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Kashima v V-varen Nagasaki

Kashima
2–0Full time
V-varen Nagasaki

J1 League · SAT 17 OCT · Mercari Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 09:32
Kashima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki KASHIMA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Kashima win60%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.239
The market’s Brier score0.213

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kashima win at 60%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Kashima 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Kashima v V-varen Nagasaki
  4. 3′Léo Ceará scores for Kashima on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
  5. 3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Kashima 1–0 V-varen Nagasaki · Léo Ceará (penalty)
  6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Kashima win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
  7. 4′We said Kashima at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
  8. 5′We said Kashima at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–4–1
  9. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Kashima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki
  10. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Kashima win: 60% at kick-off, 94% now
  11. 6′5′: Aleksandar Čavrić on the scoresheet for Kashima, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–1
  12. 12′We said Kashima at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  13. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Tenmu Matsumoto · V-varen Nagasaki
  14. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Jonathan Junior · V-varen Nagasaki
  15. 45′V-varen Nagasaki have had 9 attempts to 3 and it is still 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
  16. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kashima · On: Ryoya Ogawa · Off: Sho Omori
  17. 45′SECOND HALF Kashima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki
  18. 48′HALF-TIME Kashima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki
  19. 53′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 2–0 · 97–2–0
  20. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Kenshin Yasuda · Off: Tenmu Matsumoto
  21. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Kashima · On: Yuta Matsumura · Off: José Élber Pimentel da Silva
  22. 64′V-varen Nagasaki have had 13 attempts to 4 and it is still 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  23. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Ryosuke Shindo · Off: Ikki Arai
  24. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Ryogo Yamasaki · Off: Jonathan Junior
  25. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Kashima · On: Kento Misao · Off: Gaku Shibasaki
  26. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Kashima · On: Yuma Suzuki · Off: Aleksandar Čavrić
  27. 79′We said Kashima at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  28. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Kashima win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
  29. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Kenshin Yasuda · V-varen Nagasaki
  30. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Kashima · On: Homare Tokuda · Off: Léo Ceará
  31. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Hijiri Onaga · Off: Asahi Masuyama
  32. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Takashi Sawada · Off: Hotaru Yamaguchi
  33. 93′2–0 at the end. Our 60% on Kashima comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  34. FTFULL TIME Kashima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki
  35. FTKashima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki · Kashima win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kashima are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kashima 60%, draw 22%, V-varen Nagasaki 18%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Kashima v V-varen NagasakiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kashima win60%
Draw22%
V-varen Nagasaki win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 07:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueMercari Stadium

RefereeHiroki Kasahara

Line-ups

Kashima

4-4-2

V-varen Nagasaki

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kashima

V-varen Nagasaki

4Days since last match6

Last match: 13 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

Last match: 11 Oct · J1 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Kashima9+316
14V-varen Nagasaki9−59

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kashima

4-4-2

1 T. Hayakawa

23 K. Tsukui

55 N. Ueda

5 I. Sekigawa

19 S. Omori

24 H. Hayashu

10 G. Shibasaki

8 Matheus Bueno

17 Elber

9 Leo Ceara

77 A. Cavric

Coach · Toru Oniki

Substitutes

21 · T. Yamada

7 · R. Ogawa

3 · Kim Tae-Hyeon

35 · A. Motosuna

6 · K. Misao

27 · Y. Matsumura

40 · Y. Suzuki

34 · H. Tokuda

30 · M. Yoshida

V-varen Nagasaki

3-4-2-1

1 M. Goto

25 T. Ominami

29 I. Arai

31 K. Doi

88 A. Masuyama

5 H. Yamaguchi

41 M. Hasegawa

23 S. Yoneda

10 Matheus Jesus

34 T. Matsumoto

99 Jonathan Junior

Coach · Takuya Takagi

Substitutes

13 · G. Hatano

22 · H. Onaga

50 · R. Shindo

21 · Diego Pituca

24 · R. Yamada

7 · K. Yasuda

18 · R. Yamasaki

8 · Y. Iwasaki

19 · T. Sawada

Our number · kashima winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
60% The market62%
Us60%
Market62%

We make Kashima a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kashima v V-varen Nagasaki1.89 – 0.91
Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 29 AugW2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 16 v 96 v 14
The market · Kashima win62% · ours 60%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 11 OCT 04:0317 OCT 06:38
Our probability · Kashima win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kashima win60%62%−2
Draw22%22%0
V-varen Nagasaki win18%16%+2
Over 2.5 goals53%55%−2
Both teams to score50%52%−2
Over 1.5 goals77%77%0
Over 3.5 goals31%34%−3
Kashima or draw82%84%−2
Kashima clean sheet40%––
V-varen Nagasaki clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%
0123450 6.3 5.5 2.6 1 11.5 10.4 4.7 2 10.8 9.7 4.4 3 6.8 6.1 2.8 4 3.3 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kashima down, V-varen Nagasaki across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsKAS 2–1 VVA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 29 Aug

KASHIMA

WLLLDW2–0 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 2–0

V-VAREN NAGASAKI

LDLWDD0–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kashiwa Reysol9+721
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima9+1620
3Machida Zelvia9+1220
4FC Tokyo9+920
5Vissel Kobe9+519
6Kashima9+316
7Yokohama F. Marinos9+415
8Kawasaki Frontale9+313
9Fagiano Okayama9013
10Shimizu S-pulse9−113
11Urawa9−512
12Cerezo Osaka9−512
13Mito Hollyhock9−19
14V-varen Nagasaki9−59
15Nagoya Grampus9−69
16Kyoto Sanga9−58
17Avispa Fukuoka9−27
18Gamba Osaka9−86
19JEF United Chiba9−115
20Tokyo Verdy9−104

The competition's standings before kick-off.