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JEF United Chiba v Yokohama F. Marinos

JEF United Chiba
0–0Full time
Yokohama F. Marinos

J1 League · SAT 17 OCT · Fukuda Denshi Arena

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 08:31
JEF United Chiba 0–0 Yokohama F. Marinos YOKOHAMA F. MARINOS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Yokohama F. Marinos win50%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.907
The market’s Brier score0.835

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Yokohama F. Marinos win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Yokohama F. Marinos was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 27–24–50
  3. 1′KICK-OFF JEF United Chiba v Yokohama F. Marinos
  4. 13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Tomoki Kondo · Yokohama F. Marinos
  5. 40′JEF United Chiba have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 25–34–41
  6. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
  7. 44′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 60–25–15
  8. 44′JEF United Chiba ahead on 44′ through Takumi Tsukui. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–25–15
  9. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' JEF United Chiba 1–0 Yokohama F. Marinos
  10. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 50% at kick-off, 15% now
  11. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' JEF United Chiba win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Yokohama F. Marinos win 15%)
  12. 45′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–25–14
  13. 45′HALF-TIME JEF United Chiba 0–0 Yokohama F. Marinos
  14. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' JEF United Chiba · On: Takayuki Mae · Off: Rikuto Ishio
  15. 46′SECOND HALF JEF United Chiba 0–0 Yokohama F. Marinos
  16. 47′GOAL DISALLOWED · 44' Takumi Tsukui · JEF United Chiba
  17. 48′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 24–38–38
  18. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 50% at kick-off, 38% now
  19. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was JEF United Chiba win 23%)
  20. 55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 22–42–35
  21. 57′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 22–44–34
  22. 59′13 shots for JEF United Chiba, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 21–45–33
  23. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Kei Chinen · Off: Riku Yamane
  24. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Tevis Gabriel Alves Santos · Off: Jun Amano
  25. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' JEF United Chiba · On: Kazuki Tanaka · Off: Naohiro Sugiyama
  26. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
  27. 66′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 19–52–29
  28. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Takayuki Mae · JEF United Chiba
  29. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Jordy Croux · Off: Tomoki Kondo
  30. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Taisei Inoue · Off: Takuto Kimura
  31. 72′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–60–24
  32. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' JEF United Chiba · On: Yusuke Kobayashi · Off: Luiz Eduardo Fleuri Pacheco
  33. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' JEF United Chiba · On: Taishi Taguchi · Off: Takuya Yasui
  34. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Toichi Suzuki · Yokohama F. Marinos
  35. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  36. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Boniface Nduka · JEF United Chiba
  37. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' JEF United Chiba · On: Hiroto Goya · Off: Ken Yamura
  38. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Rio Nitta · Off: Ryo Miyaichi
  39. 84′JEF United Chiba have had 16 attempts to 10 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 7–83–10
  40. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
  41. 86′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
  42. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Taishi Taguchi · JEF United Chiba
  43. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Jordy Croux · Yokohama F. Marinos
  44. 92′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–94–4
  45. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Erison Danilo de Souza · JEF United Chiba
  46. FTFULL TIME JEF United Chiba 0–0 Yokohama F. Marinos
  47. FTJEF United Chiba 0–0 Yokohama F. Marinos · Yokohama F. Marinos win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yokohama F. Marinos are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: JEF United Chiba 27%, draw 23%, Yokohama F. Marinos 50%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on JEF United Chiba v Yokohama F. MarinosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

JEF United Chiba win27%
Draw23%
Yokohama F. Marinos win50%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueFukuda Denshi Arena

RefereeFutoshi Nakamura

Line-ups

JEF United Chiba

4-4-2

Yokohama F. Marinos

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

JEF United Chiba

Yokohama F. Marinos

6Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · J1 League

Last match: 14 Oct · J-League Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Yokohama F. Marinos9+415
19JEF United Chiba9−115

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

JEF United Chiba

4-4-2

19 J. Suarez

39 R. Ishio

13 D. Suzuki

2 B. Nduka

67 M. Hidaka

18 N. Sugiyama

6 Eduardo

41 T. Yasui

8 T. Tsukui

99 Erison

29 K. Yamura

Coach · Yoshiyuki Kobayashi

Substitutes

23 · R. Suzuki

24 · K. Toriumi

15 · T. Mae

5 · Y. Kobayashi

7 · K. Tanaka

4 · T. Taguchi

37 · M. Himeno

9 · H. Goya

30 · T. Matsumura

Yokohama F. Marinos

4-2-3-1

1 Park Il-gyu

34 T. Kimura

17 J. Quinones

33 K. Suwama

25 T. Suzuki

28 R. Yamane

41 K. Matsumura

24 T. Kondo

40 J. Amano

23 R. Miyaichi

9 K. Tanimura

Coach · Steve Corica

Substitutes

20 · Y. Tsuboi

44 · T. Deng

13 · T. Inoue

14 · K. Chinen

18 · G. Onaiwu

8 · T. Kida

11 · J. Croux

19 · Tevis

43 · R. Nitta

Our number · yokohama f. marinos winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
50% The market47%
Us50%
Market47%

We make Yokohama F. Marinos a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · JEF United Chiba v Yokohama F. Marinos1.25 – 1.78
Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 29 AugW1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 5 v 1519 v 7
The market · Yokohama F. Marinos win47% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0317 OCT 05:24
Our probability · Yokohama F. Marinos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
JEF United Chiba win27%26%+1
Draw23%26%−3
Yokohama F. Marinos win50%47%+3
Over 2.5 goals58%51%+7
Both teams to score59%55%+4
Over 1.5 goals80%74%+6
Over 3.5 goals36%30%+6
JEF United Chiba or draw50%53%−3
JEF United Chiba clean sheet17%––
Yokohama F. Marinos clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%
0123450 5.0 8.6 7.6 4.5 2.0 1 6.1 10.8 9.4 5.6 2.5 2 3.8 6.7 5.9 3.5 3 2.8 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+JEF United Chiba down, Yokohama F. Marinos across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsJEF 2–3 YOK · YOK 2–0 JEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 29 Aug

JEF UNITED CHIBA

LLWDLD2–4 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

YOKOHAMA F. MARINOS

LDWDWD2–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kashiwa Reysol9+721
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima9+1620
3Machida Zelvia9+1220
4FC Tokyo9+920
5Vissel Kobe9+519
6Kashima9+316
7Yokohama F. Marinos9+415
8Kawasaki Frontale9+313
9Fagiano Okayama9013
10Shimizu S-pulse9−113
11Urawa9−512
12Cerezo Osaka9−512
13Mito Hollyhock9−19
14V-varen Nagasaki9−59
15Nagoya Grampus9−69
16Kyoto Sanga9−58
17Avispa Fukuoka9−27
18Gamba Osaka9−86
19JEF United Chiba9−115
20Tokyo Verdy9−104

The competition's standings before kick-off.