

Kashima v V-varen Nagasaki
Kashima
V-varen NagasakiJ1 League · SAT 17 OCT · Mercari Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Kashima win at 60%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Kashima 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
- 1′KICK-OFF Kashima v V-varen Nagasaki
- 3′Léo Ceará scores for Kashima on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
- 3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Kashima 1–0 V-varen Nagasaki · Léo Ceará (penalty)
- 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Kashima win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
- 4′We said Kashima at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
- 5′We said Kashima at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–4–1
- 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Kashima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki
- 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Kashima win: 60% at kick-off, 94% now
- 6′5′: Aleksandar Čavrić on the scoresheet for Kashima, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–1
- 12′We said Kashima at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Tenmu Matsumoto · V-varen Nagasaki
- 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Jonathan Junior · V-varen Nagasaki
- 45′V-varen Nagasaki have had 9 attempts to 3 and it is still 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kashima · On: Ryoya Ogawa · Off: Sho Omori
- 45′SECOND HALF Kashima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki
- 48′HALF-TIME Kashima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki
- 53′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 2–0 · 97–2–0
- 54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Kenshin Yasuda · Off: Tenmu Matsumoto
- 56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Kashima · On: Yuta Matsumura · Off: José Élber Pimentel da Silva
- 64′V-varen Nagasaki have had 13 attempts to 4 and it is still 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Ryosuke Shindo · Off: Ikki Arai
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Ryogo Yamasaki · Off: Jonathan Junior
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Kashima · On: Kento Misao · Off: Gaku Shibasaki
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Kashima · On: Yuma Suzuki · Off: Aleksandar Čavrić
- 79′We said Kashima at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Kashima win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Kenshin Yasuda · V-varen Nagasaki
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Kashima · On: Homare Tokuda · Off: Léo Ceará
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Hijiri Onaga · Off: Asahi Masuyama
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Takashi Sawada · Off: Hotaru Yamaguchi
- 93′2–0 at the end. Our 60% on Kashima comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Kashima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki
- FTKashima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki · Kashima win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassKashima are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Kashima 60%, draw 22%, V-varen Nagasaki 18%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 50%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Kashima win60%
V-varen Nagasaki win18%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 07:00
RoundMatchday 10
VenueMercari Stadium
RefereeHiroki Kasahara
Match timeline
All events
KashimaMIN
V-varen NagasakiEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Kashima
4-4-2
V-varen Nagasaki
3-4-2-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Kashima
V-varen Nagasaki
Last match: 13 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite
Last match: 11 Oct · J1 League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Kashima
4-4-2
1 T. Hayakawa
23 K. Tsukui
55 N. Ueda
5 I. Sekigawa
19 S. Omori
24 H. Hayashu
10 G. Shibasaki
8 Matheus Bueno
17 Elber
9 Leo Ceara
77 A. Cavric
Coach · Toru Oniki
Substitutes
21 · T. Yamada
7 · R. Ogawa
3 · Kim Tae-Hyeon
35 · A. Motosuna
6 · K. Misao
27 · Y. Matsumura
40 · Y. Suzuki
34 · H. Tokuda
30 · M. Yoshida
V-varen Nagasaki
3-4-2-1
1 M. Goto
25 T. Ominami
29 I. Arai
31 K. Doi
88 A. Masuyama
5 H. Yamaguchi
41 M. Hasegawa
23 S. Yoneda
10 Matheus Jesus
34 T. Matsumoto
99 Jonathan Junior
Coach · Takuya Takagi
Substitutes
13 · G. Hatano
22 · H. Onaga
50 · R. Shindo
21 · Diego Pituca
24 · R. Yamada
7 · K. Yasuda
18 · R. Yamasaki
8 · Y. Iwasaki
19 · T. Sawada
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Kashima
4-4-2
1 T. Hayakawa
23 K. Tsukui
55 N. Ueda
5 I. Sekigawa
19 S. Omori
24 H. Hayashu
10 G. Shibasaki
8 Matheus Bueno
17 Elber
9 Leo Ceara
77 A. Cavric
Coach · Toru Oniki
Substitutes
21 · T. Yamada
7 · R. Ogawa
3 · Kim Tae-Hyeon
35 · A. Motosuna
6 · K. Misao
27 · Y. Matsumura
40 · Y. Suzuki
34 · H. Tokuda
30 · M. Yoshida
V-varen Nagasaki
3-4-2-1
1 M. Goto
25 T. Ominami
29 I. Arai
31 K. Doi
88 A. Masuyama
5 H. Yamaguchi
41 M. Hasegawa
23 S. Yoneda
10 Matheus Jesus
34 T. Matsumoto
99 Jonathan Junior
Coach · Takuya Takagi
Substitutes
13 · G. Hatano
22 · H. Onaga
50 · R. Shindo
21 · Diego Pituca
24 · R. Yamada
7 · K. Yasuda
18 · R. Yamasaki
8 · Y. Iwasaki
19 · T. Sawada
We make Kashima a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima win | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 0 |
| V-varen Nagasaki win | 18% | 16% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 34% | −3 |
| Kashima or draw | 82% | 84% | −2 |
| Kashima clean sheet | 40% | – | – |
| V-varen Nagasaki clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2022Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 29 Aug
KASHIMA
V-VAREN NAGASAKI
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | Kashima | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-pulse | 9 | −1 | 13 |
| 11 | Urawa | 9 | −5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | −5 | 12 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | −1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 9 | −5 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | −6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 9 | −5 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | −2 | 7 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | −8 | 6 |
| 19 | JEF United Chiba | 9 | −11 | 5 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 9 | −10 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Kashiwa Reysol
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Machida Zelvia
FC Tokyo
Vissel Kobe
Yokohama F. Marinos
Kawasaki Frontale
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
Urawa
Cerezo Osaka
Mito Hollyhock
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
Avispa Fukuoka
Gamba Osaka
JEF United Chiba
Tokyo Verdy