

JEF United Chiba v Yokohama F. Marinos
JEF United Chiba
Yokohama F. MarinosJ1 League · SAT 17 OCT · Fukuda Denshi Arena
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Yokohama F. Marinos win at 50%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Yokohama F. Marinos was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 27–24–50
- 1′KICK-OFF JEF United Chiba v Yokohama F. Marinos
- 13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Tomoki Kondo · Yokohama F. Marinos
- 40′JEF United Chiba have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 25–34–41
- 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
- 44′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 60–25–15
- 44′JEF United Chiba ahead on 44′ through Takumi Tsukui. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–25–15
- 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' JEF United Chiba 1–0 Yokohama F. Marinos
- 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 50% at kick-off, 15% now
- 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' JEF United Chiba win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Yokohama F. Marinos win 15%)
- 45′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–25–14
- 45′HALF-TIME JEF United Chiba 0–0 Yokohama F. Marinos
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' JEF United Chiba · On: Takayuki Mae · Off: Rikuto Ishio
- 46′SECOND HALF JEF United Chiba 0–0 Yokohama F. Marinos
- 47′GOAL DISALLOWED · 44' Takumi Tsukui · JEF United Chiba
- 48′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 24–38–38
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 50% at kick-off, 38% now
- 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was JEF United Chiba win 23%)
- 55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 22–42–35
- 57′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 22–44–34
- 59′13 shots for JEF United Chiba, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 21–45–33
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Kei Chinen · Off: Riku Yamane
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Tevis Gabriel Alves Santos · Off: Jun Amano
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' JEF United Chiba · On: Kazuki Tanaka · Off: Naohiro Sugiyama
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
- 66′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 19–52–29
- 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Takayuki Mae · JEF United Chiba
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Jordy Croux · Off: Tomoki Kondo
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Taisei Inoue · Off: Takuto Kimura
- 72′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–60–24
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' JEF United Chiba · On: Yusuke Kobayashi · Off: Luiz Eduardo Fleuri Pacheco
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' JEF United Chiba · On: Taishi Taguchi · Off: Takuya Yasui
- 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Toichi Suzuki · Yokohama F. Marinos
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
- 76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Boniface Nduka · JEF United Chiba
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' JEF United Chiba · On: Hiroto Goya · Off: Ken Yamura
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Rio Nitta · Off: Ryo Miyaichi
- 84′JEF United Chiba have had 16 attempts to 10 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 7–83–10
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Yokohama F. Marinos win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
- 86′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
- 89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Taishi Taguchi · JEF United Chiba
- 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Jordy Croux · Yokohama F. Marinos
- 92′We said Yokohama F. Marinos at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–94–4
- 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Erison Danilo de Souza · JEF United Chiba
- FTFULL TIME JEF United Chiba 0–0 Yokohama F. Marinos
- FTJEF United Chiba 0–0 Yokohama F. Marinos · Yokohama F. Marinos win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassYokohama F. Marinos are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: JEF United Chiba 27%, draw 23%, Yokohama F. Marinos 50%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
JEF United Chiba win27%
Yokohama F. Marinos win50%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 06:00
RoundMatchday 10
VenueFukuda Denshi Arena
RefereeFutoshi Nakamura
Match timeline
All events
JEF United ChibaMIN
Yokohama F. MarinosEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
JEF United Chiba
4-4-2
Yokohama F. Marinos
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
JEF United Chiba
Yokohama F. Marinos
Last match: 11 Oct · J1 League
Last match: 14 Oct · J-League Cup
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
JEF United Chiba
4-4-2
19 J. Suarez
39 R. Ishio
13 D. Suzuki
2 B. Nduka
67 M. Hidaka
18 N. Sugiyama
6 Eduardo
41 T. Yasui
8 T. Tsukui
99 Erison
29 K. Yamura
Coach · Yoshiyuki Kobayashi
Substitutes
23 · R. Suzuki
24 · K. Toriumi
15 · T. Mae
5 · Y. Kobayashi
7 · K. Tanaka
4 · T. Taguchi
37 · M. Himeno
9 · H. Goya
30 · T. Matsumura
Yokohama F. Marinos
4-2-3-1
1 Park Il-gyu
34 T. Kimura
17 J. Quinones
33 K. Suwama
25 T. Suzuki
28 R. Yamane
41 K. Matsumura
24 T. Kondo
40 J. Amano
23 R. Miyaichi
9 K. Tanimura
Coach · Steve Corica
Substitutes
20 · Y. Tsuboi
44 · T. Deng
13 · T. Inoue
14 · K. Chinen
18 · G. Onaiwu
8 · T. Kida
11 · J. Croux
19 · Tevis
43 · R. Nitta
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
JEF United Chiba
4-4-2
19 J. Suarez
39 R. Ishio
13 D. Suzuki
2 B. Nduka
67 M. Hidaka
18 N. Sugiyama
6 Eduardo
41 T. Yasui
8 T. Tsukui
99 Erison
29 K. Yamura
Coach · Yoshiyuki Kobayashi
Substitutes
23 · R. Suzuki
24 · K. Toriumi
15 · T. Mae
5 · Y. Kobayashi
7 · K. Tanaka
4 · T. Taguchi
37 · M. Himeno
9 · H. Goya
30 · T. Matsumura
Yokohama F. Marinos
4-2-3-1
1 Park Il-gyu
34 T. Kimura
17 J. Quinones
33 K. Suwama
25 T. Suzuki
28 R. Yamane
41 K. Matsumura
24 T. Kondo
40 J. Amano
23 R. Miyaichi
9 K. Tanimura
Coach · Steve Corica
Substitutes
20 · Y. Tsuboi
44 · T. Deng
13 · T. Inoue
14 · K. Chinen
18 · G. Onaiwu
8 · T. Kida
11 · J. Croux
19 · Tevis
43 · R. Nitta
We make Yokohama F. Marinos a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| JEF United Chiba win | 27% | 26% | +1 |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | −3 |
| Yokohama F. Marinos win | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 74% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 30% | +6 |
| JEF United Chiba or draw | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| JEF United Chiba clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
| Yokohama F. Marinos clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2022Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 29 Aug
JEF UNITED CHIBA
YOKOHAMA F. MARINOS
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | Kashima | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-pulse | 9 | −1 | 13 |
| 11 | Urawa | 9 | −5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | −5 | 12 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | −1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 9 | −5 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | −6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 9 | −5 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | −2 | 7 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | −8 | 6 |
| 19 | JEF United Chiba | 9 | −11 | 5 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 9 | −10 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Kashiwa Reysol
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Machida Zelvia
FC Tokyo
Vissel Kobe
Kashima
Kawasaki Frontale
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
Urawa
Cerezo Osaka
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
Avispa Fukuoka
Gamba Osaka
Tokyo Verdy