JEF United Chiba v V-varen Nagasaki prediction · J1 League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 08:33

JEF United Chiba 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki JEF UNITED CHIBA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said JEF United Chiba win~~38%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.840

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.771

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said JEF United Chiba win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: JEF United Chiba 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
1′KICK-OFF JEF United Chiba v V-varen Nagasaki
2′Little has changed for our model: JEF United Chiba 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
4′We said JEF United Chiba at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 63%. 1–0 · 63–20–17
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' JEF United Chiba 1–0 V-varen Nagasaki
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' JEF United Chiba win: 38% at kick-off, 63% now
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' JEF United Chiba win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
4′⚽ GOAL · 5' JEF United Chiba 1–0 V-varen Nagasaki
5′JEF United Chiba ahead on 5′ through Thiago Santana. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–20–16
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' JEF United Chiba win: 38% at kick-off, 63% now
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' JEF United Chiba win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
6′JEF United Chiba ahead on 5′ through Thiago Santana. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–20–16
8′We said JEF United Chiba at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 64%. 1–0 · 64–20–16
12′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Thiago Santana · V-varen Nagasaki
18′We said JEF United Chiba at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–21–14
19′We said JEF United Chiba at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–21–14
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–12
32′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 67–22–12
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' JEF United Chiba win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' JEF United Chiba win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Kenshin Yasuda · Off: Riku Yamada Corrected
45′SECOND HALF JEF United Chiba 1–0 V-varen Nagasaki
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Erison Danilo de Souza · JEF United Chiba
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' JEF United Chiba · On: Koki Yonekura · Off: Rikuto Ishio Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Takuma Ominami · Off: Ryosuke Shindo Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Yusei Egawa · Off: Kanta Doi Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' JEF United Chiba · On: Zain Issaka · Off: Naohiro Sugiyama Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' JEF United Chiba · On: Hiroto Goya · Off: Erison Danilo de Souza Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Jonathan Junior · Off: Thiago Santana Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' JEF United Chiba · On: Yusuke Kobayashi · Off: Takuya Yasui Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' V-varen Nagasaki · On: Tenmu Matsumoto · Off: Asahi Masuyama Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' JEF United Chiba · On: Daisuke Suzuki · Off: Masaru Hidaka Corrected
92′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Luiz Eduardo Fleuri Pacheco · JEF United Chiba
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' JEF United Chiba 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki · Thiago Santana
94′⚽ GOAL · 95' JEF United Chiba 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki · Kenshin Yasuda
FTFULL TIME JEF United Chiba 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki
FTJEF United Chiba 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki · JEF United Chiba win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

JEF United Chiba win38%

Draw25%

V-varen Nagasaki win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 06:00

VenueFukuda Denshi Arena

Line-ups

JEF United Chiba

4-4-2

V-varen Nagasaki

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

JEF United Chiba

V-varen Nagasaki

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	V-varen Nagasaki	8	−5	8
20	JEF United Chiba	8	−11	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

JEF United Chiba

4-4-2

19 J. Suarez

39 R. Ishio

28 T. Kawano

2 B. Nduka

67 M. Hidaka

18 N. Sugiyama

6 Eduardo

41 T. Yasui

8 T. Tsukui

99 Erison

29 K. Yamura

Coach · Yoshiyuki Kobayashi

Substitutes

23 · R. Suzuki

11 · K. Yonekura

13 · D. Suzuki

5 · Y. Kobayashi

7 · K. Tanaka

4 · T. Taguchi

37 · M. Himeno

9 · H. Goya

42 · Z. Issaka

V-varen Nagasaki

3-4-2-1

1 M. Goto

50 R. Shindo

29 I. Arai

31 K. Doi

88 A. Masuyama

5 H. Yamaguchi

24 R. Yamada

23 S. Yoneda

10 Matheus Jesus

41 M. Hasegawa

9 Thiago

Coach · Takuya Takagi

Substitutes

13 · G. Hatano

22 · H. Onaga

6 · Y. Egawa

25 · T. Ominami

21 · Diego Pituca

7 · K. Yasuda

34 · T. Matsumoto

18 · R. Yamasaki

99 · Jonathan Junior

Our number · jef united chiba winPublished 11 Oct 06:01

38% The market34%

Us38%

~~Market~~34%

We make JEF United Chiba a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
JEF United Chiba win	38%	34%	+3
Draw	25%	28%	−3
V-varen Nagasaki win	37%	37%	0
Over 2.5 goals	53%	49%	+4
Both teams to score	57%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	73%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	31%	28%	+3
JEF United Chiba or draw	63%	63%	0
JEF United Chiba clean sheet	25%	–	–
V-varen Nagasaki clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.2 8.4 5.9 2.8 1 8.4 11.8 8.2 3.9 2 6.0 8.3 5.8 2.7 3 2.8 3.9 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+JEF United Chiba down, V-varen Nagasaki across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,658 J1 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

JEF United Chiba at home: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). V-varen Nagasaki away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for JEF United Chiba, 1.40 for V-varen Nagasaki. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 05:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in J1 League

JEF UNITED CHIBA

LLLWDL0–2 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

V-VAREN NAGASAKI

LLDLWD2–4 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kashiwa Reysol	9	+7	21
2	Machida Zelvia	9	+12	20
3	FC Tokyo	9	+9	20
4	Vissel Kobe	9	+5	19
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	8	+14	17
6	Kashima	9	+3	16
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	9	+4	15
8	Kawasaki Frontale	8	+4	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	9	0	13
10	Urawa	9	−5	12
11	Cerezo Osaka	9	−5	12
12	Shimizu S-pulse	8	−2	10
13	Mito Hollyhock	8	0	9
14	Kyoto Sanga	9	−5	8
15	V-varen Nagasaki	8	−5	8
16	Avispa Fukuoka	9	−2	7
17	Nagoya Grampus	8	−7	6
18	Gamba Osaka	9	−8	6
19	Tokyo Verdy	8	−8	4
20	JEF United Chiba	8	−11	4