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Kashiwa Reysol v Vissel Kobe

Kashiwa Reysol

4–2Full time

Vissel Kobe

J1 League · FRI 9 OCT · Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 13:31

Kashiwa Reysol 4–2 Vissel Kobe VISSEL KOBE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vissel Kobe win~~38%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.644

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.544

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kashiwa Reysol win35%

Draw27%

Vissel Kobe win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 11:00

Venue · Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium

Referee · Koichiro Fukushima

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Kashiwa Reysol

3-4-2-1

77 Tomoya Wakahara

88 Seiya Baba

4 Taiyo Koga

26 Daiki Sugioka

24 Tojiro Kubo

21 Yudai Konishi

39 Nobuteru Nakagawa

5 Keita Endo

8 Yoshio Koizumi

87 Hinata Yamauchi

15 Shota Fujio

Coach · Ricardo Rodriguez

Substitutes

28 · Sachiro Toshima

29 · Kengo Nagai

20 · Yusuke Segawa

44 · Kenshin Yuba

42 · Wataru Harada

9 · Mao Hosoya

2 · Hiromu Mitsumaru

16 · Koya Yuruki

40 · Riki Harakawa

Vissel Kobe

4-4-2

1 Daiya Maekawa

17 Issei Takahashi

4 Tetsushi Yamakawa

3 Thuler

15 Diego

11 Yoshinori Muto

7 Yosuke Ideguchi

24 Gotoku Sakai

41 Katsuya Nagato

94 Erik

10 Yuya Osako

Coach · Michael Skibbe

Substitutes

26 · Jean Patric

16 · Caetano

23 · Yuan Iwamoto

29 · Ren Komatsu

2 · Nanasei Iino

71 · Shuichi Gonda

5 · Yuta Goke

25 · Yuya Kuwasaki

44 · Mitsuki Hidaka

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kashiwa Reysol

3-4-2-1

77 Tomoya Wakahara

88 Seiya Baba

4 Taiyo Koga

26 Daiki Sugioka

24 Tojiro Kubo

21 Yudai Konishi

39 Nobuteru Nakagawa

5 Keita Endo

8 Yoshio Koizumi

87 Hinata Yamauchi

15 Shota Fujio

Coach · Ricardo Rodriguez

Substitutes

28 · Sachiro Toshima

29 · Kengo Nagai

20 · Yusuke Segawa

44 · Kenshin Yuba

42 · Wataru Harada

9 · Mao Hosoya

2 · Hiromu Mitsumaru

16 · Koya Yuruki

40 · Riki Harakawa

Vissel Kobe

4-4-2

1 Daiya Maekawa

17 Issei Takahashi

4 Tetsushi Yamakawa

3 Thuler

15 Diego

11 Yoshinori Muto

7 Yosuke Ideguchi

24 Gotoku Sakai

41 Katsuya Nagato

94 Erik

10 Yuya Osako

Coach · Michael Skibbe

Substitutes

26 · Jean Patric

16 · Caetano

23 · Yuan Iwamoto

29 · Ren Komatsu

2 · Nanasei Iino

71 · Shuichi Gonda

5 · Yuta Goke

25 · Yuya Kuwasaki

44 · Mitsuki Hidaka

Our number · vissel kobe winPublished 9 Oct 11:02

38% The market32%

Us38%

~~Market~~32%

We make Vissel Kobe a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vissel kobe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 29% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kashiwa Reysol win	35%	40%	−5
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Vissel Kobe win	38%	32%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%	−6
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	24%	30%	−6
Kashiwa Reysol or draw	62%	68%	−6
Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet	28%	–	–
Vissel Kobe clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.6 10.7 6.8 2.9 1 10.1 12.8 8.1 3.4 2 6.1 7.7 4.8 2.1 3 2.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kashiwa Reysol down, Vissel Kobe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,652 J1 League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kashiwa Reysol at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Vissel Kobe away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Kashiwa Reysol, 1.27 for Vissel Kobe. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 10:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VIS 0–0 KAS · KAS 1–3 VIS · KAS 1–1 VIS · VIS 0–1 KAS

Form · last six in J1 League

KASHIWA REYSOL

WWLLWW4–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 4–2

VISSEL KOBE

LWWWWW0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vissel Kobe	8	+7	19
2	Kashiwa Reysol	8	+5	18
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	8	+14	17
4	Machida Zelvia	8	+11	17
5	FC Tokyo	8	+6	17
6	Yokohama F. Marinos	8	+4	14
7	Kawasaki Frontale	8	+4	13
8	Kashima	8	+1	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	8	+1	13
10	Urawa	8	−2	12
11	Cerezo Osaka	8	−5	11
12	Shimizu S-pulse	8	−2	10
13	Mito Hollyhock	8	0	9
14	Kyoto Sanga	8	−4	8
15	V-varen Nagasaki	8	−5	8
16	Gamba Osaka	8	−6	6
17	Nagoya Grampus	8	−7	6
18	Avispa Fukuoka	8	−3	4
19	Tokyo Verdy	8	−8	4
20	JEF United Chiba	8	−11	4