Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › J1 League › Gamba Osaka v Kyoto Sanga

Back
Japan flag

Gamba Osaka v Kyoto Sanga

Gamba Osaka
2–2Full time
Kyoto Sanga

J1 League · SAT 24 OCT · Panasonic Stadium Suita

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 10:34
Gamba Osaka 2–2 Kyoto Sanga GAMBA OSAKA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Gamba Osaka win44%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.856
The market’s Brier score0.863

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Gamba Osaka win at 44%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Gamba Osaka 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Gamba Osaka v Kyoto Sanga
  4. 31′Gamba Osaka find the net on 31′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–9
  5. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Gamba Osaka 1–0 Kyoto Sanga
  6. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Gamba Osaka win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
  7. 32′We said Gamba Osaka at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–9
  8. 33′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
  9. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Kyo Sato · Kyoto Sanga
  10. 39′Gamba Osaka have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 37–35–28
  11. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Gamba Osaka 1–1 Kyoto Sanga
  12. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Gamba Osaka win: 44% at kick-off, 37% now
  13. 40′Haruki Arai scores for Kyoto Sanga on 39′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 37–35–27
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Gamba Osaka 1–1 Kyoto Sanga
  15. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kyoto Sanga · On: Takumi Kato · Off: Weverton Silva de Andrade
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Gamba Osaka 1–1 Kyoto Sanga
  17. 47′8 shots for Gamba Osaka, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 35–39–26
  18. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Gamba Osaka win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
  19. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Gamba Osaka win 37%)
  20. 54′Gamba Osaka are down to ten from 53′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 32–43–25
  21. 54′🟥 RED CARD · 53' Jun Ichimori · Gamba Osaka
  22. 55′We said Gamba Osaka at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–44–24
  23. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Gamba Osaka · On: Masaaki Higashiguchi · Off: Koshiro Sumi
  24. 61′We said Gamba Osaka at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
  25. 65′We said Gamba Osaka at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 2–1 · 79–17–3
  26. 65′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–17–3
  27. 65′65′: Issam Jebali on the scoresheet for Gamba Osaka, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 79–17–3
  28. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Gamba Osaka 2–1 Kyoto Sanga
  29. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Gamba Osaka win: 44% at kick-off, 79% now
  30. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Gamba Osaka win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 51%)
  31. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Gamba Osaka · On: Shuto Abe · Off: Tokuma Suzuki
  32. 67′We said Gamba Osaka at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  33. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Gamba Osaka · On: Shogo Sasaki · Off: Takashi Usami
  34. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kyoto Sanga · On: Fuchi Honda · Off: Alex Souza
  35. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kyoto Sanga · On: Rafael Papagaio · Off: Hiroto Morooka
  36. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Gamba Osaka win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
  37. 75′We said Gamba Osaka at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  38. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Kyoto Sanga · On: Marco Túlio · Off: Yusuke Ishida
  39. 81′We said Gamba Osaka at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
  40. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kyoto Sanga · On: Ryosuke Yamanaka · Off: Kyo Sato
  41. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Gamba Osaka win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
  42. 88′We said Gamba Osaka at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  43. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Gamba Osaka · On: Ryo Hatsuse · Off: Rin Mito
  44. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Gamba Osaka · On: Ryotaro Meshino · Off: Ryoya Yamashita
  45. 92′We said Gamba Osaka at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 2–2 · 3–94–3
  46. 92′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 3–94–3
  47. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Gamba Osaka 2–2 Kyoto Sanga
  48. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Gamba Osaka win: 44% at kick-off, 3% now
  49. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Gamba Osaka win 97%)
  50. 93′Kyoto Sanga level it on 90′ through Takumi Kato. 2–2. 2–2 · 3–95–2
  51. FTFULL TIME Gamba Osaka 2–2 Kyoto Sanga
  52. FTGamba Osaka 2–2 Kyoto Sanga · Gamba Osaka win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gamba Osaka are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gamba Osaka 44%, draw 25%, Kyoto Sanga 31%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Gamba Osaka v Kyoto SangaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Gamba Osaka win44%
Draw25%
Kyoto Sanga win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 08:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenuePanasonic Stadium Suita

Line-ups

Gamba Osaka

4-2-3-1

Kyoto Sanga

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gamba Osaka

Kyoto Sanga

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
15Gamba Osaka11−710
17Kyoto Sanga11−89

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gamba Osaka

4-2-3-1

22 J. Ichimori

15 T. Kishimoto

4 S. Nakatani

2 S. Fukuoka

47 S. Nakano

16 T. Suzuki

27 R. Mito

17 R. Yamashita

11 I. Jebali

39 K. Sumi

7 T. Usami

Coach · Tomokazu Myojin

Substitutes

21 · R. Hatsuse

1 · M. Higashiguchi

67 · S. Sasaki

8 · R. Meshino

41 · Y. Toshida

13 · S. Abe

97 · Welton Felipe

20 · E. Adams

28 · S. Fujiwara

Kyoto Sanga

4-2-3-1

90 Halls

15 K. Nagata

40 Y. Ishida

50 Y. Suzuki

44 K. Sato

10 S. Fukuoka

43 Weverton

48 R. Nakano

24 H. Morooka

77 H. Arai

17 Alex Negueba

Coach · R. Popović

Substitutes

23 · T. Kato

1 · G. Ota

9 · Rafael Elias

62 · T. Shichi

5 · H. Tawiah

60 · R. Yamanaka

25 · Yoon Sung-Jun

99 · F. Honda

11 · Marco Túlio

Our number · gamba osaka winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
44% The market49%
Us44%
Market49%

We make Gamba Osaka a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Gamba Osaka v Kyoto Sanga1.59 – 1.28
Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 10 v 915 v 17
The market · Gamba Osaka win49% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 07:40
Our probability · Gamba Osaka win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Gamba Osaka win44%49%−5
Draw25%25%0
Kyoto Sanga win31%26%+5
Over 2.5 goals54%56%−2
Both teams to score57%58%−1
Over 1.5 goals78%77%+1
Over 3.5 goals32%35%−3
Gamba Osaka or draw69%74%−5
Gamba Osaka clean sheet28%––
Kyoto Sanga clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 6.0 7.2 4.7 2.0 1 8.9 11.6 7.3 3.1 2 7.2 9.0 5.8 2.5 3 3.8 4.8 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Gamba Osaka down, Kyoto Sanga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.40
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsKYO 1–1 GAM · GAM 2–0 KYO · KYO 3–1 GAM · GAM 2–1 KYO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept

GAMBA OSAKA

LLLLDW0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–1

KYOTO SANGA

LLWLLD0–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Machida Zelvia11+2026
2FC Tokyo11+1324
3Sanfrecce Hiroshima11+1523
4Vissel Kobe11+722
5Kashiwa Reysol11+522
6Kashima11+520
7Kawasaki Frontale11+619
8Urawa11−318
9Yokohama F. Marinos11+417
10Fagiano Okayama11−116
11Shimizu S-pulse11−614
12Nagoya Grampus11−413
13Cerezo Osaka11−713
14V-varen Nagasaki11−312
15Gamba Osaka11−710
16Mito Hollyhock11−49
17Kyoto Sanga11−89
18Avispa Fukuoka11−67
19JEF United Chiba11−126
20Tokyo Verdy11−145

The competition's standings before kick-off.