Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol prediction · J1 League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 10:03

Kashima 2–3 Kashiwa Reysol KASHIMA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kashima win~~49%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.854

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.713

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kashima win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kashima was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
1′KICK-OFF Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol
13′We published Kashima at 49%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Kashima 1–0 Kashiwa Reysol
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Kashima win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
14′We published Kashima at 49%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–9
15′A goal for Kashima on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–7
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Kashima 1–1 Kashiwa Reysol
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Kashima win: 49% at kick-off, 42% now
35′35′: Keita Endo on the scoresheet for Kashiwa Reysol, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 42–34–24
38′7 shots for Kashima, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 41–35–24
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Nobuteru Nakagawa · Kashiwa Reysol
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Kashima win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kashima · On: Aleksandar Čavrić · Off: Homare Tokuda
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kashiwa Reysol · On: Mao Hosoya · Off: Yuki Kakita
45′SECOND HALF Kashima 1–2 Kashiwa Reysol
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kashima · On: Ryuta Koike · Off: Keisuke Tsukui
46′We said Kashima at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–2 · 12–26–62
46′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 13–26–62
46′Kashiwa Reysol ahead on 45′ through Hinata Yamauchi. 1–2. 1–2 · 13–26–62
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Kashima 1–2 Kashiwa Reysol
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Kashima win: 49% at kick-off, 12% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Kashiwa Reysol win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Kashima win 39%)
46′HALF-TIME Kashima 1–2 Kashiwa Reysol
52′Kashima have had 12 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 10–25–64
52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Kashiwa Reysol · On: Tojiro Kubo · Off: Shusuke Furuya
55′We said Kashima at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–66
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Kashima win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
58′We said Kashima at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–7–92
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Kashima 1–3 Kashiwa Reysol
60′Hinata Yamauchi scores for Kashiwa Reysol on 59′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–6–92
60′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–6–92
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Kashiwa Reysol · On: Tojiro Kubo · Off: Keita Endo Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Kashiwa Reysol · On: Yusuke Segawa · Off: Hinata Yamauchi
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Kashima · On: José Élber Pimentel da Silva · Off: Haruki Hayashi
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Kashima · On: Matheus Bueno · Off: Gaku Shibasaki
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Kim Tae-hyeon · Kashima
77′Kashima have had 16 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Kashima · On: Minato Yoshida · Off: Ryoya Ogawa
88′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–6–93
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Kashima 2–3 Kashiwa Reysol
89′88′: Aleksandar Čavrić on the scoresheet for Kashima, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–6–94
90′21 shots for Kashima, 11 the other way, and they still trail 2–3. 2–3 · 0–5–95
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Kashiwa Reysol · On: Yudai Konishi · Off: Sachiro Toshima
99′Full time, 2–3. We called Kashima at 49% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Kashima 2–3 Kashiwa Reysol
FTKashima 2–3 Kashiwa Reysol · Kashima win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kashima are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kashima 49%, draw 25%, Kashiwa Reysol 26%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Kashima v Kashiwa ReysolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kashima win49%

Draw25%

Kashiwa Reysol win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 07:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueMercari Stadium

Line-ups

Kashima

4-4-2

Kashiwa Reysol

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kashima

Kashiwa Reysol

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Kashiwa Reysol	11	+5	22
6	Kashima	11	+5	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kashima

4-4-2

1 T. Hayakawa

23 K. Tsukui

3 Kim Tae-Hyeon

7 R. Ogawa

6 K. Misao

10 G. Shibasaki

40 Y. Suzuki

27 Y. Matsumura

34 H. Tokuda

5 I. Sekigawa

8 Matheus Bueno

Coach · T. Oniki

Substitutes

30 · M. Yoshida

77 · A. Čavrić

17 · Élber

14 · Y. Higuchi

25 · R. Koike

35 · A. Motosuna

21 · T. Yamada

Kashiwa Reysol

3-4-2-1

29 K. Nagai

42 W. Harada

4 T. Koga

26 D. Sugioka

30 Shusuke Furuya

28 S. Toshima

39 N. Nakagawa

5 K. Endo

8 Y. Koizumi

87 H. Yamauchi

18 Y. Kakita

Coach · Ricardo Rodríguez

Substitutes

24 · T. Kubo

2 · H. Mitsumaru

1 · H. Saruta

20 · Y. Segawa

32 · Y. Yamanouchi

44 · K. Yuba

21 · Y. Konishi

9 · M. Hosoya

40 · R. Harakawa

Our number · kashima winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

49% The market42%

Us49%

~~Market~~42%

We make Kashima a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol~~1.61 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 22~~6 v 5

~~The market · Kashima win~~42% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kashima win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kashima win	49%	42%	+7
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Kashiwa Reysol win	26%	32%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	51%	54%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	58%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Kashima or draw	74%	68%	+6
Kashima clean sheet	34%	–	–
Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.0 7.2 4.0 1 10.6 11.9 6.4 2.4 2 8.6 9.4 5.1 3 4.7 5.0 2.8 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kashima down, Kashiwa Reysol across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,682 J1 League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kashima at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kashiwa Reysol away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Kashima, 1.10 for Kashiwa Reysol. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 06:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~Kashiwa Reysol 0–1 Kashima · Kashima 2–0 Kashiwa Reysol · Kashima 3–2 Kashiwa Reysol · Kashiwa Reysol 1–3 Kashima

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept

KASHIMA

LLDWWD0–1 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–2

KASHIWA REYSOL

LWWWLD0–2 · 3–2 · 4–2 · 4–2 · 1–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Machida Zelvia	11	+20	26
2	FC Tokyo	11	+13	24
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	11	+15	23
4	Vissel Kobe	11	+7	22
5	Kashiwa Reysol	11	+5	22
6	Kashima	11	+5	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	+6	19
8	Urawa	11	−3	18
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	11	+4	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	−1	16
11	Shimizu S-pulse	11	−6	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	−4	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	−7	13
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	−3	12
15	Gamba Osaka	11	−7	10
16	Mito Hollyhock	11	−4	9
17	Kyoto Sanga	11	−8	9
18	Avispa Fukuoka	11	−6	7
19	JEF United Chiba	11	−12	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	11	−14	5