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FC Tokyo v Urawa

FC Tokyo

3–0Full time

Urawa

J1 League · SAT 10 OCT · Ajinomoto Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 09:34

FC Tokyo 3–0 Urawa FC TOKYO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Tokyo win~~42%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.502

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.299

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Tokyo win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Tokyo was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
1′KICK-OFF FC Tokyo v Urawa
20′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Marcelo · FC Tokyo
23′SUBSTITUTION · 24' Urawa · On: Ado Onaiwu · Off: Harumi Minamino Corrected
45′SECOND HALF FC Tokyo 0–0 Urawa
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Urawa · On: Ryoma Watanabe · Off: Tatsuki Seko Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Tokyo · On: Kein Sato · Off: Kota Tawaratsumida Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Tokyo · On: Rio Omori · Off: Kashif Bangnagande Corrected
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' FC Tokyo 1–0 Urawa
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' FC Tokyo 1–0 Urawa · Motoki Nagakura
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' FC Tokyo 2–0 Urawa · Motoki Nagakura
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' FC Tokyo 2–0 Urawa · Soma Anzai
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Urawa · On: Renji Hidano · Off: Kaito Yasui Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Urawa · On: Samuel Gustafson · Off: Hayate Ueki Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FC Tokyo · On: Fuki Yamada · Off: Hirokazu Ishihara Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FC Tokyo · On: Teruhito Nakagawa · Off: Marcelo Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Urawa · On: Hiiro Komori · Off: Kotaro Hayashi Corrected
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' FC Tokyo 3–0 Urawa · Soma Anzai
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' FC Tokyo 3–0 Urawa · Kein Sato
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' FC Tokyo · On: Dani Gómez · Off: Motoki Nagakura Corrected
FTFULL TIME FC Tokyo 3–0 Urawa
FTFC Tokyo 3–0 Urawa · FC Tokyo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Tokyo win42%

Draw26%

Urawa win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 07:00

Venue · Ajinomoto Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Tokyo

4-4-2

81 Kim Seung-gyu

22 Hirokazu Ishihara

24 Alexander Scholz

4 Hayato Inamura

6 Kashif Bangnagande

7 Soma Anzai

20 Shuto Nagano

27 Kyota Tokiwa

33 Kota Tawaratsumida

9 Marcelo Ryan

26 Motoki Nagakura

Coach · Rikizo Matsuhashi

Substitutes

10 · Kein Sato

15 · Rio Omori

71 · Fuki Yamada

39 · Teruhito Nakagawa

99 · Dani Gómez

1 · Hayate Tanaka

3 · Masato Morishige

44 · Kaede Suzuki

38 · Kio Tanaka

Urawa

4-3-3

1 Shusaku Nishikawa

6 Miki Yamane

2 Yuta Miyamoto

5 Kenta Nemoto

18 Kotaro Hayashi

25 Kaito Yasui

12 Tatsuki Seko

37 Ueki Hayate

7 Takuro Kaneko

42 Harumi Minamino

10 Matheus Sávio

Coach · Kwi-jae Cho

Substitutes

45 · Ado Onaiwu

13 · Ryoma Watanabe

36 · Renji Hidano

11 · Samuel Gustafson

17 · Hiiro Komori

23 · Koki Fukui

3 · Danilo Boza

88 · Yoichi Naganuma

33 · Shuta Sasa

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Tokyo

4-4-2

81 Kim Seung-gyu

22 Hirokazu Ishihara

24 Alexander Scholz

4 Hayato Inamura

6 Kashif Bangnagande

7 Soma Anzai

20 Shuto Nagano

27 Kyota Tokiwa

33 Kota Tawaratsumida

9 Marcelo Ryan

26 Motoki Nagakura

Coach · Rikizo Matsuhashi

Substitutes

10 · Kein Sato

15 · Rio Omori

71 · Fuki Yamada

39 · Teruhito Nakagawa

99 · Dani Gómez

1 · Hayate Tanaka

3 · Masato Morishige

44 · Kaede Suzuki

38 · Kio Tanaka

Urawa

4-3-3

1 Shusaku Nishikawa

6 Miki Yamane

2 Yuta Miyamoto

5 Kenta Nemoto

18 Kotaro Hayashi

25 Kaito Yasui

12 Tatsuki Seko

37 Ueki Hayate

7 Takuro Kaneko

42 Harumi Minamino

10 Matheus Sávio

Coach · Kwi-jae Cho

Substitutes

45 · Ado Onaiwu

13 · Ryoma Watanabe

36 · Renji Hidano

11 · Samuel Gustafson

17 · Hiiro Komori

23 · Koki Fukui

3 · Danilo Boza

88 · Yoichi Naganuma

33 · Shuta Sasa

Our number · fc tokyo winPublished 10 Oct 07:02

42% The market55%

Us42%

~~Market~~55%

We make FC Tokyo a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Tokyo win	42%	55%	−13
Draw	26%	23%	+3
Urawa win	31%	21%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	47%	57%	−10
Both teams to score	52%	57%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	79%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	26%	37%	−12
FC Tokyo or draw	69%	79%	−10
FC Tokyo clean sheet	31%	–	–
Urawa clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.8 9.0 5.3 2.1 1 10.7 12.5 7.2 2.8 2 7.5 8.7 5.1 3 3.5 4.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Tokyo down, Urawa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,654 J1 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Tokyo at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Urawa away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for FC Tokyo, 1.17 for Urawa. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 06:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~URA 0–0 FCT · FCT 1–1 URA · FCT 3–2 URA · URA 3–2 FCT

Form · last six in J1 League

FC TOKYO

WWDWWW2–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

URAWA

LWWWLW1–3 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kashiwa Reysol	9	+7	21
2	Vissel Kobe	9	+5	19
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	8	+14	17
4	Machida Zelvia	8	+11	17
5	FC Tokyo	8	+6	17
6	Kashima	9	+3	16
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	8	+4	14
8	Kawasaki Frontale	8	+4	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	8	+1	13
10	Urawa	8	−2	12
11	Cerezo Osaka	8	−5	11
12	Shimizu S-pulse	8	−2	10
13	Mito Hollyhock	8	0	9
14	Kyoto Sanga	8	−4	8
15	V-varen Nagasaki	8	−5	8
16	Nagoya Grampus	8	−7	6
17	Gamba Osaka	9	−8	6
18	Avispa Fukuoka	8	−3	4
19	Tokyo Verdy	8	−8	4
20	JEF United Chiba	8	−11	4