Kashima v Cerezo Osaka prediction · J1 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KashimaDrawCerezo Osaka

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 06:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kashima 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kashima are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kashima 53%, draw 24%, Cerezo Osaka 23%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Kashima v Cerezo OsakaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Kashima win53%

Draw24%

Cerezo Osaka win23%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueMercari Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kashima

Cerezo Osaka

7Days since last match10

Last match: 24 Oct · J1 League

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Kashima	12	+4	20
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	−7	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kashima winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Kashima a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kashima v Cerezo Osaka~~1.72 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 13~~6 v 13

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kashima win	53%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Cerezo Osaka win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Kashima or draw	77%	–	–
Kashima clean sheet	35%	–	–
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.5 6.4 3.5 1 10.5 11.4 5.9 2.1 2 9.1 9.6 5.1 3 5.3 5.5 2.9 4 2.3 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kashima down, Cerezo Osaka across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,687 J1 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kashima at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Cerezo Osaka away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Kashima, 1.06 for Cerezo Osaka. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KAS 3–1 CER · CER 1–0 KAS · CER 0–2 KAS · KAS 1–1 CER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept

KASHIMA

LDWWDL1–2 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–3

CEREZO OSAKA

DLDDLD0–0 · 1–6 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Machida Zelvia	12	+20	27
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	+19	26
3	Kashiwa Reysol	12	+6	25
4	FC Tokyo	11	+13	24
5	Vissel Kobe	12	+7	23
6	Kashima	12	+4	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	+6	19
8	Urawa	11	−3	18
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	11	+4	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	−1	16
11	Shimizu S-pulse	12	−10	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	−4	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	−7	13
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	−3	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	−7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	−8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	11	−4	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	−12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	−8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	11	−12	6