grampus win 27%)
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Kawasaki Frontale win: 50% at kick-off, 28% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Nagoya Grampus win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Kawasaki Frontale win 28%)
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Kawasaki Frontale win: 50% at kick-off, 50% now
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Kawasaki Frontale win: 50% at kick-off, 50% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Kawasaki Frontale win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Nagoya Grampus win 27%)
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Kawasaki Frontale 1–1 Nagoya Grampus · Yasuto Wakizaka
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Kawasaki Frontale win: 50% at kick-off, 28% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Nagoya Grampus win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Kawasaki Frontale win 28%)
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Kawasaki Frontale win: 50% at kick-off, 50% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Kawasaki Frontale win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Nagoya Grampus win 27%)
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Kawasaki Frontale win: 50% at kick-off, 28% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Nagoya Grampus win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Kawasaki Frontale win 28%)
6′4′ and it is 1–1: Yasuto Wakizaka on the scoresheet for Kawasaki Frontale. 1–1 · 49–24–27
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Kawasaki Frontale win: 50% at kick-off, 50% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Kawasaki Frontale win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Nagoya Grampus win 27%)
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Kawasaki Frontale win: 50% at kick-off, 28% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Nagoya Grampus win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Kawasaki Frontale win 28%)
8′4′ and it is 1–1: Yasuto Wakizaka on the scoresheet for Kawasaki Frontale. 1–1 · 49–24–27
11′Little has changed for our model: Kawasaki Frontale 50% before kick-off, 48% now. 1–1 · 48–24–27
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Kensuke Nagai · Nagoya Grampus
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Reon Yamahara · Kawasaki Frontale
45′SECOND HALF Kawasaki Frontale 1–1 Nagoya Grampus
47′HALF-TIME Kawasaki Frontale 1–1 Nagoya Grampus
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Yuki Nogami · Nagoya Grampus
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Kyosuke Mochiyama · Off: Derik Lacerda Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Asahi Sasaki · Off: Reon Yamahara Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Nagoya Grampus · On: Yuya Yamagishi · Off: Kensuke Nagai Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Nagoya Grampus · On: Mateus · Off: Yuki Nogami Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Nagoya Grampus · On: Hidemasa Koda · Off: Ryuji Izumi Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Nagoya Grampus · On: Masahito Ono · Off: Takuya Uchida Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Yuto Ozeki · Off: Yuki Yamamoto Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Ryuki Osa · Off: Marcio Augusto da Silva Barbosa Corrected
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Kawasaki Frontale 1–2 Nagoya Grampus · Yasuto Wakizaka
72′⚽ GOAL · 73' Kawasaki Frontale 1–2 Nagoya Grampus · Yuya Yamagishi
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Akihiro Ienaga · Off: Yasuto Wakizaka Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Nagoya Grampus · On: Yota Sato · Off: Tsukasa Morishima Corrected
FTFULL TIME Kawasaki Frontale 1–2 Nagoya Grampus
FTKawasaki Frontale 1–2 Nagoya Grampus · Kawasaki Frontale win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Kawasaki Frontale win50%

Draw23%

Nagoya Grampus win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 08:00

VenueUvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu

RefereeYuzo Sutani

Line-ups

Kawasaki Frontale

4-2-3-1

Nagoya Grampus

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kawasaki Frontale

Nagoya Grampus

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Kawasaki Frontale	8	+4	13
17	Nagoya Grampus	8	−7	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kawasaki Frontale

4-2-3-1

49 Svend Brodersen

29 Reon Yamahara

4 Pedro Romano

22 Filip Uremović

13 Sota Miura

8 Kento Tachibanada

6 Yuki Yamamoto

17 Tatsuya Ito

14 Yasuto Wakizaka

23 Marcinho

97 Derik Lacerda

Coach · Shigetoshi Hasebe

Substitutes

5 · Asahi Sasaki

20 · Kyosuke Mochiyama

34 · Ryuki Osa

16 · Yuto Ozeki

41 · Akihiro Ienaga

1 · Louis Yamaguchi

28 · Yuichi Maruyama

25 · Shuto Yamaichi

19 · So Kawahara

Nagoya Grampus

3-4-1-2

1 Daniel Schmidt

70 Teruki Hara

13 Haruya Fujii

31 Tomoki Takamine

2 Yuki Nogami

15 Sho Inagaki

14 Tsukasa Morishima

7 Ryuji Izumi

17 Takuya Uchida

18 Kensuke Nagai

22 Yudai Kimura

Coach · Mihailo Petrovic

Substitutes

10 · Mateus

11 · Yuya Yamagishi

19 · Hidemasa Koda

41 · Masahito Ono

3 · Yota Sato

35 · Alexandre Pisano

55 · Shuhei Tokumoto

58 · Tomoya Koyamatsu

33 · Taichi Kikuchi

Our number · kawasaki frontale winPublished 11 Oct 08:03

50% The market53%

Us50%

~~Market~~53%

We make Kawasaki Frontale a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kawasaki frontale win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kawasaki Frontale win	50%	53%	−3
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Nagoya Grampus win	27%	23%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	62%	62%	0
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	41%	−2
Kawasaki Frontale or draw	73%	77%	−4
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet	27%	–	–
Nagoya Grampus clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.3 5.5 3.6 1 7.7 10.2 6.7 3.0 2 7.2 9.4 6.2 2.7 3 4.5 5.8 3.8 4 2.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kawasaki Frontale down, Nagoya Grampus across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,658 J1 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kawasaki Frontale at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Nagoya Grampus away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Kawasaki Frontale, 1.32 for Nagoya Grampus. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 07:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~NAG 3–4 KAW · KAW 4–0 NAG · NAG 2–0 KAW · KAW 2–1 NAG

Form · last six in J1 League

KAWASAKI FRONTALE

DWLWWD1–1 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 3–3

NAGOYA GRAMPUS

WWLLLL3–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kashiwa Reysol	9	+7	21
2	Machida Zelvia	9	+12	20
3	FC Tokyo	9	+9	20
4	Vissel Kobe	9	+5	19
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	8	+14	17
6	Kashima	9	+3	16
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	9	+4	15
8	Kawasaki Frontale	8	+4	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	9	0	13
10	Urawa	9	−5	12
11	Cerezo Osaka	9	−5	12
12	Shimizu S-pulse	8	−2	10
13	Mito Hollyhock	8	0	9
14	Kyoto Sanga	9	−5	8
15	V-varen Nagasaki	8	−5	8
16	Avispa Fukuoka	9	−2	7
17	Nagoya Grampus	8	−7	6
18	Gamba Osaka	9	−8	6
19	Tokyo Verdy	8	−8	4
20	JEF United Chiba	8	−11	4