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Kashima v Gamba Osaka

Kashima

2–0Full time

Gamba Osaka

J1 League · FRI 9 OCT · Mercari Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 13:31

Kashima 2–0 Gamba Osaka KASHIMA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kashima win~~54%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.321

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.297

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kashima win54%

Draw23%

Gamba Osaka win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 11:00

Venue · Mercari Stadium

Referee · Takafumi Mikuriya

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Kashima

4-4-2

1 Tomoki Hayakawa

37 Rikuto Hirose

55 Naomichi Ueda

3 Kim Tae-hyeon

7 Ryoya Ogawa

27 Yuta Matsumura

6 Kento Misao

10 Gaku Shibasaki

30 Minato Yoshida

40 Yuma Suzuki

9 Léo Ceará

Coach · Toru Oniki

Substitutes

23 · Keisuke Tsukui

77 · Aleksandar Čavrić

8 · Matheus Bueno

24 · Haruki Hayashi

34 · Homare Tokuda

21 · Taiki Yamada

4 · Kaito Chida

19 · Sho Omori

17 · Élber

Gamba Osaka

4-2-3-1

22 Jun Ichimori

28 Soya Fujiwara

4 Shinnosuke Nakatani

2 Shota Fukuoka

21 Ryo Hatsuse

13 Shuto Abe

27 Rin Mito

17 Ryoya Yamashita

7 Takashi Usami

97 Welton

41 Yusei Toshida

Coach · Tomokazu Myojin

Substitutes

11 · Issam Jebali

23 · Deniz Hümmet

47 · Shinya Nakano

39 · Koshiro Sumi

15 · Takeru Kishimoto

18 · Rui Araki

67 · Shogo Sasaki

16 · Tokuma Suzuki

8 · Ryotaro Meshino

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kashima

4-4-2

1 Tomoki Hayakawa

37 Rikuto Hirose

55 Naomichi Ueda

3 Kim Tae-hyeon

7 Ryoya Ogawa

27 Yuta Matsumura

6 Kento Misao

10 Gaku Shibasaki

30 Minato Yoshida

40 Yuma Suzuki

9 Léo Ceará

Coach · Toru Oniki

Substitutes

23 · Keisuke Tsukui

77 · Aleksandar Čavrić

8 · Matheus Bueno

24 · Haruki Hayashi

34 · Homare Tokuda

21 · Taiki Yamada

4 · Kaito Chida

19 · Sho Omori

17 · Élber

Gamba Osaka

4-2-3-1

22 Jun Ichimori

28 Soya Fujiwara

4 Shinnosuke Nakatani

2 Shota Fukuoka

21 Ryo Hatsuse

13 Shuto Abe

27 Rin Mito

17 Ryoya Yamashita

7 Takashi Usami

97 Welton

41 Yusei Toshida

Coach · Tomokazu Myojin

Substitutes

11 · Issam Jebali

23 · Deniz Hümmet

47 · Shinya Nakano

39 · Koshiro Sumi

15 · Takeru Kishimoto

18 · Rui Araki

67 · Shogo Sasaki

16 · Tokuma Suzuki

8 · Ryotaro Meshino

Our number · kashima winPublished 9 Oct 11:02

54% The market56%

Us54%

~~Market~~56%

We make Kashima a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kashima win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kashima win	54%	56%	−2
Draw	23%	24%	0
Gamba Osaka win	23%	21%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	60%	−6
Both teams to score	54%	59%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	81%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	31%	40%	−8
Kashima or draw	77%	79%	−2
Kashima clean sheet	35%	–	–
Gamba Osaka clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.1 6.3 3.4 1 10.5 11.0 5.8 2.1 2 9.2 9.6 5.1 3 5.4 5.7 3.0 4 2.4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kashima down, Gamba Osaka across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,652 J1 League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 1.88 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kashima at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gamba Osaka away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Kashima, 1.06 for Gamba Osaka. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 10:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KAS 0–0 GAM · GAM 0–1 KAS · KAS 0–0 GAM · GAM 1–2 KAS

Form · last six in J1 League

KASHIMA

WWLLLD3–2 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–3

GAMBA OSAKA

LDDLLL1–3 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vissel Kobe	8	+7	19
2	Kashiwa Reysol	8	+5	18
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	8	+14	17
4	Machida Zelvia	8	+11	17
5	FC Tokyo	8	+6	17
6	Yokohama F. Marinos	8	+4	14
7	Kawasaki Frontale	8	+4	13
8	Kashima	8	+1	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	8	+1	13
10	Urawa	8	−2	12
11	Cerezo Osaka	8	−5	11
12	Shimizu S-pulse	8	−2	10
13	Mito Hollyhock	8	0	9
14	Kyoto Sanga	8	−4	8
15	V-varen Nagasaki	8	−5	8
16	Gamba Osaka	8	−6	6
17	Nagoya Grampus	8	−7	6
18	Avispa Fukuoka	8	−3	4
19	Tokyo Verdy	8	−8	4
20	JEF United Chiba	8	−11	4