Kawasaki Frontale v Fagiano Okayama prediction · J1 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kawasaki FrontaleDrawFagiano Okayama

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 07:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kawasaki Frontale 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kawasaki Frontale are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kawasaki Frontale 50%, draw 23%, Fagiano Okayama 27%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Kawasaki Frontale v Fagiano OkayamaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Kawasaki Frontale win50%

Draw23%

Fagiano Okayama win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 07:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueUvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kawasaki Frontale

Fagiano Okayama

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	+6	19
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	−1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kawasaki frontale winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

50% The market44%

Us50%

~~Market~~44%

We make Kawasaki Frontale a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kawasaki Frontale v Fagiano Okayama~~1.79 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 16~~7 v 10

~~The market · Kawasaki Frontale win~~44% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kawasaki Frontale win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kawasaki Frontale win	50%	44%	+6
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Fagiano Okayama win	27%	29%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	58%	53%	+5
Both teams to score	59%	57%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	76%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	36%	33%	+3
Kawasaki Frontale or draw	73%	71%	+2
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet	29%	–	–
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.1 5.9 3.8 1 8.5 10.8 6.6 2.8 2 7.6 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 4.6 5.6 3.5 4 2.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kawasaki Frontale down, Fagiano Okayama across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,682 J1 League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kawasaki Frontale at home: 2.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fagiano Okayama away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Kawasaki Frontale, 1.25 for Fagiano Okayama. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KAW 1–1 FAG · FAG 0–0 KAW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept

KAWASAKI FRONTALE

WWDLWW3–1 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 2–1

FAGIANO OKAYAMA

WWLLLW3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Machida Zelvia	12	+20	27
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	+19	26
3	Kashiwa Reysol	12	+6	25
4	FC Tokyo	11	+13	24
5	Vissel Kobe	12	+7	23
6	Kashima	12	+4	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	+6	19
8	Urawa	11	−3	18
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	11	+4	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	−1	16
11	Shimizu S-pulse	12	−10	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	−4	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	−7	13
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	−3	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	−7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	−8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	11	−4	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	−12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	−8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	11	−12	6